Lessons learned

[Istabraq]

Maybe not for this thread but I still don't know when I should be backed E/W or going win only or not. How do you all decide? What are you basing it off?

I think most pros would tell you to back win only and that standard each way terms for ante post bets offer poor value against the risk, but there are definitely exceptions, particularly in races you know will cut up but you can secure 3 places even though the race is likely to only see 5/6 line up.
Also, a few firms went NRNB and 5 places on the handicaps in February so there has to be some value there.
But as others have said you will probably find your own comfort spot...

[mayo]

Ruby is obviously a legend but he had one win in his last season at Cheltenham. I think Paul Townend getting way too much flak here. Gaultstats has talked lots about jockey momentum and Rachael had that all week. Paul had a huge expectation on his shoulders but not sure he did much wrong. If he had sent Kilcruit on and front two cut one anothers throats Willie wouldnt have thanked him. Chacun Por Soi found zilch - maybe pace was factor but you wouldnt have said that before the race. Blackmore, Townend and Kennedy are the new big 3 and won nearly half the races between them.

[Istabraq]

Ruby is obviously a legend but he had one win in his last season at Cheltenham. I think Paul Townend getting way too much flak here. Gaultstats has talked lots about jockey momentum and Rachael had that all week. Paul had a huge expectation on his shoulders but not sure he did much wrong. If he had sent Kilcruit on and front two cut one anothers throats Willie wouldnt have thanked him. Chacun Por Soi found zilch - maybe pace was factor but you wouldnt have said that before the race. Blackmore, Townend and Kennedy are the new big 3 and won nearly half the races between them.

Yeah I agree, time to accept that Rachael is just riding on a different level and had all the answers to whatever was thrown at her.
I can't see that Townend did much wrong all week...

[Star De Mohaison]

Take a look at the bend just after the 2nd last in the Ballymore, she tightens up round the bend keeping Bravemansgame in, that ensures that Gaillard Du Mesnil is not getting up on the inside (probably doesn't have the pace to take that gap anyway). Just class race riding.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Also loved her ride on Quilixios, loved the way she had Zanahiyr penned in. It’s got to the stage where if she has you penned in like that turning for home you are staring down the barrel

[FinalFurlong91]

Paul did nothing wrong all week

In all the instances where he was boxed in Rachel simply had much more horse underneath her

Look at when al boum got boxed in, if he was travelling well he had plenty of time to go through the gap

the worst ride of the week was mark walsh on elimay, spending half the race on the girth of colreevy who was jumping into elimay at every fence. He takes her back a little and goes up colreevys inside when she goes to the right that result is reversed imo.

Though Skelton on third time lucki and shan blue were up there too

[Redbridge]

[QUOTE=FinalFurlong91;n304028]Paul did nothing wrong all week

In all the instances where he was boxed in Rachel simply had much more horse underneath her

Look at when al boum got boxed in, if he was travelling well he had plenty of time to go through the gap


The game is all about opinions but if you think the ride he gave Kilcruit in the Bumper was a good ride ?
He was in the wrong place throughout in a slowly run race and it was obvious to me that a slow pace indicates a sudden kick from the front which dually occurred and the winner was into full stride with a 2l lead whilst he was sandwiched between two other animals, Kilcruit took a while to pick up whilst the winner was in full flow heading for home.
Do you think he would ride the race the same way given the chance ? he rode every race in the same fashion on the rail following the pacemakers and if the pace sticks to the rail he would always need a clear path to switch to cover any finisher to his outer, it never cost him any other race other than momentum.

Have a look at his only ride at Clonmel yesterday 5.05 he chose to track the worst jumper in the race throughout the final mile with only 5 runners but only three contested throughout.

[FinalFurlong91]

If you aren't on a front runner you are always a hostage to fortune arent you?

At the DRF kilcruit got lucky and they went like the clappers and the pace collapsed

At Cheltenham there was no pace and sir gerhard didn't come back

I suppose townend couldve made a mid race move but that rarely ends well as you use up energy the horse needs at the end

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

This is really Saxon Warrior’s point, but be wary backing well handicapped horses antepost for handicaps when the prize money is better elsewhere. RWF was a case in point for the Kim Muir although I actually feel more sorry for those who backed Time To Get Up in the same race. At least with RWF the risk of going elsewhere had been mooted by connections, TTGU was really hammered in the betting from about 3-4 weeks out and I for one was really surprised that this support didn’t at least confirm he would be heading for the Kim Muir

[Old Vic]

Anyone change their bets based on horses behaviour pre-race ?

It would never have been an option for me on course because I generally don't bet once I get there.

Dont have a a great eye for this but a few have said Envoi Allen and Zanahiyr both got lit up pre-race.

[Redbridge]

"Anyone change their bets based on horses behaviour pre-race ?"

I tend like most on here to bet A/P so it's too late but I have noted on the flat that certain players only play when the horse is behind the stalls and they seem price insensitive on SPs but happy with their animal.

"It would never have been an option for me on course because I generally don't bet once I get there."

Same here, very hardly bet on course.

"Dont have a a great eye for this but a few have said Envoi Allen and Zanahiyr both got lit up pre-race."

I held a suspicion that Zahahiyr would turn up a bit fresh after having a gap between appearances but I was stuck with my A/P.

[Kevloaf]

Anyone change their bets based on horses behaviour pre-race ?

It would never have been an option for me on course because I generally don't bet once I get there.

Dont have a a great eye for this but a few have said Envoi Allen and Zanahiyr both got lit up pre-race.

I never leave it late enough for that to ever be a factor for me in general terms.

May be a bit of confirmation-bias I feel with things like that too. Like, I'd remember it happening and a horse losing but never marking a horse up for being the same yet still winning.

Then again, I don't find myself in that spot often.

[Kevloaf]

Maybe not for this thread but I still don't know when I should be backed E/W or going win only or not. How do you all decide? What are you basing it off?

I rarely back anything less than 20/1 before we get to August/Sept

I have no problem going each way at 20/1 (1/5 the odds) ante post.


If day of race markets, I'd back each way down to 7/2 depending on circumstances.


I'm an advocate of 'each way' but it's almost always horse-by-horse depending on guessing about the eventual field size and rivals.

[The King Pimm]

I gave up masterbation for Lent this year and I genuinely believe it made a difference to my good luck and good fortune. I made a commitment to do it in work on Shrove Tuesday when struggling to flip pancakes and have stuck with it so far...just a week to go and I have experienced my most profitable festival so far. I was brought up Catholic and I am finally coming around to the idea that God doesn’t mind me drinking and gambling but does have an issue with me convincing my brain that my hand is the loving affection of a female companion so I have quit mid morning hand shandy’s and became a winner!!

[Stormez]

I gave up masterbation for Lent this year and I genuinely believe it made a difference to my good luck and good fortune. I made a commitment to do it in work on Shrove Tuesday when struggling to flip pancakes and have stuck with it so far...just a week to go and I have experienced my most profitable festival so far. I was brought up Catholic and I am finally coming around to the idea that God doesn’t mind me drinking and gambling but does have an issue with me convincing my brain that my hand is the loving affection of a female companion so I have quit mid morning hand shandy’s and became a winner!!

Hand shandy’s