Lessons learned

[Pendil1111]

Hi All,

I didn’t have the best of festivals as I was slightly down overall, although one more win would have switched me into profit. I attribute this loss to four main reasons and I would really appreciate some thoughts on how you get the well fancied horses on side. Before that, the three main reasons for my overall loss were:

1. I had eight 2nd placed horses on which I had win only bets except one (Jonbon, Epatante, Tiger Roll, Minella Indo. Imperial Alacazar, Janadil, Winged Leader, Queens Brook). Epatante was my e/w bet.
2. I suffered heavily with some injuries on well fancied horses which I had at fancy prices (Buzz, In this World, Ferny Hollow, Brandy Love, She Wears It Well, Balko Des Flos, Gerry Colombe, Let’s Be Clear About It)
3. I suffered heavily with some horses switching to other races (Dysart Dynamo, LHP, Journey With Me, Envoi Allen, Capodanno, Hollow Games, Vanillier)
4. I failed to get well fancied horses on side because I thought the prices being offered by bookies were a joke, although not all of the ones I thought would win did e.g. Honeysuckle, Allaho, Constitution Hill, Sir Gerhard, A Plus Tard, Shishkin, Bob Olinger, GDC, Billaway, Energumene, Delta Work). For example, I can’t recall Honeysuckle, Allaho, Bob Olinger, APT being priced at more than 5-1 even a year ahead.

No doubt numbers #1 and #4 are related. I used B365 and William Hill. Previously I had used WH WAR market but I felt this year the odds had contracted so much that they took the value out of the market, so I relied more heavily on B365 and targeted specific races but I suffered a lot by the removal of Cash Out, which I understand was much more quick versus previous years. In previous years one was able to get Shishkin at 25-1 TWAR, whereas this year, as a similar comparison, I think Jonbon was about 10-1 TWAR (don’t remember exactly). Hence with respect to Jonbon I took 25-1 for the Supreme.

Even with next year’s festival in mind the odds of the well fancied horses are already very prohibitive e.g Facile Vega, Honeysuckle, APT etc. The thought of wading in with significant sums of cash one year in advance of the festival to secure very stingy odds holds little appeal. The chances of them making it to the festival, turning up in the right race and the actually winning play on my mind and tend to steer me away from going in. Obviously some of the targets are pretty obvious like Honeysuckle and APT.

Clearly getting eight 2nd placed horses says I’m doing something right but how do people get these shorties on side despite the prohibitive odds? I welcome your thoughts. Thanks.

My advice for what it's worth......identify horses with a definite target......like my 3 were Honeysuckle , Bob Olinger and Shishkin for this year (done them as a trixie) after Bob won his warm up race , priced at 7/4 Honey , 6/4 Shishkin and 11/4 Bob Olinger to return ?2,093 for ?40 stakes , loads of good reading on the forum to help you select your fancied horses. Nearer the time Skybet were offering good specials which came good like Honey and Vauban or Honey and Facile Vega. Other bets to look for are horses to win a prep race and a race at Cheltenham (Honeysuckle Irish Champion hurdle and Cheltenham) Sir Gerhard at DRF and ANY race at Cheltenham.....these are only a selection of what I found but there are plenty of very good contributors on this forum and I would thoroughly recommend reading up on all the races you are interested in ! Good luck mate.

[charlie]

Definite target is a must. Energumene, Allaho, APT, Flooring Porter and Honeysuckle all have clear targets IMO.

[Quevega]

But only about a third of runners have their previous runs in that period

Yeah
the best third

[Supermaster]

Yeah
the best third

e.g. better than Shishkin, Mount Ida, Concertista - all short priced

[HoldenTheReins]

I'm curious to other peoples view on this. Where do you stand now with having Elliott in the book?

Was his festival poor due to stable form?

New handicapping?

Not good enough horses?

[Quevega]

e.g. better than Shishkin, Mount Ida, Concertista - all short priced

Losers.
I think you understand what I've said.
No point labouring it.
All the grade 1 & 2 prep races are held in that period.
So it's obvious a lot of winners would come from that period, as has been the case, most years, since the Dublin festival began.

[Nwfb89]

I'm curious to other peoples view on this. Where do you stand now with having Elliott in the book?

Was his festival poor due to stable form?

New handicapping?

Not good enough horses?

I think he'd have to be slightly disappointed especially in the hcaps,he's normally mustard in the hcaps but this year he seemed to scatter gun most of them with 5,6,7 runners in some, alot of the graded horses ran well enough I thought

[Istabraq]

I'm curious to other peoples view on this. Where do you stand now with having Elliott in the book?

Was his festival poor due to stable form?

New handicapping?

Not good enough horses?

There was a clear change of policy by the UK handicapping team this year and that resulted in/contributed to UK horses winning five of the nine handicaps, given Elliots record in recent years he appears to be one who has suffered most in this regard but it’s only year one (of the new policy) so hard to get too hung up on this as a trend.

Zanihiyr ran well, Conflated could have gone close, Galvin ran about as well as could have been expected, so as was pointed out above his horses were running OK…

[OverTheLast]

There was a clear change of policy by the UK handicapping team this year and that resulted in/contributed to UK horses winning five of the nine handicaps, given Elliots record in recent years he appears to be one who has suffered most in this regard but it’s only year one (of the new policy) so hard to get too hung up on this as a trend.

Zanihiyr ran well, Conflated could have gone close, Galvin ran about as well as could have been expected, so as was pointed out above his horses were running OK…

Farouk D’Alene ran a cracker, American Mike probably ran to form

[Middle_Of_March]

Main lesson to myself would be not to be so stubborn on race targets.

