Lessons learned

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Hi All,

I didn’t have the best of festivals as I was slightly down overall, although one more win would have switched me into profit. I attribute this loss to four main reasons and I would really appreciate some thoughts on how you get the well fancied horses on side. Before that, the four main reasons for my overall loss were:

1. I had eight 2nd placed horses on which I had win only bets except one (Jonbon, Epatante, Tiger Roll, Minella Indo. Imperial Alacazar, Janadil, Winged Leader, Queens Brook). Epatante was my e/w bet.
2. I suffered heavily with some injuries on well fancied horses which I had at fancy prices (Buzz, In this World, Ferny Hollow, Brandy Love, She Wears It Well, Balko Des Flos, Gerry Colombe, Let’s Be Clear About It)
3. I suffered heavily with some horses switching to other races (Dysart Dynamo, LHP, Journey With Me, Envoi Allen, Capodanno, Hollow Games, Vanillier)
4. I failed to get well fancied horses on side because I thought the prices being offered by bookies were a joke, although not all of the ones I thought would win did e.g. Honeysuckle, Allaho, Constitution Hill, Sir Gerhard, A Plus Tard, Shishkin, Bob Olinger, GDC, Billaway, Energumene, Delta Work). For example, I can’t recall Honeysuckle, Allaho, Bob Olinger, APT being priced at more than 5-1 even a year ahead.

No doubt numbers #1 and #4 are related. I used B365 and William Hill. Previously I had used WH WAR market but I felt this year the odds had contracted so much that they took the value out of the market, so I relied more heavily on B365 and targeted specific races but I suffered a lot by the removal of Cash Out, which I understand was much more quick versus previous years. In previous years one was able to get Shishkin at 25-1 TWAR, whereas this year, as a similar comparison, I think Jonbon was about 10-1 TWAR (don’t remember exactly). Hence with respect to Jonbon I took 25-1 for the Supreme.

Even with next year’s festival in mind the odds of the well fancied horses are already very prohibitive e.g Facile Vega, Honeysuckle, APT etc. The thought of wading in with significant sums of cash one year in advance of the festival to secure very stingy odds holds little appeal. The chances of them making it to the festival, turning up in the right race and the actually winning play on my mind and tend to steer me away from going in. Obviously some of the targets are pretty obvious like Honeysuckle and APT.

Clearly getting eight 2nd placed horses says I’m doing something right but how do people get these shorties on side despite the prohibitive odds? I welcome your thoughts. Thanks.

[fatherjohn]

Hi All,

I didn’t have the best of festivals as I was slightly down overall, although one more win would have switched me into profit. I attribute this loss to four main reasons and I would really appreciate some thoughts on how you get the well fancied horses on side. Before that, the three main reasons for my overall loss were:

1. I had eight 2nd placed horses on which I had win only bets except one (Jonbon, Epatante, Tiger Roll, Minella Indo. Imperial Alacazar, Janadil, Winged Leader, Queens Brook). Epatante was my e/w bet.
2. I suffered heavily with some injuries on well fancied horses which I had at fancy prices (Buzz, In this World, Ferny Hollow, Brandy Love, She Wears It Well, Balko Des Flos, Gerry Colombe, Let’s Be Clear About It)
3. I suffered heavily with some horses switching to other races (Dysart Dynamo, LHP, Journey With Me, Envoi Allen, Capodanno, Hollow Games, Vanillier)
4. I failed to get well fancied horses on side because I thought the prices being offered by bookies were a joke, although not all of the ones I thought would win did e.g. Honeysuckle, Allaho, Constitution Hill, Sir Gerhard, A Plus Tard, Shishkin, Bob Olinger, GDC, Billaway, Energumene, Delta Work). For example, I can’t recall Honeysuckle, Allaho, Bob Olinger, APT being priced at more than 5-1 even a year ahead.

No doubt numbers #1 and #4 are related. I used B365 and William Hill. Previously I had used WH WAR market but I felt this year the odds had contracted so much that they took the value out of the market, so I relied more heavily on B365 and targeted specific races but I suffered a lot by the removal of Cash Out, which I understand was much more quick versus previous years. In previous years one was able to get Shishkin at 25-1 TWAR, whereas this year, as a similar comparison, I think Jonbon was about 10-1 TWAR (don’t remember exactly). Hence with respect to Jonbon I took 25-1 for the Supreme.

