Has anyone had a Cheltenham 2022 punt yet

[Eggs]

How far before the festival did you place these, Eggs? Something I've been interested in before but always seem to miss the boat.

...just looking through the black book, here’s a flavour:

17.04.20 Shishkin A/CC 35-1 (Lad)
31.10.20 Envoi GC 25-1 (Sky)
23.11.20 Shishkin A/CC Envoi GC 250-1 (Lad)
24.11.20 Shishkin CC 14-1 (Sky)
24.11.20 Envoi GC 18-1 (Lad)
28.11.20 Monkfish RSA/GC 50-1 & Monkfish GC 33-1 (Hills)
17.01.21 AI/Shishkin 50-1 a/r (Sky)
21.01.21 Shishkin A/CC Golden Pal King Stand 120-1 (Sky)
22.01.21 Sir G Bumper & a/r 33-1 (Sky)
08.02.21 Shishkin A/CC Monkfish RSA/GC 100-1 (Hills)

Mar ‘21: The Sir G, Quilixios & Bob O bets will have been placed just ahead of this years races from the ‘win today’ market.

I’m just wondering if liabilities from these types of offer are impacting the lousy ante-post market.

[Kautostar]

I just think it’s very very risky to be taking 2022 bets for cheltenham before horses have even ran in 2021. I get you have potential horse that could be superstars. I would rather concentrate on 2021 then when the dust has settled start looking at 2022, just my opinion and how I be, not everyone is the same.

Then what happens if horses run at Aintree and/or Punchestown and pick up lengthy injuries

Hard enough picking horses antepost, nevermind with more info and risk this season.

Sir Gerhards price and Classic Getaway are appalling imo. One has not been over a hurdle in it’s likely field and the other hasn’t ran in a national hunt competitive race. I know the novices going chasing are awful too but the 2 above are the worst for me.

I have to disagree I think backing horses before the 2021 festival and taking a view for the 2022 festival is the right play. The odds on shishkin before winning the 2021 Arkle was around 14/1 for a while before getting backed in to around 6/1 for the 2022 champion chase. Even if shishkin fell or lost to energumene who was the main danger until less than a week before the festival, shishkin would still likely be targeted at the following years champion chase and in which case wouldn’t go off any bigger than 6/1. All that happened in between was he won the Arkle as everyone thought he would and now you get 6/4! The value far outweighs the risk.

The second point about running at punchestown/aintree and getting injured is part and parcel of ante post. What if he runs at aintree and wins, the horse will be shorter still and can get injured two days before Cheltenham 2022? You’ve still done your money unless you wait for nrnb. I can understand people not backing anything during the summer after the festivals as the prices won’t change much then and you might as well wait for updates/stable tours at that point.

Thats just my opinion on it but everyone has a different approach.

[Craigy14]

I have to disagree I think backing horses before the 2021 festival and taking a view for the 2022 festival is the right play. The odds on shishkin before winning the 2021 Arkle was around 14/1 for a while before getting backed in to around 6/1 for the 2022 champion chase. Even if shishkin fell or lost to energumene who was the main danger until less than a week before the festival, shishkin would still likely be targeted at the following years champion chase and in which case wouldn’t go off any bigger than 6/1. All that happened in between was he won the Arkle as everyone thought he would and now you get 6/4! The value far outweighs the risk.

The second point about running at punchestown/aintree and getting injured is part and parcel of ante post. What if he runs at aintree and wins, the horse will be shorter still and can get injured two days before Cheltenham 2022? You’ve still done your money unless you wait for nrnb. I can understand people not backing anything during the summer after the festivals as the prices won’t change much then and you might as well wait for updates/stable tours at that point.

Thats just my opinion on it but everyone has a different approach.

I did say that the potential “superstars” aside, Shishkin, Envoi and Monkfish I suppose would be examples. Can understand backing horses like that before the festival for the following year as the likelihood was they would only shorten “if” or “when” they won.

But at the time I don’t think backing horses like Sir Gerhard to win the bumper and then a race at 2022 would be deemed good bets. Now of course with hindsight it looks a good bet.

Of course agree about the injuries part but doing your money before the season has finished is riskier than waiting until it has finished. Running a horse more than not running at all will increase chances of injury. Walking about a field eating grass will surely bare no injuries for the season ahead. Should have expanded what I meant by that.

