Lessons learned

[Quevega]

e.g. A Plus Tard, Energumene - winners (13 of the 28 didn't have prep runs in that period)

How many people here thought Shishkin wasn't in the top third of festival runners as you asserted, before it ran? What was its rating?

I counted all the festival races not just the grade 1s and 2s.

Nothing you have written changes the fact that horses who have their prep runs in that period are more likely winners than those that don't.

[Supermaster]

If you don't want to engage then don't engage - saves wasting time

[Saxon Warrior]

Some festival musings:

1, Be more selective. Wasted a lot of points on horses that went to different races, got injured or simply proved not good enough (often well in advance of the festival itself). The new 'greying out' policy will make this even more important.

2, Following on from the above, take advantage of horses that get pushed out after slightly disappointing early season runs. This has a double benefit as often horses being trained specifically for the Festival (which is what we want) will start slowly. TMSG hit 16's this year, Elimay went out to 8 or 9, Vauban hit 25's (poss 33's) and I remember Allaho drifting to 16's the year before. This is an indirect benefit of the Bet 365 cash-out scheme.

3, Bet more win only than ew. Better to do two horses win only than one horse ew. It's the winners that boost the overall points balance.

4, Leave the handicaps until NRNB at the very earliest. Even then, only take horses I'm very keen on and that I think will shorten. The 'on the day' drifts and extra places make 10.00-11.00 am on the day of the race the 'sweet spot' for placing bets. This also allows for ground conditions to be properly assessed. Commander of Fleet in this year's Coral being a good example.

5, Use the exchange to place an in-running lay order on horses with big returns. You just never know what might happen. GDC a good example, was matched for about 40K at 1.01.

6, Although it didn't work out in the results this year, remember the Elliot trends (hopefully Saxon continues his race planning threads). These represent some of the best ante-post value.

7, Never, ever, back a Nicholls horse ante-post.

Brilliant post jrjr - I have already updated all of the five months of the Irish Race Planning Diaries.

Updating one or two years full race history on each one of Gordon and Willie 120+ runners at the 2022 Festival is going to be a monumental task, and one I have to leave until after Punchestown to get all of the established race patterns on these horses and how their seasons finish off, and where Willie (in particular) places them.

I feel sure that I will have the desire to do all this in May/June, when the season has finished and I can devote time over a couple of weeks or so to build the 2022 seasons information into Gordon and Willie's Diaries, and make adjustment to all of the summary information on those races too.

[BigChaang]

Definite target is a must. Energumene, Allaho, APT, Flooring Porter and Honeysuckle all have clear targets IMO.

Agree Charlie , One of the first bet's i have done for 2023. , same as above ....

[charlie]

Agree Charlie , One of the first bet's i have done for 2023. , same as above ....

I'd caveat that with definite target and unlikely to lose on the way. There is a strong case for horses like TMSG to wait. If she returns on debut as fat this year as she was last year she'll lose and the bookies will push her, so there is a case for wait and see too.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd caveat that with definite target and unlikely to lose on the way. There is a strong case for horses like TMSG to wait. If she returns on debut as fat this year as she was last year she'll lose and the bookies will push her, so there is a case for wait and see too.

Given what happened this season, and being brought down in the Mares Hurdle, I'd be surprised if they hang about working back from the Mares Hurdle next season.

May end up a waste of a season, again, should anything happen in the race itself, don't think they'll be risking it.

[charlie]

Given what happened this season, and being brought down in the Mares Hurdle, I'd be surprised if they hang about working back from the Mares Hurdle next season.

May end up a waste of a season, again, should anything happen in the race itself, don't think they'll be risking it.

I suppose it depends on the horse and how patient they're willing to be. Some pack on condition over the summer others don't, and she looked like a tank last year.

[archie]

Assuming she's fit, she must surely be going for the Mares Champion at Punchestown. No rush to back her until then.

[BalthazarKing]

For me:
Need to avoid watching preview nights and thinking anything The Coddfather says is gospel...American Mike classic example- waisted a lot of my profit on Facile Vega covering AM - couldnt get his quote of 'he'll win by the straight' out my head. Hindsight i know easy to say after the fact. But previews on the whole clouded a lot of my judgement. Also if ground didnt go from GTS to Heavy within a few hours AM may well have ran better. Saying that FV could have too!