Even with next year’s festival in mind the odds of the well fancied horses are already very prohibitive e.g Facile Vega, Honeysuckle, APT etc. The thought of wading in with significant sums of cash one year in advance of the festival to secure very stingy odds holds little appeal. The chances of them making it to the festival, turning up in the right race and the actually winning play on my mind and tend to steer me away from going in. Obviously some of the targets are pretty obvious like Honeysuckle and APT.

Clearly getting eight 2nd placed horses says I’m doing something right but how do people get these shorties on side despite the prohibitive odds? I welcome your thoughts. Thanks.

recognise a lot of this and have been thinking about the same.

some of your 2nds really should have won but I guess part of this is decuding how much yo back your opinion versus covering good positions with other bets.

I didnt cover tiger with delta roll which now looks stupid.

i also think I formed opinions on dysart and sir g that ignore some of of noises coming from mullins. he never committed dd to either race and thought sir g was a ballymore horses.

gdc was available at decent prices but I refused to change my ideas after first race cause I was already committed to rsa. again his jumping was so good it should surely have been an option to go shorter.

constitution hill came from nowhere for me and coincided with the then fav kilcruit failing to fire (I think they were about same time). that caused price to drop like a stone before I'd got on.

ferny/ai just killed me. only superstars in same race. if you weren't on ferny imo you had made wrong decision as most got on at 8s or so and he was a very strong contender.

not sure that helps but trying to be a bit reflective where I'd got it worng

[In The Know]

Odds two weeks before the festival up until the day are the worst odds of the year try to leave them alone rather than ramping up!

I'll second this... Bookies catching me when the excitements building. I won't probably won't learn from it next year though.

[Istabraq]

Attempting to get the novice hurdles right without the benefit of cashout is impossible, I think I backed 14 who didn't make it/wrong race and even with a 25/1 Vauban voucher I barely turned a profit in the novice hurdle division.
For ante post purposes I need to focus more on the championship races and novice chasers whose targets appear more obvious (GDC aside).

And I need to learn to treat everything Mullins says for comedy value and not for informative reasons, his recent interview stating all his novices were exposed and he had nothing like a Saint Roi for the County was clearly laughable...

[Hurricane fly]

Hi All,

2. I suffered heavily with some injuries on well fancied horses which I had at fancy prices (Buzz, In this World, Ferny Hollow, Brandy Love, She Wears It Well, Balko Des Flos, Gerry Colombe, Let’s Be Clear About It)
3. I suffered heavily with some horses switching to other races (Dysart Dynamo, LHP, Journey With Me, Envoi Allen, Capodanno, Hollow Games, Vanillier)


.

The last 2 years I've had NR % of 18 and 19% of my total stakes, Antepost only that probably rises to around 25%. Injuries and getting it wrong are part of the risk but I always rationalise it with are the increased prices worth it? If I knocked 20% of the prices I've got for the horses running i would still be SP by a country mile so to me it is. Not to say it isn't disheartening at times! I knew there was no way for me to make profit in the Supreme and CH this year because of it.

However for me it's a marathon not a sprint and the good out weighs the bad.

[Supermaster]

Something I was noticing subconsciously I checked this morning:
All 28 festival winners had their last run in the period of 28 Dec to 6 Mar i.e. every one between 10 and 78 days before the first day of the festival (21-78 ignoring the one in March). Of these 17 were in the month of February and only two were in December (both 28th) and only one in March so 8 in January. 7 were in 5/6 Feb and 5 were on 12 Feb. 3 were in 29/30 Jan. So over half (15) had their last run in the two week period between 29 Jan and 12 Feb or 30-45 days before the Tuesday.

Of course a large number of runners have their prep runs in this period but the connections choose when to have those prep runs and they are going to choose what they think is the best time.

There are horses that are exceptions e.g. Screaming Colours in yesterday's Midlands National. A horse I dismissed because it needed a 13lb turn round from last year's race - and failed to notice it had a habit of winning after a break - hence no prep run since last October. I'm fairly sure connections had worked that out and it worked well for them - more happy Irish people.

