Has anyone had a Cheltenham 2022 punt yet

[Istabraq]

for me its not just about value its about risking an amount i would be happy to win to make it a worthwhile bet a year ahead... at double figures you can double up or even single prices to get a pretty decent return and something to look forward to a year out.

at 5s I'd have to bet a much larger stake than normal as I'm a small stakes punter so unless I'm pulling trebles together I'm not going to feel like risk is worth the reward. Definitely feels like the bookies have over corrected so I am going to adjust my approach otherwise I'll be knee deep before October..... which I know works for some people but not for me

Yep, many see it this way, but whatever way you strip it down the market still says the horse has a 20% chance of winning the Supreme 50 weeks out, throw in any number of others to create doubles/trebles etc so the potential return increases to a much higher level but he's still 20% for the Supreme.
After the 2020 Champion Bumper Ferny Hollow was a superstar and would win whatever race he made in 2021, Appreciate It was heading for the Ballymore or Potato race, and Queens Brook was a warm order for the Mares Novice, hence the 5/1 Sir Gerhard about one specific race being, in my opinion, an horrific price...

[Kautostar]

Yep, many see it this way, but whatever way you strip it down the market still says the horse has a 20% chance of winning the Supreme 50 weeks out, throw in any number of others to create doubles/trebles etc so the potential return increases to a much higher level but he's still 20% for the Supreme.
After the 2020 Champion Bumper Ferny Hollow was a superstar and would win whatever race he made in 2021, Appreciate It was heading for the Ballymore or Potato race, and Queens Brook was a warm order for the Mares Novice, hence the 5/1 Sir Gerhard about one specific race being, in my opinion, an horrific price...

I agree the pricing of a lot of fancied horses and all the cuts yesterday are horrific but if people keep backing them at those odds a precedent will be set for the future. Why would they offer 16/1 if people still take the 5s!

[Craigy14]

I agree the pricing of a lot of fancied horses and all the cuts yesterday are horrific but if people keep backing them at those odds a precedent will be set for the future. Why would they offer 16/1 if people still take the 5s!

Agree with all this Kauto but it comes back to some of the points I was trying to make.

Are people doing it again this season through boredom? Because they clicked with novices last year? Etc etc.

I have to say the activity and amount bets already being placed just on here is huge, compared to the last 2/3 years. I’ve played 5 singles so far more through FOMO on their price dropping because the activity seems so high and they are cut to a price I wouldn’t see as good value.

Now the above may be how people play antepost but I’d be more inclined that only a few tend to do this and have probably backed pre cheltenham to get the big rewards.

[Istabraq]

I agree the pricing of a lot of fancied horses and all the cuts yesterday are horrific but if people keep backing them at those odds a precedent will be set for the future. Why would they offer 16/1 if people still take the 5s!

Absolutely, there’ll be an army of punters who came out of Cheltenham with a few quid who were expecting 10/1 see 5/1 and think I’ll have 2 points instead of 1, so many people bet this way which backs up the point here, no need to go any bigger....

[MadeinJapan]

I make 5/1 madness.
Backing Bumper horses progressing to the Supreme has been a surefire route to the poor house over the years, Appreciate It is the exception not the rule.
Even if nothing appears from France, and the horse maintains full health, and shows a sufficient high level of form, you still need to get the target right.
5/1 just stinks for me...

On that note then you take him on with something like Jonbon that’s as unproven over hurdles as Sir Gerhard is but has a lower profile having not won the bumper at Cheltenham (albeit his profile is well touted given a brother to Douvan)... 20/1 vs 5/1. Ok, Sir Gerhard’s got the course form which is a big plus but the point you make about targets is probably more assured for Jonbon (if he turns out to be any good) given Hendo hates bumpers & JP loves a Supreme horse...

[Spectre]

Getting in at the fancy prices 13 months ahead or whatever is fine for me as long as the risk is spread across several horses to cover the eventualities.

I also agree with others that say some of the short prices this season are filthy, but there were filthy ones last year too. Easysland and Epatante quickly spring to mind, and the 6/1, 5/1 for both Shishkin and and Envoi Allen didn’t last long either. I’m not keen on backing anything sub-5/1 in singles ante post, but I’m okay including them in multiples. I’d also say that nobody who were saying Shishkin and Envoi were poor value at 5/1 thought that was true when we got to the Festival and they were short odds on. I understand the arguments about they have to get there, but that risk should be spread across a whole book and not considered in isolation as a single horse.

In short, yes I’d like bigger prices about some of the main contenders, but I know they won’t get any shorter so, I still want them onside now.

[Kautostar]

Getting in at the fancy prices 13 months ahead or whatever is fine for me as long as the risk is spread across several horses to cover the eventualities.

I also agree with others that say some of the short prices this season are filthy, but there were filthy ones last year too. Easysland and Epatante quickly spring to mind, and the 6/1, 5/1 for both Shishkin and and Envoi Allen didn’t last long either. I’m not keen on backing anything sub-5/1 in singles ante post, but I’m okay including them in multiples. I’d also say that nobody who were saying Shishkin and Envoi were poor value at 5/1 thought that was true when we got to the Festival and they were short odds on. I understand the arguments about they have to get there, but that risk should be spread across a whole book and not considered in isolation as a single horse.

