Has anyone had a Cheltenham 2022 punt yet

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

The answer is simple, right? If you don’t think the prices represent value then don’t place a bet. It is not a foregone conclusion that prices will contract. Take last year, Minella Indo was about 10-1 all season but went out to 20-1 after the DRF. I have placed four bets so far at 25-1 but personally I’m not going to be sucked into backing horses at lower prices at which I am uncomfortable. I tend only bet on double figure prices this far out with the odd exception of course.

It is up to us to find the value and there is plenty of road ahead of us. If people keep the powder dry on the short prices horses bookies will at some point have to balance their book and the prices will increase. If enough people back at short prices then they won’t need to.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Just a note for those thinking of backing Jonbon before his bumper. 20/1 with most or lower but can get boosted 28/1 with Lads.

Henderson, on his Unibet blog, states Jonbon has quite a pronounced knee action hence thinks he might be one for a softer surface. He says he nearly withdrew him from today race and would have done had the rain not come. Ground dependency of course is not ideal.

[charlie]

Re ante post bets, I think its really important to separate the freaks that just win (Monkfish) vs those that are likely to be poor on debut (Allaho) with all roads leading to Marsh. Bookies will over react to poor performances early, which makes taking some prices less appealing now, and it's simply value missed.. Allaho is a good example, doesn't tend to win on debut, was battered in the John Durkan - if the same thing happens his price will be pushed out big time. 5/1 could easily become 8/1. Then you have horses like Monkfish who might just beat everything, look awesome and 5/1 is as good as its ever going to get.

I do think it's important to get horses with proven Cheltenham form that we know will be campaigned sparingly into the book early. Al Boum Photo was the perfect example of a bet that made sense early. We knew he'd be campaigned sparingly and be seen once before Cheltenham, 7/1 made sense early and he went off 9/4. Classic 'what are you waiting for' punting. Honeysuckle is the same. She's 1111111111111, is 2/2 at Cheltenham, will race only twice pre Cheltenham if staying hurdling and 3/1 might be as big as it gets. I would avoid the latter as singles mind because to me that's plenty short, but its worth considering. I love horses that just go to Cheltenham and win, stay sound and are campaigned sparingly. It takes so much risk out of punting.

[Istabraq]

What price do you think SG should be, and what price would you take about him now?

My answer to the above is 12/1. I think that would about right and I'd take a point on that.

10/1-12/1 is probably about right charlie, I’d be happy getting him onside at 14/1 and tempted down to 10/1, single figures I’ll pass...

[Istabraq]

Re ante post bets, I think its really important to separate the freaks that just win (Monkfish) vs those that are likely to be poor on debut (Allaho) with all roads leading to Marsh. Bookies will over react to poor performances early, which makes taking some prices less appealing now, and it's simply value missed.. Allaho is a good example, doesn't tend to win on debut, was battered in the John Durkan - if the same thing happens his price will be pushed out big time. 5/1 could easily become 8/1. Then you have horses like Monkfish who might just beat everything, look awesome and 5/1 is as good as its ever going to get.

I do think it's important to get horses with proven Cheltenham form that we know will be campaigned sparingly into the book early. Al Boum Photo was the perfect example of a bet that made sense early. We knew he'd be campaigned sparingly and be seen once before Cheltenham, 7/1 made sense early and he went off 9/4. Classic 'what are you waiting for' punting. Honeysuckle is the same. She's 1111111111111, is 2/2 at Cheltenham, will race only twice pre Cheltenham if staying hurdling and 3/1 might be as big as it gets. I would avoid the latter as singles mind because to me that's plenty short, but its worth considering. I love horses that just go to Cheltenham and win, stay sound and are campaigned sparingly. It takes so much risk out of punting.