The problem is the bookies are taking the piss out of antepost betting. If everyone waits till the season starts be lucky to get a double digit horse at this rate

As you say everyone approaches it differently. The bookies, the short season last year, lockdown, the high calibre of novices seem to be impacting a lot of people’s bets imo for next year.

[Eggs]

I did say that the potential “superstars” aside, Shishkin, Envoi and Monkfish I suppose would be examples. Can understand backing horses like that before the festival for the following year as the likelihood was they would only shorten “if” or “when” they won.

But at the time I don’t think backing horses like Sir Gerhard to win the bumper and then a race at 2022 would be deemed good bets. Now of course with hindsight it looks a good bet.

Of course agree about the injuries part but doing your money before the season has finished is riskier than waiting until it has finished. Running a horse more than not running at all will increase chances of injury. Walking about a field eating grass will surely bare no injuries for the season ahead. Should have expanded what I meant by that.

The problem is the bookies are taking the piss out of antepost betting. If everyone waits till the season starts be lucky to get a double digit horse at this rate

As you say everyone approaches it differently. The bookies, the short season last year, lockdown, the high calibre of novices seem to be impacting a lot of people’s bets imo for next year.

...if you fancied Sir G to win the CB, then 33-1 for it to win a/r next year was surely a good bet. It was bound to be short for a number of races if it won.

It’s not hindsight, I thought it was a decent offer anyway. I suppose we all look at these things differently.

[Craigy14]

...if you fancied Sir G to win the CB, then 33-1 for it to win a/r next year was surely a good bet. It was bound to be short for a number of races if it won.

It’s not hindsight, I thought it was a decent offer anyway. I suppose we all look at these things differently.

It’s more the bookies than anything Eggs.

After the bumper last year Ferny Hollow, Appreciate It were around 8/1 I think for the potential novice races this year.

Fast forward 12 months and Sir Gerhard is 5/1. He’s not even jumped an obstacle.

I suppose my point is more towards the bookies taking the complete piss with the markets than anything.

Having to back earlier and earlier is riskier and if you don’t then you miss any value there is on horses you like.

[FinalFurlong91]

It’s more the bookies than anything Eggs.

After the bumper last year Ferny Hollow, Appreciate It were around 8/1 I think for the potential novice races this year.

Fast forward 12 months and Sir Gerhard is 5/1. He’s not even jumped an obstacle.

I suppose my point is more towards the bookies taking the complete piss with the markets than anything.

Having to back earlier and earlier is riskier and if you don’t then you miss any value there is on horses you like.

Both ferny and appreciate it were double figures

I backed appreciate it at a boosted 15s from 14s for the ballymore the Monday after the festival last year

[FinalFurlong91]

...if you fancied Sir G to win the CB, then 33-1 for it to win a/r next year was surely a good bet. It was bound to be short for a number of races if it won.

It’s not hindsight, I thought it was a decent offer anyway. I suppose we all look at these things differently.

Problem for me with that type of bet is that for everyone one that makes it to the following year loads dont and the value begins to go unless you are very lucky and nail a huge priced one

[charlie]

It’s more the bookies than anything Eggs.

After the bumper last year Ferny Hollow, Appreciate It were around 8/1 I think for the potential novice races this year.

Fast forward 12 months and Sir Gerhard is 5/1. He’s not even jumped an obstacle.

I suppose my point is more towards the bookies taking the complete piss with the markets than anything.

Having to back earlier and earlier is riskier and if you don’t then you miss any value there is on horses you like.

It's a tough one. Some will tell you backing a Supreme horse at 5/1 when he's not even jumped an obstacle 12 months out utter madness.

Normally I'd agree, and I still do agree (sort of), its just hard to shake off the chokehold Mullins and CPS have on this game.

CPS have won the last three bumpers. EA followed up in the Ballymore. Ferny beat BO who looks like a weapon before getting injured, and Sir Gerhard looks like a tool.

SG shows lots of speed, is 4/4, has won at Cheltenham, cost 400k, and is trained by someone who has won 4 out of the last 9 runnings of the race.

