Lessons learned

[Dandrew99]

Leave handicaps until final decs… leave handicaps until final decs… leave handicaps until final decs…

Told myself that every bloody year I've done it, it's a dangerous cycle
1) Tell yourself not to back handicaps until the decs
2) Spot the handicap good ting
3) Realise there's about 10 handicap good tings per race
4) Wish you hadn't backed any handicap good tings
5) Repeat



We need a support group to stop us doing these things...

[Nathaniel99999]

1. Only bet on the handicaps only when its NRNB or once final decs are out.

2. Do bets AFTER the Dublin race festival and when the NRNB markets are available during or after this festival. (Ferny hollow is an example when loads of people had it and then was declared non runner and people lost out ante post)

3. Members like myself need to keep a diary, I am still new to the forum but will try to find the time to do a diary for next national hunt season.

[Ray]

Told myself that every bloody year I've done it, it's a dangerous cycle
1) Tell yourself not to back handicaps until the decs
2) Spot the handicap good ting
3) Realise there's about 10 handicap good tings per race
4) Wish you hadn't backed any handicap good tings
5) Repeat



We need a support group to stop us doing these things...

Yeah massively this..this is all i need to remember going forward cos for rhe other races im the absolute tits

[Eggs]

….not backing early in handicaps:

…be more selective in any race markets. The ‘win today’ market was more productive than ‘a/r market’ for me.

[Benjy23]

….not backing early in handicaps:

…be more selective in any race markets. The ‘win today’ market was more productive than ‘a/r market’ for me.

Think the 'win today' market I need to look at more closely. After the L'homme Presse win today and Turner's bets. Not sure if there was a 'win today and RSA' or 'win today and a/r' offer at the time.

[Eggs]

Think the 'win today' market I need to look at more closely. After the L'homme Presse win today and Turner's bets. Not sure if there was a 'win today and RSA' or 'win today and a/r' offer at the time.

….the 66-1 for Facile to win the CB and a/r next year is already a nice one to have in the book. Can’t recall the a/r offer for LP (I don’t think the RSA was offered).

Punchestown next month is usually a decent one to consider, it was there last year that the 40-1 GDC & a/r was offered.

[Odin]

Gotta do a full breakdown of everything, but the key takeaway on my side so far is that handicap good things do exist - they just aren't always in the guise that you expect.

I would argue that there were 3 handicap good things this year:

Gaelic Warrior (beat himself)
State Man (won)
Langer Dan (brought down, we'll never know)

The reason this is so interesting to me is that anyone who was on the ball (I wasn't) could have got Gaelic Warrior at 12/1 post receiving his mark. Langer Dan was available at 16/1 or 20/1 any race I think, as well as 7/1 post reappearance. I had State Man at 10/1 in a few multiples that didn't come in. Obviously State Man was the only winner from these three and SP was 11/4, so a small loss on the 3, but he was available at 7/2 through the morning and if you'd got the 10/1 it was a comfortable profit on the three 'good' things, let alone any ew returns from Gaelic if you went that way.

Note - there aren't many good things. In fact, this is the first year I ever remember there being 3 from the last 5 years, but they definitely are there if you're able to find them and usually take the guise of an unexposed novice or a horse who has been kept back for most of the season (through injury or design), keeping their mark at an appropriate level for the targeted race.

[Hurricane fly]

Odds two weeks before the festival up until the day are the worst odds of the year try to leave them alone rather than ramping up!

[Ray]

I would say this aswell..we look at cheltenham festival for the whole year, people in here have already got bets for 2023 and are starting to look at that already..which is why we do well in this forum..leading up to the festival on preview nights and shows etc i think its important to stick to your guns and not panic, because we look at this week with alot more scrutiny then any tipsters and pundits on these previews they must look at it for about 2-3 months and what they put up can cause panic and make you want to start adding pointless bets, i think its important to just back yourself and your own obsession

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Odds two weeks before the festival up until the day are the worst odds of the year try to leave them alone rather than ramping up!