[Quevega]

Something I was noticing subconsciously I checked this morning:
All 28 festival winners had their last run in the period of 28 Dec to 6 Mar i.e. every one between 10 and 78 days before the first day of the festival (21-78 ignoring the one in March). Of these 17 were in the month of February and only two were in December (both 28th) and only one in March so 8 in January. 7 were in 5/6 Feb and 5 were on 12 Feb. 3 were in 29/30 Jan. So over half (15) had their last run in the two week period between 29 Jan and 12 Feb or 30-45 days before the Tuesday.

Of course a large number of runners have their prep runs in this period but the connections choose when to have those prep runs and they are going to choose what they think is the best time.

There are horses that are exceptions e.g. Screaming Colours in yesterday's Midlands National. A horse I dismissed because it needed a 13lb turn round from last year's race - and failed to notice it had a habit of winning after a break - hence no prep run since last October. I'm fairly sure connections had worked that out and it worked well for them - more happy Irish people.

The 2 week period you mention is obvious really.
I think this would be similar most years given we have trials day at Cheltenham, then Dublin Festival - followed by RedMills weekend and Newbury & Warwick the week after.
And obviously the spacing for most trainers is perfect.

[Quevega]

I think the biggest lesson most could learn, going on my experience of the forum this year, as I'm pretty much on it most days.

Is the race target blind spots some seemed to have.
The amount of bollocks talked was insane.

As were the assumptions based on races horses ran in VS running styles. And the horse itself. Ultimately, many things will decide the eventual race a horse will run in, and the 'prep' races is a small cog in this. But the horse and how it performs in it's races, the likely opponents, the likely ground are bigger cogs IMO.

Especially for the 3 novice hurdles and 3 novice chases.

I was fortunate not to get stung with this myself, as the main ones affected I'd missed the early prices or decided they were too skinny for ante-post for me personally. Partly due to target uncertainty, but only partly.

I actually think this years absentees due to injury was relatively light, it was more the race they ended up in that affected most antepost portfolios.

And lets face it.
Thank fuck GDC fell, as some would have suffered even more had Bob not won.


I also think Willie pretty much helped antepost punters this season more than any other trainer. (fairly obvious with 10 winners really )

He nominated the right races for his 2 star bumper horses early enough.
Stattler for the NH chase before the season started.
The mentions for Facile Vega started before he was even named.
The Gaelic Warrior and State Man cases looked obvious early enough.
He ran Vauban early enough in the season. which he doesn't always do with his best juveniles.
When the Nice Guy won his maiden, he immediately mentioned the bartlett as the next race.
With regards GDC, not as early or obvious but they were pretty much telling people the Turners for a few weeks. And had never committed to further at any point really, apart from in a roundabout fashion.
He even gave people the heads up on Elimay (not having as tough an opponent) and she obliged - just.
He didn't even switch Concertista, although he should have, as most of his runners in the mares had weaknesses in a weak renewal.
And the lack of declarations for Appreciate It only meant one thing IMO.

The only bum steer I can think of was the comments around Chacun, but we'll never know if he was right or not on that day, but I wrote off those comments as him being sentimental about his older horses and probably also that the comments were around the time Energumene was lame.

So lessons to be learnt.

1. Don't get married to a race target and react when there's a doubt - Always better to do something than nothing.

2. Trust in Willie (to a point) - at least more so than other trainers.

[somer1]

And lets face it.
Thank fuck GDC fell, as some would have suffered even more had Bob not won.
Well said Q. I had thought this but not had the balls to post it.

[Geegees]

I think the biggest lesson most could learn, going on my experience of the forum this year, as I'm pretty much on it most days.

Is the race target blind spots some seemed to have.
The amount of bollocks talked was insane.

As were the assumptions based on races horses ran in VS running styles. And the horse itself. Ultimately, many things will decide the eventual race a horse will run in, and the 'prep' races is a small cog in this. But the horse and how it performs in it's races, the likely opponents, the likely ground are bigger cogs IMO.

Especially for the 3 novice hurdles and 3 novice chases.

I was fortunate not to get stung with this myself, as the main ones affected I'd missed the early prices or decided they were too skinny for ante-post for me personally. Partly due to target uncertainty, but only partly.

I actually think this years absentees due to injury was relatively light, it was more the race they ended up in that affected most antepost portfolios.