I was adamant Sir Gerhard would end up supreme after the Dublin festival because that’s Willies MO from his winner of the 2m race there. Stubborn.
I was adamant Galopin was a three miler because he just always looked that way to myself and so many others. Stubborn.
I was adamant Dysarthria Dynamo was a Ballymore horse. Stubborn.

As a result, i let various each way and win multiples (yankees, doubles, trixies) with each other and Gaelic Warrior go off with them all down by the Monday night despite having potential to be my best looking multiples on paper if targets went my way. However, I was far too stubborn and lost far too many points by not allowing the possibility of any or all of them switching to enter my head until it was too late.

[Ice]

There was a clear change of policy by the UK handicapping team this year and that resulted in/contributed to UK horses winning five of the nine handicaps, given Elliots record in recent years he appears to be one who has suffered most in this regard but it’s only year one (of the new policy) so hard to get too hung up on this as a trend.

Zanihiyr ran well, Conflated could have gone close, Galvin ran about as well as could have been expected, so as was pointed out above his horses were running OK…

Ginto (r.i.p) was also in the process of running a very good race, looked the likely winner to my untrained eye.

[Bollinger]

My advice for what it's worth......identify horses with a definite target......like my 3 were Honeysuckle , Bob Olinger and Shishkin for this year (done them as a trixie) after Bob won his warm up race , priced at 7/4 Honey , 6/4 Shishkin and 11/4 Bob Olinger to return ?2,093 for ?40 stakes , loads of good reading on the forum to help you select your fancied horses. Nearer the time Skybet were offering good specials which came good like Honey and Vauban or Honey and Facile Vega. Other bets to look for are horses to win a prep race and a race at Cheltenham (Honeysuckle Irish Champion hurdle and Cheltenham) Sir Gerhard at DRF and ANY race at Cheltenham.....these are only a selection of what I found but there are plenty of very good contributors on this forum and I would thoroughly recommend reading up on all the races you are interested in ! Good luck mate.

Really good post here Pendil.

I’ve tried to learn my lessons over the last decade - but the simple,simple,simple truth is - we do everything we can to identify everything and every market we want inside before the event…….but we only find out the answers afterwards.

Chris Cook wrote an exceptional article in the Racing Post yesterday about how the festival is now changing and has gradually changed over the last decade in terms of the amount of faves/top trainer figures going in.

Willie Mullins had 10 winners - only 1 won at greater odds of 5/2.

16/28 of the winners won at odds of 3/1 or less.

Id rather people not quote or comment here, but read the article. It’s a good ‘un, with great points made.



And the kinda point here, coupled with your own thoughts is - yes, a horse like Allaho at 3/1 two mins after he’s won the Ryanair might seem miserly. But within 30 mins, everyone’s taken a share of that pie and the 2/1 by the time the Gold Cup’s run the next day is horribly unappealing. But the 3/1 the day before looks a steal. You can’t think about horses getting injured - youhave to get on very good horses at the very,very top of the market. Failing to do this only results in a quick way to the poor house.

We know Allaho is going Ryanair next year, and I believe that is 99.99% certain. Take the miserly 3/1 they offer straight afterwards - it’s horrible doing so, but you know within an hour it’s only going to shorten.

And you know there’s a very good chance a year later it’ll be 4/6.

Forget horses getting injured - that’s out of your control, the traders control, and the bookmakers control.

[RufusFlynn]

Things to note:

1. Paul Nicholls can't be relied on.
This is not a new lesson but a good reminder - Cheltenham is not his track. Yes, the ground went against BMG on the Weds but an antepost bet on a Nicholls horse comes with extra risks.

2. Leave the handicaps (until a few days before)
Backing the handicaps antepost even with NRNB just isn't really worth it - the prices are pushed out nearer/on the day and the extra places down to 7th or 8th provides a far larger EW safety net

3. The previous years handicap winners rarely go in again.
Obviously there has been a few over the years, but handicap winners are normally 'well in' the year they win and then never get back that same advantage or fail to step up in class.

4. Look for the class horse in a handicap.
Obvious really but the likes of Commander of Fleet in the Coral and Ballyadam in the County went off at 50/1.

5. It pays to follow the Albert Bartlett horses from the previous year.
Of all the novice hurdles, the form of the longer race does tend to hold up. Vanillier, Oscar Elite, Stattler & Alaphilippe from last years AB were all in the places this time around.
Janidil & Thyme Hill from 2020.
Minella Indo, Allaho & Commander of Fleet from the 2019 race.

6. The clues are there.
In this instance, Venetia's good week. She had previously disclosed about the virus but had said that if the horses were healthy they would run. The yard had been in good form all season and so in retrospect any actual runners at the Festival should have been taken seriously. On the Weds she had a winner and 2 big priced places. Friday's runners all went off big odds - backing her runners blind would have paid well.

[RufusFlynn]

I'm curious to other peoples view on this. Where do you stand now with having Elliott in the book?

Was his festival poor due to stable form?

New handicapping?

Not good enough horses?

I think as others have said - mixed bag across the week and difficult to pinpoint one answer.

But part of me has thought that it was probably beneficial for the headlines that Gordy wasn't in the winners too often last week and that for the first year back post Covid it was Rachel that stole the show.

[Supermaster]

Losers.
I think you understand what I've said.
No point labouring it.
All the grade 1 & 2 prep races are held in that period.
So it's obvious a lot of winners would come from that period, as has been the case, most years, since the Dublin festival began.

e.g. A Plus Tard, Energumene - winners (13 of the 28 didn't have prep runs in that period)

How many people here thought Shishkin wasn't in the top third of festival runners as you asserted, before it ran? What was its rating?

I counted all the festival races not just the grade 1s and 2s.

Nothing you have written changes the fact that horses who have their prep runs in that period are more likely winners than those that don't.