Lessons learned

[Eggs]

…..I had a few ‘holes’ in my book, it didn’t do a lot of harm this time but I shouldn’t ignore U.K. novice hurdlers like TNL.

[Old Vic]

Don’t back favourites in hunter chases

[Quevega]

One of the things that stood out for me this week was the amount of winners I got by stealing the value. And basically not switching off.
I am someone who will have multiple runners in most races, although sometimes will have just the one or two by the day.

If you think about it enough, we are basically shopping for prices all year round.

I'm no shoplifter but I did rob some prices. And I think that's because I spend a lot of time doing this, especially from Xmas onwards, my activity on here shows this.
So 4 things I'd point out that may help those that have the time to devote to it.
I'm sure many will do this but it's worth mentioning and reminding I reckon.

1- I'm sure some will do this from time to time but when key races are being run it is useful to have accounts open. Most of the time the bookies will grey out prices for Cheltenham on Saturday or Sunday runners, but sometimes they don't.

2- And when bookies go NRNB it's important to immediately scan the markets for mistakes they make, because they do. This is especially important if you build mini books (multiple runners) on the handicaps which I do every year.

3- Use the exchanges and think a bit outside the box, but not too much (hard to achieve)

4- Do the book (especially when it’s feasible) even when you're absolutely confident nothing bad can happen

Some examples, where it paid off and didn't pay off for me this year.

1.
Straight after the Challow - New Lion was left at 12-1 with Ladbrokes that could be boosted to 13-1. (was mentioned on here)
Bambino Fever (Skybet) was left at 14-1 after winning easily in Dublin (mentioned on here)

2.
Myretown was put up in Ladbrokes first NRNB market at 28-1 (whilst generally 16-1 everywhere else) (was mentioned on here)
Jagwar was put up on Skybet's first NRNB market for the Plate at 20-1 (was mentioned on here)

I mentioned all these seconds after placing in case anyone else would be interested.

Fucking thief and proud of it.

3.
Majborough was very successful for me because for what I thought were strange reasoning, many though he was going to go for longer trips, and this just seemed alien to me as the discusions on here showed. But the form line he had with Kargese and Gino made him look potentially exceptional. He was available at very big prices on the exchange for ages, ranging from 30-80's maybe more. smallish stakes on this and laying off him, helped me make a fully green book for the arkle (aside from Leau du sud) I took a risk on him, cos his price never attracted, and had a saver double instead. It actually left me with roughly 25pts return on all runners, except LDS. I did lose some very nice doubles on him losing but the race itself was nice enough.

Fact to File was available for between 25's and 50's for the Ryanair for quite a while, and with all the talk about Corbetts Cross on here going Ryanair, I was concentrating on him instead and Corbetts for Gold cup. Small stakes for sure. Discussed on here also, as I know some others got 50's on him before Charlie mentioned in his diary.
For me it was an obvious potential outcome and a price that would be clearly out of sync to reality.

Now don;t get me wrong, these were 2 strong results for this sort of practice and the balance to this is the money spaffed on theory's that do not come to fruition. But I think I'm learning all the time when to play and not to play, after being over imaginative in previous years.

4.
On a negative note, I did drop the ball every now and then. Most notably on the Champion hurdle.
Having got a win today of 25-1 on BDA and took the 11-2 C Hill when available. Plus several multiples linking with these. I thought there was no chance anything else could win.
Turns out I'm a thief and an idiot.
I had covered King of Kingsfield at 1000-1 but no others.
This was quite clearly a mistake as I could have covered State Man at 16's or bigger, and all the others at at least 50's and much bigger, for small amounts compared to the potential winnings on the big 2.
A schoolboy error, on a low runner race.
I actually think I would have done this, but was at the festival with no reception so couldn't (eye off the ball)

In summary. The main thing I pick up from the forum this season is a general air of despondency and cursing of luck etc

But I think the plain fact is - that you have to accept that if you're not prepared or are unable to put the time into this, then you have to be prepared to fail. So make fucking sure it's money you can lose.
I'm not prepared to fail but can afford to lose to a point, so I prepare as much as possible.