And lets face it.
Thank fuck GDC fell, as some would have suffered even more had Bob not won.


I also think Willie pretty much helped antepost punters this season more than any other trainer. (fairly obvious with 10 winners really )

He nominated the right races for his 2 star bumper horses early enough.
Stattler for the NH chase before the season started.
The mentions for Facile Vega started before he was even named.
The Gaelic Warrior and State Man cases looked obvious early enough.
He ran Vauban early enough in the season. which he doesn't always do with his best juveniles.
When the Nice Guy won his maiden, he immediately mentioned the bartlett as the next race.
With regards GDC, not as early or obvious but they were pretty much telling people the Turners for a few weeks. And had never committed to further at any point really, apart from in a roundabout fashion.
He even gave people the heads up on Elimay (not having as tough an opponent) and she obliged - just.
He didn't even switch Concertista, although he should have, as most of his runners in the mares had weaknesses in a weak renewal.
And the lack of declarations for Appreciate It only meant one thing IMO.

The only bum steer I can think of was the comments around Chacun, but we'll never know if he was right or not on that day, but I wrote off those comments as him being sentimental about his older horses and probably also that the comments were around the time Energumene was lame.

So lessons to be learnt.

1. Don't get married to a race target and react when there's a doubt - Always better to do something than nothing.

2. Trust in Willie (to a point) - at least more so than other trainers.

I think this is a cracking post … hard to take off the rose tinted glasses but I think if people did take a step back from what they would do if they was in WPM shoes then he gave plenty of hints/ suggestions regarding targets

[jono]

Quevega Good examples from Willie there on targets through the season. I think he stepped his game up actually on that front this season. Hope it continues. There will always be some horses that are not set in stone, there’s no way around it and he wouldn’t be the trainer he is if he was so rigid.

The decisions that went against a lot of us on here, Dysart Dynamo and Galopin Des Champs were also now in hindsight fully justified.

And like a few mentioned at the time, given Willie had never once namechecked the 3m Festival Chase for GdC, bar anyone (myself included) being on him antepost, it wasn’t even really a debate looking back.

[Irish Rugby]

Being retired now, I have a lot of time to not just watch races but to read and listen to everything. I remember Ruby saying to Lydia on one of those weekly podcasts, that Willie doesn't say much, but when he does, for us to listen. Have to agree with all of this.

He nominated the right races for his 2 star bumper horses early enough.
Stattler for the NH chase before the season started.
The mentions for Facile Vega started before he was even named.
The Gaelic Warrior and State Man cases looked obvious early enough.
He ran Vauban early enough in the season. which he doesn't always do with his best juveniles.
When the Nice Guy won his maiden, he immediately mentioned the bartlett as the next race.
With regards GDC, not as early or obvious but they were pretty much telling people the Turners for a few weeks. And had never committed to further at any point really, apart from in a roundabout fashion.
He even gave people the heads up on Elimay (not having as tough an opponent) and she obliged - just.
He didn't even switch Concertista, although he should have, as most of his runners in the mares had weaknesses in a weak renewal.
And the lack of declarations for Appreciate It only meant one thing IMO.

Thanks, Quevaga. Couldn't express it better myself.

I see very little change next year. Start with Willie, then Gordon, then Henry. 16 winners out of 28 races this year. As it was last year. The same %.

Just a brief footnote. I reckon they still believe Chacun to be exceptional. He's just not done it outside of Ireland and age is now creeping up on him.

[Lobos]

For me I'm going to ignore all Novice races and handicap races for next season until the week itself. Just concentrating on around 6/7 horses and chip away at singles and multiples for those alone. That'll leave me with a more healthy pot for the week.

[Istabraq]

For me I'm going to ignore all Novice races and handicap races for next season until the week itself

Or at least until you can get NRNB.
Sensible strategy that Lobos.
I can’t believe there would be many who got the novice hurdles as wrong as me, happy to miss the prices next year and not give up around 150 points or 25% of ante post outlay before the roar…

[Supermaster]

The 2 week period you mention is obvious really.
I think this would be similar most years given we have trials day at Cheltenham, then Dublin Festival - followed by RedMills weekend and Newbury & Warwick the week after.
And obviously the spacing for most trainers is perfect.

But only about a third of runners have their previous runs in that period