Some very good points in there, compare the Honeysuckle at 3/1 with the Sir Gerhard 5/1 and I think the value point is proved with a clear and obvious target and pretty much all known opponents being inferior.
The novice hurdle division is fraught with danger not just from a target perspective but the prospect of French recruits and possibly a high quality PTP horse or two who has been forced to sit in their box for months coming to the fore...

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Some very good points in there, compare the Honeysuckle at 3/1 with the Sir Gerhard 5/1 and I think the value point is proved with a clear and obvious target and pretty much all known opponents being inferior.
The novice hurdle division is fraught with danger not just from a target perspective but the prospect of French recruits and possibly a high quality PTP horse or two who has been forced to sit in their box for months coming to the fore...

Has it been confirmed that Honeysuckle is staying hurdling?

[Faugheen_Machine]

The answer is simple, right? If you don’t think the prices represent value then don’t place a bet.

I think that's it in a nutshell.

Appreciate It and Bob Olinger are very close to being too short for me but then I can easily see them going off the price of Shishkin and EA this season. I'm going to put them in some early bets and then leave them.

One thing thatsa really bad idea is when we put a horse in a multiple after saying it's poor value on its own (something I've been guilty of on occasion). Multiplying up poor value by poor value is the road to the poor house imo.

[Istabraq]

Has it been confirmed that Honeysuckle is staying hurdling?

As far as I know nothing has been said but I’d be surprised if she went chasing, not just because of the extreme stamina demands but also the chasing talent in her generation, would they pass up the chance to win multiple champion hurdles ?

[BeigeBuffetSelection]

The main difference last year with shishkin and envoi was they had fairly certain targets. It was always mooted that shishkin would go chasing and the Arkle was obvious and envoi although there was a bit of early debate between marsh and the rsa I always felt the marsh was the most likely and this was confirmed by GE early in the season. Plus both of their prices held for a good month or maybe two after Cheltenham.

This time we have appreciate it and bob olinger who are already both shorter than last years duo and have a far from clear target at this stage. Yes the most likely is Arkle and marsh but I would argue that these could quite easily be wrong for both.

I’m not seeing how Shishkin & Envoi Allen’s targets were any clearer at this stage last year, than Appreciate It and Bob Olinger’s are now?

[callhimgamblor]

Simple yes/no please.

If Jonbon wins the bumper this afternoon he is no longer a novice for next season's Cheltenham and would therefore be ineligible for the supreme, Ballymore or Albert Bartlett.

Correct?

[Geegees]

Simple yes/no please.

If Jonbon wins the bumper this afternoon he is no longer a novice for next season's Cheltenham and would therefore be ineligible for the supreme, Ballymore or Albert Bartlett.

Correct?

Incorrect - because today’s race is a bumper then winning it wouldn’t ruin his novice status as hurdler next year

[The Fellow]

Simple yes/no please.

If Jonbon wins the bumper this afternoon he is no longer a novice for next season's Cheltenham and would therefore be ineligible for the supreme, Ballymore or Albert Bartlett.

Correct?

he is still a novice next season , he would need to win a novice hurdle before the end of the jump season to be excluded

[callhimgamblor]

Is the 5:45 today not a novice hurdle?

[MTR]

Is the 5:45 today not a novice hurdle?

No mate a NH flat race.

5:45
Newbury

2m?f (2m69y) BetVictor Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4-6yo) 1/5 1-3

[Kautostar]

As far as I know nothing has been said but I’d be surprised if she went chasing, not just because of the extreme stamina demands but also the chasing talent in her generation, would they pass up the chance to win multiple champion hurdles ?

I’m not so sure so I’m holding off backing her yet until they confirm. Her price is too short to be risking a chunky non runner so early. The fact is the owner is clearly not afraid of a challenge and chasing has been mentioned. She schools regularly over a fence every Sunday according to an interview with hdb. It’s now or never if she’s going to do it. I’d rather take 2/1 knowing she’s staying over hurdles than the 3/1 now. If she does go chasing that also changes every novice chase market and the champion hurdle dramatically.