The cost of this is the energy and time it takes up from December onwards. Vs the profit.
I'd fucking love to make the same sort of profit without putting the time in but I'd need much more luck for this.
I try and remove the luck from the outcome as much as possible. But it is fucking draining.

I learn something from this forum all the time and that will never change, so want to thank each and every one of you.

You should always be prepared to learn. If someone has an opposing view, question them on it as they may have a point. Sometimes they won't though they'll just be being stubborn and single minded, and probably get the face on or ignore you if you ask too many questions. But always be curious anyway.

I will now set about doing ok at Aintree and Punchestown and then piss all my profits away on the Flat season.

[Quevega]

Another thing that just came to me.
The previous festival form was strong this year.

Golden Ace
Iknowthewayourethinkin
Marine Nationale
Bob Olinger

All won the four big races, and their form outside of the festival was no where near the same. But all winners at previous festivals.

In addition to these we also had.

Fact to File
Jasmin de Vaux
Jazzy Matty
Lossiemouth

Then winners this year with placed and strong form at the festival or winners at the track during the season.

Stumptown
Lecky Watson
Jagwar
Dinoblue
Jango Baie
Haiti Couleurs
Jimmy du Seuill
Kargese


Thats 16 out of 28 races and I've probably missed one or two, and I reckon some other winners will have course form or previous festival experience also.
And it's really only 25 races anyway as the Juvenile races and bumper don't count.

[Hurricane fly]

3- Use the exchanges and think a bit outside the box, but not too much (hard to achieve)

The exchanges are a must if you want to cover any outsiders, the top half of the market is often quite aligned but once you get to 33s and bigger the exchanges quickly become better value. Not one I always have open but every year I plan to do all the outsiders on the Foxhunters and Bumper and the exchange is vastly better

[darlojim]

Lay off some of your winnings on odds on shots! Going into multiple races with nice positions on odds on favourites which I've gotten nothing back is a real kick in the teeth, especially when its happened multiple times

Yeah this is a very good point. I laid off some Majborough bets (albeit in hindsight not enough) but it at least put me in the green for the race and also did the same with Ballyburn for a 30pt return minimum on the others as his price has just become stupidly short.

Fully planned on doing the same with F2F but his price never got short enough for me to lay - this worked out well luckily and also wanted to do the same with Kopeck, but again this didn't materialise as I had hoped, thinking the punters will all try get their money back in the last and he'd be well punted down.

No matter how good of a bet your on, I think if you're on for a decent return its worth risking some pts to guarantee yourself a return on the race.


One point of my own personally that I will be adjusting for next year, is I'll likely not play the hcaps (bar the boodles, county and pipe) until closer to the day, as plenty of picks were nigh on similar prices in some cases (nurburg 12s was 11s at 1 point on BFX for example) and I lost on the hcaps in the main.

[Eggs]

…..watch out for any Mullins unraced 4yo in TH

[riccirich]

A pretty obvious one, but be very careful backing willie mullins horses who you think could be a second/third string, due to likelihood of patrick mullins being on them.

Had my biggest ever return from a single on lecky watson this week, but I'm not exaggerating when I say if patrick was on him I genuinely don't think he would have won, and possibly wouldnt have placed. So i was thanking my lucky stars when i seen he had been deemed 4th best by the stable jockeys, whereas others would have seen that as a bad thing. I've seen people say it's a 5lb penalty for your horse with him on, I'd go as far as 10lb. Especially if it's a horse that needs to be ridden forward. I think if you swapped kargese and ethicals jockeys then he finishes ahead of her. I think of he was on jimmy du seuil instead of Danny then he doesnt win.

It's a serious factor that has to be considered, not just for severely denting your horses chances, but if there's a chance that patrick will be on then he'll drift in that scenario anyway and you'll get a bigger price if you still want to chance it.

[Joleg]

One of the things that stood out for me this week was the amount of winners I got by stealing the value. And basically not switching off.
I am someone who will have multiple runners in most races, although sometimes will have just the one or two by the day.

If you think about it enough, we are basically shopping for prices all year round.

I'm no shoplifter but I did rob some prices. And I think that's because I spend a lot of time doing this, especially from Xmas onwards, my activity on here shows this.
So 4 things I'd point out that may help those that have the time to devote to it.
I'm sure many will do this but it's worth mentioning and reminding I reckon.