In short, yes I’d like bigger prices about some of the main contenders, but I know they won’t get any shorter so, I still want them onside now.

The main difference last year with shishkin and envoi was they had fairly certain targets. It was always mooted that shishkin would go chasing and the Arkle was obvious and envoi although there was a bit of early debate between marsh and the rsa I always felt the marsh was the most likely and this was confirmed by GE early in the season. Plus both of their prices held for a good month or maybe two after Cheltenham.

This time we have appreciate it and bob olinger who are already both shorter than last years duo and have a far from clear target at this stage. Yes the most likely is Arkle and marsh but I would argue that these could quite easily be wrong for both.

[Istabraq]

On that note then you take him on with something like Jonbon that’s

No, I just don’t have a bet yet.
I’ll have no problem hitting SG at 6/4 on the day when he’s proved his health, his form, his ability to jump and I’ve had the chance to assess his opponents, 6/4 then would probably seem decent value.
Everyone plays differently, I just won’t get drawn into backing any horse unless I think he/she offers value, we’re all just kind of dumbstruck because in June and July last year we’re getting 33/1 Quilixios, 20/1 Galvin, 33/1 Bob Olinger and 8/1 Monkfish, there just doesn’t seem to be anything whose target is clear and ability match the value of those.
Hopefully there are a few nuggets out there we’re just missing at the moment, perhaps Aintree and the Irish festivals will change things...

[Frankely My Dear]

Is the general consensus that Jonbon will likely head towards the Supreme being with Henderson? 20-1 looks skinny for a 1-win horse but would presume 'any race' will be skinnier, so I'm considering doubling it up with something like Shishkin or Bob just to get it covered. Although Bob appears to have 2 potential targets...

[MadeinJapan]

Is the general consensus that Jonbon will likely head towards the Supreme being with Henderson? 20-1 looks skinny for a 1-win horse but would presume 'any race' will be skinnier, so I'm considering doubling it up with something like Shishkin or Bob just to get it covered. Although Bob appears to have 2 potential targets...

IMO yes, if they think he’s good enough to run at Cheltenham he’ll be in the Supreme... Hendo doesn’t often target the bumpers & JP likes a runner in the Supreme from past evidence, generally has more runners aimed there than Triumph... Binocular, My Tent Or Yours, Darlan recent examples I can think of... he’s 9/1 any race with Sky which defz. seems skinny

[Liverpoolchamp]

Absolutely, there’ll be an army of punters who came out of Cheltenham with a few quid who were expecting 10/1 see 5/1 and think I’ll have 2 points instead of 1, so many people bet this way which backs up the point here, no need to go any bigger....

If Harry Findlay could see u now! He always said just cause u miss the 10/1 don’t be afraid of taking the 5/1!

[Istabraq]

If Harry Findlay could see u now! He always said just cause u miss the 10/1 don’t be afraid of taking the 5/1!

Harry Findlay is a shrewd punter, I doubt he would have applied that logic 350 days before the race...

[Spectre]

The main difference last year with shishkin and envoi was they had fairly certain targets. It was always mooted that shishkin would go chasing and the Arkle was obvious and envoi although there was a bit of early debate between marsh and the rsa I always felt the marsh was the most likely and this was confirmed by GE early in the season. Plus both of their prices held for a good month or maybe two after Cheltenham.

This time we have appreciate it and bob olinger who are already both shorter than last years duo and have a far from clear target at this stage. Yes the most likely is Arkle and marsh but I would argue that these could quite easily be wrong for both.

Not true KS. Shishkin going up in trip for the Marsh was mooted at one point, and there was a fear the Envoi Allen would go up in trip for the RSA for a large part of the season. I never felt either would happen, and I don’t with the novice class of 21’ either. I will have a bit of cover on each either way though as I did last year.

[Craigy14]

Just a note for those thinking of backing Jonbon before his bumper. 20/1 with most or lower but can get boosted 28/1 with Lads.

[charlie]

No, I just don’t have a bet yet.
I’ll have no problem hitting SG at 6/4 on the day when he’s proved his health, his form, his ability to jump and I’ve had the chance to assess his opponents, 6/4 then would probably seem decent value.
Everyone plays differently, I just won’t get drawn into backing any horse unless I think he/she offers value, we’re all just kind of dumbstruck because in June and July last year we’re getting 33/1 Quilixios, 20/1 Galvin, 33/1 Bob Olinger and 8/1 Monkfish, there just doesn’t seem to be anything whose target is clear and ability match the value of those.
Hopefully there are a few nuggets out there we’re just missing at the moment, perhaps Aintree and the Irish festivals will change things...

What price do you think SG should be, and what price would you take about him now?

My answer to the above is 12/1. I think that would about right and I'd take a point on that.