Lessons learned

[Altior]

Two simple rules going forward. The latter I stuck to this year, the former broke my heart by being stubborn and holding onto what I had pre decs.

Don't back anyone in the handicaps until the week of the festival.

Only back ap for the open field and novice races.

[Old Vic]

I think there is some value to be had in betting in handicaps once they have gone NRNB. I am not sure weights make that much difference and can be usually worked out to a reasonable degree. IMO the only long range punt in handicaps should maybe be in the Pertemps ?

Grade1s are different and there probably is some antepost value between now and end of Punchestown if you can take trainer quotes etc at face value and have the fastest finger.

I am struggling to understand how I failed to make the extra place offers pay but a bit of bad luck played a part particularly in the Boys race.

[Istabraq]

I think there is some value to be had in betting in handicaps once they have gone NRNB.

I agree chief, but the multiple entries always a worry, I can’t tell you how much I spent chasing Column of Fire around only to find he stayed in his box...

[robith]

- Getting early antepost prices in Grade 1 fancies pays
- NRNB once it comes into play should take precedence over price (thankfully a positive learning!)
-There is plenty of value on the day, especially in the handicaps, but also extra places (Aspire Tower with BOG and 5 places almost returned me as much as Honeysuckle did)
- This year was a bit of a perfect storm for my style and shouldn't be banked on repeating

[Old Vic]

I agree chief, but the multiple entries always a worry, I can’t tell you how much I spent chasing Column of Fire around only to find he stayed in his box...

You got off light Either of Gabynako or Falcano would have given me my biggest winner of the week.

[Madmoose]

I think there is some value to be had in betting in handicaps once they have gone NRNB. I am not sure weights make that much difference and can be usually worked out to a reasonable degree. IMO the only long range punt in handicaps should maybe be in the Pertemps ?

Grade1s are different and there probably is some antepost value between now and end of Punchestown if you can take trainer quotes etc at face value and have the fastest finger.

I am struggling to understand how I failed to make the extra place offers pay but a bit of bad luck played a part particularly in the Boys race.

Galopin Des Champs a prime example at 33/1 nrnb

[Leman14]

I've already written myself some "rules" in my Notes on my phone (where I keep a note of all my AP bets). Let's see how long I stick to them!

• Leave Handicaps until Decs / extra places available and go EW.
  • I had one winner in the handicaps last week - all my AP Handicap bets were "to win"
  • Side note - as mentioned above, maybe with the exception of the Pertemps
• I tried (and failed) cross-doubles on each day between handicap races - it doesn't mean it doesn't work - just not in my usual staking plan and not something I'll repeat
• TRUST the antepost selections!
  • Whilst I was massively up for the week (like most ) - I LOST 60pts betting during the week. This was mostly to "plug" gaps and some hedging of my position on Quilixios. (I would probably still hedge my position on Quilixios - given the gaping chasm between outcomes)
  • THIS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST TO STICK TO
• When considering multiples - focus more on Doubles (rather than Trebles/ACCA's) - unless a Free Bet on a RAB.
  • I'm not alone in that these proved quite successful this year.
  • Whilst I can't guarantee that this would happen next time, with only two selections - you have more chance of the bet still being live by the time the festival starts!

How I missed any obvious ones??

[FaugheenTheMachine]

What I did with the handicaps this time was started backing them (mainly using info off here) around 6 weeks before hand; and how I did it was to say right this Saturday I’m doing the Pertemps for example.....found a football team or two that paid around even money and used that as a stake. Managed to get plenty on side (not many winners tbh but it meant I had better prices on the day at least!)

[JackieMoon33]

I say (and ignore) this every year, but the Albert Bartlett is one of the toughest open races to land from an ante post perspective. I put up Stattler in April for the race and despite going off 7/2F, I was never overly confident in him winning. A quick glance at the previous winners highlights the prices returned and the fact that few winners would have been backed early in the season.

However, my 2022 shortlist already contains a few that I have in mind for this race so I'll no doubt ignore this advice and roll the dice again.

[TigerRolllllll]

Positives to do more of....

1 Antepost doubles: i always do as many form or stable related doubles as i can see (incl v long priced ones) and also run shorter priced horses combined with ones i feel are overpriced at the time will shorten (eg: Gavin, Bob olinger, etc)

Every year, these are the best returning part of my book and again were well over 200% up. Be brave.....half of my bets were actually dead by the race, yet the returns are still there, so get plenty in. The theory of multiplying value definitely holds every year

2. NRNB - great time to add EW, without fav and hcaps (see below re ante-post). Did particularly well on smaller fields and very few of the Hcap prices dropped in this market from ante-post (once a few bookies were NRNB)

3. Early season prices.....get the key horses in the book as early as possible

4. Cashout is not crucial. I decided to do very little cashout this year to help protect key accounts and test the principle.....and still had a very healthy return. It also meant in a few races, that i was not worried about a few horses late switching where i had them in 2 races (Appreciate It, Royal Peg, etc)......so use washout sparingly in future


Negatives to do less of...

1. Hcap ante-post.....very year i convince myself to do these and every year i have lots of dead bets and say i won't do again. Note to self....read this in January !!

2. NRNB doubles......reduce these to form or stable related only. Longer-priced horses at this stage are just that (long). Returns on doubles at this stage were much lower

3. THE BIG LESSON: BRITISH HORSES !! Every year, i put too many of these in the grade 1s and the form is not equal. Even when juicy RPRs are being recorded this side of the Irish Sea, they are not likely to hold. Have a bigger spread of Irish horses and less British

[Redbridge]

I’m with you on Paul Townend, I got the ick watching him all week, and never felt confident watching even on monkfish. Couldn’t get it out of my head and constantly kept thinking why are you in that position, and couldn’t help thinking Ruby wouldn’t have lost on that.

harsh I know, and I’ve never disliked him as a jockey but it irritated me most of the week

She even bullied him at times

[HoldenTheReins]

Maybe not for this thread but I still don't know when I should be backed E/W or going win only or not. How do you all decide? What are you basing it off?

[robith]

Maybe not for this thread but I still don't know when I should be backed E/W or going win only or not. How do you all decide? What are you basing it off?

You'll develop your own style - me personally I'm always in favour of it, and I think the racing at Cheltenham is (usually) so competitive that personally I'll each way anything 5/1 or above

[Willdunn99]

Maybe not for this thread but I still don't know when I should be backed E/W or going win only or not. How do you all decide? What are you basing it off?

Like Robith says you’ll probably develop your own style. Personally I have certain races I target EW, Arkle - Marsh - RSA - Ballymore. This is just based on them having lower numbers in the race and my previous success. You generally don’t get the extra place concessions on the day with those races as well,
in contrast the supreme traditionally they’ll give you 7 places on the day.

[jrjr]

Maybe not for this thread but I still don't know when I should be backed E/W or going win only or not. How do you all decide? What are you basing it off?

I've found a good exercise is to retrospectively look at the %age of your antepost bets that make/don't make the festival. If you're doing quite a few then an e/w horse that doesn't line up costs you double the amount. The further out I'm placing a bet, the more likely it will be win only - at the end of the day that's where the big returns lie, finding the winners.
Also, I'd be more likely to go e/w if I was convinced of the target, especially if it was a race likely to have a smallish field. It's one thing losing a bet to injury, it's rather more frustrating to see the horse rock up, fit and well, but in a different race!