1- I'm sure some will do this from time to time but when key races are being run it is useful to have accounts open. Most of the time the bookies will grey out prices for Cheltenham on Saturday or Sunday runners, but sometimes they don't.

2- And when bookies go NRNB it's important to immediately scan the markets for mistakes they make, because they do. This is especially important if you build mini books (multiple runners) on the handicaps which I do every year.

3- Use the exchanges and think a bit outside the box, but not too much (hard to achieve)

4- Do the book even when you're absolutely confident nothing bad can happen

Some examples, where it paid off and didn't pay off for me this year.

1.
Straight after the Challow - New Lion was left at 12-1 with Ladbrokes that could be boosted to 13-1. (was mentioned on here)
Bambino Fever (Skybet) was left at 14-1 after winning easily in Dublin (mentioned on here)

2.
Myretown was put up in Ladbrokes first NRNB market at 28-1 (whilst generally 16-1 everywhere else) (was mentioned on here)
Jagwar was put up on Skybet's first NRNB market for the Plate at 20-1 (was mentioned on here)

I mentioned all these seconds after placing in case anyone else would be interested.

Fucking thief and proud of it.

3.
Majborough was very successful for me because for what I thought were strange reasoning, many though he was going to go for longer trips, and this just seemed alien to me as the discusions on here showed. But the form line he had with Kargese and Gino made him look potentially exceptional. He was available at very big prices on the exchange for ages, ranging from 30-80's maybe more. smallish stakes on this and laying off him, helped me make a fully green book for the arkle (aside from Leau du sud) I took a risk on him, cos his price never attracted, and had a saver double instead. It actually left me with roughly 25pts return on all runners, except LDS. I did lose some very nice doubles on him losing but the race itself was nice enough.

Fact to File was available for between 25's and 50's for the Ryanair for quite a while, and with all the talk about Corbetts Cross on here going Ryanair, I was concentrating on him instead and Corbetts for Gold cup. Small stakes for sure. Discussed on here also, as I know some others got 50's on him before Charlie mentioned in his diary.
For me it was an obvious potential outcome and a price that would be clearly out of sync to reality.

Now don;t get me wrong, these were 2 strong results for this sort of practice and the balance to this is the money spaffed on theory's that do not come to fruition. But I think I'm learning all the time when to play and not to play, after being over imaginative in previous years.

4.
On a negative note, I did drop the ball every now and then. Most notably on the Champion hurdle.
Having got a win today of 25-1 on BDA and took the 11-2 C Hill when available. Plus several multiples linking with these. I thought there was no chance anything else could win.
Turns out I'm a thief and an idiot.
I had covered King of Kingsfield at 1000-1 but no others.
This was quite clearly a mistake as I could have covered State Man at 16's or bigger, and all the others at at least 50's and much bigger, for small amounts compared to the potential winnings on the big 2.
A schoolboy error, on a low runner race.
I actually think I would have done this, but was at the festival with no reception so couldn't (eye off the ball)

In summary. The main thing I pick up from the forum this season is a general air of despondency and cursing of luck etc

But I think the plain fact is - that you have to accept that if you're not prepared or are unable to put the time into this, then you have to be prepared to fail. So make fucking sure it's money you can lose.
I'm not prepared to fail but can afford to lose to a point, so I prepare as much as possible.

The cost of this is the energy and time it takes up from December onwards. Vs the profit.
I'd fucking love to make the same sort of profit without putting the time in but I'd need much more luck for this.
I try and remove the luck from the outcome as much as possible. But it is fucking draining.

I learn something from this forum all the time and that will never change, so want to thank each and every one of you.

You should always be prepared to learn. If someone has an opposing view, question them on it as they may have a point. Sometimes they won't though they'll just be being stubborn and single minded, and probably get the face on or ignore you if you ask too many questions. But always be curious anyway.

I will now set about doing ok at Aintree and Punchestown and then piss all my profits away on the Flat season.

