Lessons learned

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Yeah, I'm happy to clarify I meant 'supposed good things' - given they didn't all win.

For me there wasn't one in the Ultima this year (Galahad Quest wasn't for me, but I piled in on the respected advice and have no issue with the outcome). The Coral and Grand Annual were both write offs due to the going. The Pertemps looked wide open between Gordy's (which turned out to be wrong in itself). The Plate didn't have a standout for me anywhere, whereas the Kim Muir would have done in Frontal Assault if Gordy's were running well.

Gaelic Warrior was entered at Cheltenham on Trials Day. I noted his mark in the Irish horses in British handicaps thread in the members section. I didn't have a bet at that point, but knew he was on a Fred Winter mark if they wanted to go there.

Cheers buddy. I must have missed that post. I agree with all your other points.

[Kevloaf]

Odds two weeks before the festival up until the day are the worst odds of the year try to leave them alone rather than ramping up!

I could do with this post popping up 50 weeks from now.

I will try and see how much and what returns as a percentage I had from "when" I placed the bets.

Pre Christmas
Pre DRF
Post NRNB
2 weeks before
Day of race markets


I think that'd be very interesting.

[Mighty]

The use of bet365 going forward i need to rethink after the amount of times they greyed out selections ahead of schedule, shame only betfair and pp have cash out antepost

I think this is the important debate to be had. My first year doing antepost seriously and I suffered badly from this and didn’t anticipate it happening, though as I had an excellent year overall it didn’t have the impact I was fearing. I know Spectre alluded to doing a podcast on betting strategies, and I’d be fascinated in that ahead of Punchestown/the summer (when we’ve all recovered!)

Otherwise, I backed too many horses (the wrong ones?) TWAR, and went too heavily into the horses that ‘switched’ races (Sir G, DD, GDC etc).

The ‘win today and any race’ bets are a good one to watch out more for - I missed a few so need to pay more attention to Eggs this year.

[Stormez]

As said by most, I’ll be leaving the handicaps alone until the week of racing next season. The volatility of the markets on the day plus extra places make this a no brainer.

There are however some races I think it’s still worth playing early with the right strategy. Following Gordon in the Pertemps & Kim Muir for example is still something worth doing early I think.

[Altior]

Ignore everyone in the media. This year was ridiculous with all the podcasts, preview shows and just people posting on Twitter. Has anyone with a following actually tipped a good Cheltenham? I've seen several sorry posts already on twitter. These guys know next to nothing and you guys on here are streets ahead. In terms of value, I guess you have to get your money down as soon as you can as these idiots will cause prices on everything to tumble and creating ridiculously false markets. On the flip side that opens the argument for holding off on some races as once the true money arrives you might get bigger prices.

[Bunkoffearly]

Agreed too many handicap bets in general - seaking value early - especially when championship races are being cut at same time

[Silverbirch]

Don't be scared to back a horse if it loses before fez. Eg Elimay, Billaway, TMSG etc

Don't write Hendo off. (Guilty)

Predominantly only back Willie, Gord, HdB, hendo horses.

Ignore all Nicholls horses up to and including the race itself

The exchanges are rarely wrong.

Time to get over my fear of backing a green and white jersey with a red hat runner (worked a treat eh? )

Dream big! Because why not? It's what it's all about!

Enjoy it before the crazies take it from us.

[Leman14]

I could do with this post popping up 50 weeks from now.

I will try and see how much and what returns as a percentage I had from "when" I placed the bets.

Pre Christmas
Pre DRF
Post NRNB
2 weeks before
Day of race markets


I think that'd be very interesting.

I’ve broken mine down by month.
September bets, by far the most profitable, January by far the worst.
similar trend to last year.

maybe doing a “Lobos lockdown” is the way forward…


I say this every year, but:

TRUST THE ANTEPOST BETS!!

Every year, I lose money with on-the-day betting, trying to cover “dangers”.
It just eats into profit!

[archie]

After last year's efforts I resolved to basically stick to ante post free bets or NRNB. This worked great with a treble from last October leading the way and no actual cash bets lost for non-runners.

I ignored:
- the handicaps until late on, mainly not bothering to read the handicap threads.
- the preview nights. Too much information from an industry gravy train.
- most betting diaries on here. No offence intended but I don't do a book and I don't do cash out so, again, it comes under the heading of too much information. I find it interesting to read the rationale behind bets but not the bets themselves if that makes sense. There's a great danger of getting sucked in to fear of missing out and the older I get, the happier I am to let a horse run without my money slowing it down if I don't like the price.