I wont take 5/1 on its own, but its cherry ripe for a few roll ups IMO. Find a 6/4 fav you are really sweet on in a weak race, the double will pay 14/1. It's tough as punters, the bookies give feck all away, so maybe we have to find the right shorties to double horses like SG and win enough of them to eek out some value when none is on offer.

[Eggs]

Problem for me with that type of bet is that for everyone one that makes it to the following year loads dont and the value begins to go unless you are very lucky and nail a huge priced one

....I suppose it’s a matter of the earlier you play the greater the reward but the greater the risk. Saying that bets placed later are still subject to risk.

There’s no right or wrong to this.

[Istabraq]

It's a tough one. Some will tell you backing a Supreme horse at 5/1 when he's not even jumped an obstacle 12 months out utter madness.

I make 5/1 madness.
Backing Bumper horses progressing to the Supreme has been a surefire route to the poor house over the years, Appreciate It is the exception not the rule.
Even if nothing appears from France, and the horse maintains full health, and shows a sufficient high level of form, you still need to get the target right.
5/1 just stinks for me...

[Craigy14]

....I suppose it’s a matter of the earlier you play the greater the reward but the greater the risk. Saying that bets placed later are still subject to risk.

There’s no right or wrong to this.

Aye 100% that’s what I would say.

Its almost becoming like if you think there’s a horse who will likely take high rank in the following years division then get on prior to that years running.

Which is sort of crazy but how the markets are going with the bookies going so short.

[Craigy14]

It's a tough one. Some will tell you backing a Supreme horse at 5/1 when he's not even jumped an obstacle 12 months out utter madness.

Normally I'd agree, and I still do agree (sort of), its just hard to shake off the chokehold Mullins and CPS have on this game.

CPS have won the last three bumpers. EA followed up in the Ballymore. Ferny beat BO who looks like a weapon before getting injured, and Sir Gerhard looks like a tool.

SG shows lots of speed, is 4/4, has won at Cheltenham, cost 400k, and is trained by someone who has won 4 out of the last 9 runnings of the race.

I wont take 5/1 on its own, but its cherry ripe for a few roll ups IMO. Find a 6/4 fav you are really sweet on in a weak race, the double will pay 14/1. It's tough as punters, the bookies give feck all away, so maybe we have to find the right shorties to double horses like SG and win enough of them to eek out some value when none is on offer.

Yeah I’ll be doing the roll ups again. Worked the last couple of years, but I think the key is being select with them.

Shishkins Envoi Monkfishes of this world, Sir G I suppose could fall into that as he’s too short but will likely take high rank.

[fatherjohn]

I make 5/1 madness.
Backing Bumper horses progressing to the Supreme has been a surefire route to the poor house over the years, Appreciate It is the exception not the rule.
Even if nothing appears from France, and the horse maintains full health, and shows a sufficient high level of form, you still need to get the target right.
5/1 just stinks for me...

for me its not just about value its about risking an amount i would be happy to win to make it a worthwhile bet a year ahead... at double figures you can double up or even single prices to get a pretty decent return and something to look forward to a year out.

at 5s I'd have to bet a much larger stake than normal as I'm a small stakes punter so unless I'm pulling trebles together I'm not going to feel like risk is worth the reward. Definitely feels like the bookies have over corrected so I am going to adjust my approach otherwise I'll be knee deep before October..... which I know works for some people but not for me

[Kautostar]

With the likes of sir gerhard there’s not much point backing him now at 5/1 I’d wait until after the summer and re-evaluate the situation in September/October.

I do feel it’s worth taking a punt early on horses that are likely to shorten before the current Cheltenham to get the value as the rewards when you get them right pay for many a non runner.
If the fear of a non runner prevents you from betting this early then maybe ante post isn’t the way to go for you and you should concentrate more on when nrnb starts.

I find ante post strategy very interesting and love to see the different ideas and techniques that people use.

[FinalFurlong91]

for me its not just about value its about risking an amount i would be happy to win to make it a worthwhile bet a year ahead... at double figures you can double up or even single prices to get a pretty decent return and something to look forward to a year out.

at 5s I'd have to bet a much larger stake than normal as I'm a small stakes punter so unless I'm pulling trebles together I'm not going to feel like risk is worth the reward. Definitely feels like the bookies have over corrected so I am going to adjust my approach otherwise I'll be knee deep before October..... which I know works for some people but not for me

That's exactly how I see it too