I agree with this. I did a few bets in the handicaps after NRNB was introduced and the price of the selections were often bigger on the day. The only exceptions to this were the handicap good things like State Man where it was obvious they are a graded animal running in a handicap.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Gotta do a full breakdown of everything, but the key takeaway on my side so far is that handicap good things do exist - they just aren't always in the guise that you expect.

I would argue that there were 3 handicap good things this year:

Gaelic Warrior (beat himself)
State Man (won)
Langer Dan (brought down, we'll never know)

The reason this is so interesting to me is that anyone who was on the ball (I wasn't) could have got Gaelic Warrior at 12/1 post receiving his mark. Langer Dan was available at 16/1 or 20/1 any race I think, as well as 7/1 post reappearance. I had State Man at 10/1 in a few multiples that didn't come in. Obviously State Man was the only winner from these three and SP was 11/4, so a small loss on the 3, but he was available at 7/2 through the morning and if you'd got the 10/1 it was a comfortable profit on the three 'good' things, let alone any ew returns from Gaelic if you went that way.

Note - there aren't many good things. In fact, this is the first year I ever remember there being 3 from the last 5 years, but they definitely are there if you're able to find them and usually take the guise of an unexposed novice or a horse who has been kept back for most of the season (through injury or design), keeping their mark at an appropriate level for the targeted race.

I know what you mean Odin but one could argue Gaelic Warrior wasn’t a ‘good thing’ as he ran his race and didn’t win. Yes he jumped to the right but that has to be taken into account when analysing the value. That said, he was clearly value at double figure prices and had I been on the ball I would have backed him. As a matter of interest, where could his mark have been seen earliest? He didn’t run in Ireland or the UK so at what point does the mark become visible and where?

[Odin]

I know what you mean Odin but one could argue Gaelic Warrior wasn’t a ‘good thing’ as he ran his race and didn’t win. Yes he jumped to the right but that has to be taken into account when analysing the value. That said, he was clearly value at double figure prices and had I been on the ball I would have backed him. As a matter of interest, where could his mark have been seen earliest? He didn’t run in Ireland or the UK so at what point does the mark become visible and where?

Yeah, I'm happy to clarify I meant 'supposed good things' - given they didn't all win.

For me there wasn't one in the Ultima this year (Galahad Quest wasn't for me, but I piled in on the respected advice and have no issue with the outcome). The Coral and Grand Annual were both write offs due to the going. The Pertemps looked wide open between Gordy's (which turned out to be wrong in itself). The Plate didn't have a standout for me anywhere, whereas the Kim Muir would have done in Frontal Assault if Gordy's were running well.

Gaelic Warrior was entered at Cheltenham on Trials Day. I noted his mark in the Irish horses in British handicaps thread in the members section. I didn't have a bet at that point, but knew he was on a Fred Winter mark if they wanted to go there.

[Madmoose]

The use of bet365 going forward i need to rethink after the amount of times they greyed out selections ahead of schedule, shame only betfair and pp have cash out antepost

[Irish Rugby]

I would say this aswell..we look at cheltenham festival for the whole year, people in here have already got bets for 2023 and are starting to look at that already..which is why we do well in this forum..leading up to the festival on preview nights and shows etc i think its important to stick to your guns and not panic, because we look at this week with alot more scrutiny then any tipsters and pundits on these previews they must look at it for about 2-3 months and what they put up can cause panic and make you want to start adding pointless bets, i think its important to just back yourself and your own obsession

A lot of these types around the time of the preview nights, which appeared to have expanded evermore this year (less should be more) are trying to find value at that point. 2 WEEKS BEFORE THE FESTIVAL. This year, that would have been Haut En Colours in the Arkle, Beacon Edge in the BANC, to give 2 examples.

Yes, you guys on here, don't panic. You're well ahead of many of these media types.

[Atlantic Viking]

Don't discount English form so readily.

NB: Wear thicker socks/always carry a blister pack