[somer1]

Thinks over the 4 days i only placed about 4 bets. Didnt see the point of throwing money at the horses. That worked well. Didnt get there this year but will be there in 2023. So wont be able to not have a bet on the day.

[BalthazarKing]

For me:
Need to avoid watching preview nights and thinking anything The Coddfather says is gospel...American Mike classic example- waisted a lot of my profit on Facile Vega covering AM - couldnt get his quote of 'he'll win by the straight' out my head. Hindsight i know easy to say after the fact. But previews on the whole clouded a lot of my judgement. Also if ground didnt go from GTS to Heavy within a few hours AM may well have ran better. Saying that FV could have too!

Antepost betting in the main may well be gone to certain extent. Bookies are quick to react taking away cash out and feel like we no longer have that edge. Think i may experiment starting from NRNB markets.

Need to avoid handicaps and play them for fun really can be an absolute minefield!

Worst festival profit wise for 4 years for me 395 points up feels like a loss with the close calls of TMSG, Gaelic Warrior, Tiger Roll, Shishkin, GDC and Allaphillipe.

Break now to clear head before Aintree

[Garrison Savannah]

Don’t plan to have the same return from all races. Up stakes on the grade one races where form lines are much more obvious (back your judgement) and/or reduce stakes on the handicaps. Particularly when conditionals are involved.

[jrjr]

Some festival musings:

1, Be more selective. Wasted a lot of points on horses that went to different races, got injured or simply proved not good enough (often well in advance of the festival itself). The new 'greying out' policy will make this even more important.

2, Following on from the above, take advantage of horses that get pushed out after slightly disappointing early season runs. This has a double benefit as often horses being trained specifically for the Festival (which is what we want) will start slowly. TMSG hit 16's this year, Elimay went out to 8 or 9, Vauban hit 25's (poss 33's) and I remember Allaho drifting to 16's the year before. This is an indirect benefit of the Bet 365 cash-out scheme.

3, Bet more win only than ew. Better to do two horses win only than one horse ew. It's the winners that boost the overall points balance.

4, Leave the handicaps until NRNB at the very earliest. Even then, only take horses I'm very keen on and that I think will shorten. The 'on the day' drifts and extra places make 10.00-11.00 am on the day of the race the 'sweet spot' for placing bets. This also allows for ground conditions to be properly assessed. Commander of Fleet in this year's Coral being a good example.

5, Use the exchange to place an in-running lay order on horses with big returns. You just never know what might happen. GDC a good example, was matched for about 40K at 1.01.

6, Although it didn't work out in the results this year, remember the Elliot trends (hopefully Saxon continues his race planning threads). These represent some of the best ante-post value.

7, Never, ever, back a Nicholls horse ante-post.

[DenmanSacre]

1. Limit the amount spent on multiples. I'm going to have a separate betting bank for these compared to my single bets.
2. Any ante post multiples done will only be on horses in graded races with 'firm' targets - typically ignoring Mullins novice hurdlers.
3. Use the Betfair Exchange more. First year doing it and it is excellent value on the day of betting.
4. Unless there is something like State Man NRNB that looks excellent value, I'll typically ignore the handicaps until final decs.
5. As I said after the Wednesday on the General thread, Venetia Williams horses were running brilliantly. Don't be afraid to change your opinion on horses if the trainers other horses were running well. Her fine form continued into Thursday and Friday.
6. Some races I'll completely leave until the day - the Albert Bartlett in particular. This year Mullins was in brilliant form and got the 1-2. Cromwell in form last year after Flooring Porters victory and the vibes were that Vanillier was working well with him.
7. If Mullins wins the County, back his in the Albert Bartlett. Happened this year, 2020 and 2017. 2015 he had the County winner and a 33/1 2nd in the Albert Bartlett.
8. Past Cheltenham form is priceless. If they haven't ran at Cheltenham, there are some courses where form seems to translate across - Naas, Warwick, Navan in particular for me.
9. I need to look at the last 3 years records but I think going win only would have been much more profitable than each way.

[darlojim]

Like others have said - dont be too hasty in the week or 2 running up to the fez and also stay away from horses who are fragile. The like of Jungle Boogies, Ferny and Appreciate It all missed time prior to this season and none of those ended up running at all or in their 'predicted' races in AI's respect.