Antepost betting in the main may well be gone to certain extent. Bookies are quick to react taking away cash out and feel like we no longer have that edge. Think i may experiment starting from NRNB markets.

Need to avoid handicaps and play them for fun really can be an absolute minefield!

Worst festival profit wise for 4 years for me 395 points up feels like a loss with the close calls of TMSG, Gaelic Warrior, Tiger Roll, Shishkin, GDC and Allaphillipe.

Break now to clear head before Aintree

Giving this a bump. Thought a good time to have some reflection on last year fez and lessons learnt. Wonder how many have stuck to their post cheltenham reflection. Dear me I was very bitter about covering American Mike.Antepost is still very much alive for me i didn't follow that advice.
Note to self- preview nights pinch of salt & handicaps after final decs*
*until i get suckered into the talking plot job horse like i do every year

[opatcho]

Found my lessons learnt from March

These are the ones which are still going strong, have stuck closely to them :-)
- leave handicaps until the day
- use RPR’s for the season to verify thoughts on a horse
- don’t bother with the juvenile races
- ante post is pretty much dead, too much can change. Rather build up a post for the fez and fire at will without having an AP attachment


Opsss
- ignore the novices until a week before
Update: ermmm, not sure what I meant by this lol. I think this should have said "dont spend 90% your time trying to find the winner of the supreme"
- review the previous seasons champions, is there anything new that will beat them. If not, back then
Update: Annoyed with this one. Maries Rock should have been backed, but was sure she'd run in the stayers (silly!!). Energumene should have been backed in with double - I have nothing on him. Then again, I dodge a few bullets with the likes of Honeysuckle - I had a feeling she'd be available at a decent price later in the year. Same with A Plus Tard. Allaho, was too short anyway at the start of the season.

N/A - these were more of a observation to carry into the week
- trends are to be broken, so many where done over this week. A horse that didn’t wear a tongue tie won the pertemps, Willie won the QMCC, a tolworth horse has won the supreme, a handicap hurdler won the Arkle because he was the best jumper best hose, horses that didn’t win the GC the year before has gone off to win again.
- knew there was no pace in the GC, no idea why I didn’t lump on A Plus Tard
- said Mullins and Townsend will have a good Friday, I have it written down, didn’t back any of his horses today
- be flexible on the day to change selection of market is heavily against yours

- started way too early this year, burnt out by Jan where I couldn’t be arse to spend time going through a race properly
Update: I've been aware of this one all season, the 2-3 weeks off during the froze has helped break up the schedule, and I've ignored most of the 'rubbish' cards. Plan to have a 2 week break ahead of the DRF, and then 1 more before the fez so I'm feeling fresh and excited

[opatcho]

I also think Willie pretty much helped antepost punters this season more than any other trainer. (fairly obvious with 10 winners really )

He nominated the right races for his 2 star bumper horses early enough.
Stattler for the NH chase before the season started.
The mentions for Facile Vega started before he was even named.
The Gaelic Warrior and State Man cases looked obvious early enough.
He ran Vauban early enough in the season. which he doesn't always do with his best juveniles.
When the Nice Guy won his maiden, he immediately mentioned the bartlett as the next race.
With regards GDC, not as early or obvious but they were pretty much telling people the Turners for a few weeks. And had never committed to further at any point really, apart from in a roundabout fashion.
He even gave people the heads up on Elimay (not having as tough an opponent) and she obliged - just.
He didn't even switch Concertista, although he should have, as most of his runners in the mares had weaknesses in a weak renewal.
And the lack of declarations for Appreciate It only meant one thing IMO.

...2. Trust in Willie (to a point) - at least more so than other trainers.

Interesting this...
Who has Mullin's been blunt and direct about in terms of where they are running
FV?, DD?, State Man, Lossie... G-Warrior? (sure he has mentioned the ballymore months back)

[Hurricane fly]

We are about 4/5 weeks away but just remember the odds the 2 weeks before the festival are shocking, try not to get involved outside of situations like the Turners last year