Really good post Q

[Exar Essay]

I’m with you Quevega I’ve always felt I’ve been good at finding value, not so good at differentiating form lines. Building a book and sniping the value plays basically eliminates the need to compare the formlines. It also means you ensure victory even where it’s the last thing you expect.

[Quevega]

I’m with you Quevega I’ve always felt I’ve been good at finding value, not so good at differentiating form lines. Building a book and sniping the value plays basically eliminates the need to compare the formlines. It also means you ensure victory even where it’s the last thing you expect.

A combination of both is ideal.
My preference is to build smaller books with a lean towards what my read of the form is.
So includes a bit of jeopardy but is generally pretty safe over the duration of the festival.

It was discussed on here recently that sometimes a bet is a good bet even if you don’t like the horses chances.

And when you do take a price you think is good value , you can sometimes be rewarded for being wrong. It’s often more about beating SP by as much as possible than being a great judge. IMO - Especially antepost.
Its about getting the percentages in your favour.

using the examples I gave

I did not fancy the new lion at all - and doubt I’d even have felt the eventual SP was a good bet.

And I did not think Jagwar was that well handicapped either.

I was very much wrong on both. But was rewarded because I grabbed the value prices.

The other two I very much liked the form and prospects.

It’s not an approach for everyone as we all have different mindsets and bankrolls.

And there’s no doubt that more satisfaction is gained when backing a horse cos you’re convinced it has the form.

But also satisfying getting potential winners on board at much bigger than SP. This often frees you up to have a proper go at the one you really think will win.

[Exar Essay]

Quevega Yes, both ideal and I’m slowly learning to be a better judge of form, but like you, I’d never have picked the New Lion. Mind you, I think we both cheated there a little - if memory serves we sniped some 12/1 left up after the Challow.

But going full book, which I do, removes the uncertainty and finds a way to make my knowledge pay.

[Quevega]

Quevega Yes, both ideal and I’m slowly learning to be a better judge of form, but like you, I’d never have picked the New Lion. Mind you, I think we both cheated there a little - if memory serves we sniped some 12/1 left up after the Challow.

But going full book, which I do, removes the uncertainty and finds a way to make my knowledge pay.

It’s not cheating mate.
Its shit lining.

I know many book builders tend to have target returns on all runners and some target the same return from all.

What I would say to those that do this, is if you find you start to show better judgement or are generally good anyhow.

Id definitely abandon the target return for all and have a more nuanced book.

Back yourself more, but with a safety net. And accept lower returns or money back when you’re wrong.

[Quevega]

Anyone remember that phrase ?

Shit Liner.

Just came back to me just then.
Was when we used to play football as kids and you'd always get one kid hanging around the 6 yard box all game, doing fuck all, just waiting for the ball to pop up near the line and score.
Was it just a Sheffield thing in the 70's and 80's or is anyone else familiar with it ?

Here's Joe Elliott of Def Leppard using it.

Who is the best footballer in the band?

"Technically Sav would be the better player. But I scored way more goals than he ever did 'cause I was what they used to call a shit liner. Just give me the ball and I'll bang it in. Hattrick was my nickname all through the 80s. For obvious reasons. But Sav actually had an apprenticeship at Bramall Lane. He was never accepted by Wednesday as a player which broke his heart, but he got picked up by Sheffield United. He used to play for Sheffield Boys and Hallamshire Celtic and it was like, you know, Top goal scorer year in year out."

Up the Blades for tomorrow.

[Exar Essay]

It’s not cheating mate.
Its shit lining.

I know many book builders tend to have target returns on all runners and some target the same return from all.

What I would say to those that do this, is if you find you start to show better judgement or are generally good anyhow.

Id definitely abandon the target return for all and have a more nuanced book.

Back yourself more, but with a safety net. And accept lower returns or money back when you’re wrong.

Yeah each to their own. I had Poniros for a 160pt return as it was easy to get on. But only Lulamba and EID for 120pt. So sometimes it pays dividends. But I really couldn’t work out that race.

I took a much stronger view on Inothewayurthinkin which paid dividends.

I’ve shit lined again - PP left their GC market up during this years event. 20/1 about the winner was snaffled. Just missed Wodhooh too after the pipe as I was busy chasing out Kopek De Mee.