Lessons learned

[Blackdownhills]

WHAT DIDN’T GO WELL:

I backed far too many singles in the a/r markets. Should’ve been much more selective. Lesson Learned- be much more selective in a/r selections, especially capturing handicappers.

Lots of selections didn’t make it to the Festival, so backing ‘win only’ for singles this far out will cut my outlay by a third. There are plenty of opportunities in the place market when targets are clear and NRNB is applied. Lesson Learned - back win only until nearer the Festival.

WHAT WENT WELL:

Made so much on RaBs. Not just the big bucks multiples (Appreciate It/Bob O @ 200-1 wasn’t the only one I had at those odds), but there were so many individual offers that have been so profitable.

I’ll put ‘Roll-Ups’ & ‘Win ‘Today’ in the same category. Such a boost. I have a system of using Rob Wright & Paul Kealy naps in roll-ups (every Monday & often other days when I want one onside) & it’s been great for me. The Win Today has been terrific. not sure how many winners but certainly DRF & the likes of The Shunter. Worth waiting for these. Biggest one is still in my bag, 250-1 Cloth Cap to win Ladbroke & GN.

The a/r is productive for multiples in that short window where Hills allow. So nearly pulled off a big Trixie with Bob O 16. PTKO 20 & TBO 16. Lesson Learned - exploit the Hills a/r multiples.

Interesting read Eggs and fair play. When roughly do hills release this please?I tried looking for AR multiples but never had any luck with other firms.

[Winging The Last]

Winging The Last I don’t recall Shishkin or Envoi being any bigger than 6/1, and that lasted until about the Monday!

The other but is AI and Bob won a lot more convincingly than Shishkin did for certain

Yeah only very briefly. It was on the same day and day after they won their respective races.

I placed the Shishkin one at 7 the day he won the supreme at 10/1
And Envoi at 7/1 1pm the day after he won the ballymore

[fatherjohn]

They look like there trying to put people off for betting early next year. From what I remember:

Supreme- You could get Ferny & Appreciate it at about 16/1 around now last year. SG and Kilcruit are best price 6s and 12s

Arkle - Could get Shishkin at 10/1 just after supreme did shorten again not long after but AI was 5/1 straight after the race.

CH - Epitante was about 5/1 early after she won. Honeysuckle is best price 3/1

Ballymore - Bob was 33/1 about this time last year and it could be another none Cheltenham runner that goes there but you would think Kilcruit will be one of the top ones aswell. He’s best price 13/2 and AI and Ferny were about 16/1 at this stage last year.

RSA - Monkfish was 10 ish roughly for abit at this point but I think this is much more open next year with no standout horse like Monkfish. Vaillier will go her but will stay abit of a price for the time being as he’s Cromwell trained. Currently BO is fav but he’s like Envoi and will go Marsh instead

QM - Well no one was this short last year for any race but Shishkin in ridiculously short now at 7/4 best price

Marsh - Even BO is shorter than what Envoi was at this stage. I think he was about 7/8s

Ryanair - No idea what it was like last year but no one was as short as 5/1 like Allaho

Stayers - Is about the same as last year tbh. Still think that Thyme Hill is the bet atm 14/1. Will shorten up when he goes to Aintree

GC - Monkfish is very short at best price 5/1. With MI 8s and Envoi 8s. I’m positive there wasn’t 3 under 10/1 at this point last year. Maybe just ABP.

In the end all I can say is the bookies are running scared now

its not surprising is it. based on reactions on this forum and some of the big bets posted online those that went big antepost generally got paid because a lot of races had clear market leaders that won the year before and others like sir g, Bob o and quilixious were generally well found in the market from a long way out.

I think next year is likely to be tougher as we see bookies over correct but suspect it will be a while before we get the same combination of big prices than come good on the day across so many 'fancies'...

[ryanh97]

It's rather a lot of very good info/insight to be out on an open forum, i've always thought. And it always runs the risk of encouraging more to be kept to whatsapp groups and such like. Not sure what you do about it mind, but in the first instance you should at least have to sign up to view anything, in my opinion.

I think the fear has always been that we risk not getting many new members as they don't get to see the good discussion and information so therefore don't bother to sign up.

[jrjr]

Just having a check back through the prices of the handicap winners, as per oddschecker, not the exchange.

Hurdles:
Boodles 80/1 (66/1 in thrid)
Coral 33/1 (33/1 third, 28/1 fourth)
Pertemps 12/1 (fancied horses 2,3 and 4)
Mares novice 5/1 (22/1 second, 12/1 third, 28/1 fourth)
County 33/1 (22/1 second, 28/1 third)
Pipe 8/1 (13/2 second, 33/1 third, 33/1 fourth)

Chases:
Ultima 28/1 (two market leaders in behind)
GA 14/1 (7/1 second, 9/1 third)
Plate 9/4 (5/1 second then 50/1, 22/1)
Kim Muir 3/1 (33/1 second, 11/2 third, 9/1 fourth)

With the exception of the Pertemps, this puts me off antepost punting the handicap hurdles. Easy to fritter bets away on reduced place terms when the bulk of the winners/placers are available at big prices with extended terms on the day.

The chase handicaps tended to be fought out by the better horses. However, several of the shorter prices contracted quite late in the run up. Mount Ida and The Shunter wouldn't have been found months prior to the Festival. Spectre's punt, Happygolucky, was also widely available at 33's, 25's just a few weeks before the off.

Just the ramblings of a slightly drunk but happy punter. Many thanks to all the contributors who shared their knowledge during the past 12 months!

[Eggs]

Interesting read Eggs and fair play. When roughly do hills release this please?I tried looking for AR multiples but never had any luck with other firms.

....looking back at my bets, it looks like I placed a number of multiple on Hills a/r market in April so it might become available again next month.

[Blackdownhills]

....looking back at my bets, it looks like I placed a number of multiple on Hills a/r market in April so it might become available again next month.

Thanks, I'll keep an eye out.

[Eggs]

Thanks, I'll keep an eye out.

....it’ll get flagged up on here as soon as it becomes available.

[Ray]

What didnt work this year was flying into the handicaps..most of the time the horses didnt go to the races so was left with no positions anyway...like everyone im going to play them afer the final decs next year

what did work was each way multiples/yankees/heinz etc..i done a good few of these for small stakes that still returned a nice bit here and there but my main thing ill start doing early this time is football roll ups..like alot of blokes i do a football bet most weekends so maybe at the end of them just add a horse at big odds and if it lands id have a nice position so i can back something else in the race..day 1 i had positions on appreciate it, shishkin, honeysuckle and galvin because of these so going forward ill do a fair few of these

[Ice]

My first antepost any race bet was Ferny hollow on March 15th with hills. I can't see anyone with any race prices up yet.

[Outlaw]

Don't back any British horses unless they are absolute superstars, back Cheveleys for the bumper annually nothing else, and perm the feck out of early fancies by at least April.

On a serious note thou it will be fascinating to see how bookies go pricing up specials/early antepost markets in the spring/summer months. This year nearly every early novice contender made it there, small fields greatly helped e/w perms on such bets and handicaps had horses making the cut that would get balloted out of a decent Kempton card too. Freak year for so many reasons but the bookies must be looking far deeper into how they price for next years festival you would imagine.

[Jrow]

I think a big lesson for all is not to include the mares hurdle in an accumulator

I will exercise caution over Paul Townend rides too, if we remember last year, he rode shockers up to day 4. He didnt ride well again this year and was tactically out performed by RB. How many times did he allow Rachel to close the door on him, I just dont rate the guy

[somer1]

Happy with the way it went over all. But the one thing i wont do next year is touch the handicaps till NRNB comes in. Happy to play one or two in the Boodies before but other than that no.

[ToniC]

Been echoed by so many already, but be selective with handicaps antepost. Had 2 handicap winners & 4 placed that I had backed each way, all bar one of those placed after final decs. Arguably unlucky with entoucas & EDB, as well as farclas bumping in to one, and maybe should have gone each way on more of the antepost selections but ultimately that would have meant either smaller win stakes or backing less horses. At <25/1 say I don’t really see the point weeks out when you’re getting standard place terms etc.

[Willdunn99]

I think a big lesson for all is not to include the mares hurdle in an accumulator

I will exercise caution over Paul Townend rides too, if we remember last year, he rode shockers up to day 4. He didnt ride well again this year and was tactically out performed by RB. How many times did he allow Rachel to close the door on him, I just dont rate the guy

I’m with you on Paul Townend, I got the ick watching him all week, and never felt confident watching even on monkfish. Couldn’t get it out of my head and constantly kept thinking why are you in that position, and couldn’t help thinking Ruby wouldn’t have lost on that.

harsh I know, and I’ve never disliked him as a jockey but it irritated me most of the week