Do we think Galopin des champs goes RSA?
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Has anyone had a Cheltenham 2022 punt yet
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Originally posted by charlie View PostI am going to pick a few races in 2022 (maybe 3) and try to make a book on the race.
I will be going back through the archive threads (what a life haha) to see how seasons have historically unfolded, but to me, the RSA looks the perfect place to start.
I was gutted I missed out on the Monkfish prices, and as a winner of the AB he was an obvious bet that passed me by. So was Champ the previous year. So was TOTG (although definitely not at this point of the season).
I haven't got this race right ante post and I am determined to rectify this and that starts now!
Out of the 3 novice chases I believe it's the 'easiest' race to identify potential challengers now. The Arkle and Marsh are a nightmare, whereas the Albert Bartlett and Ballymore 1/2/3 has a history of producing RSA contenders, and based on what we know now, I think we can make educated guesses as to who will go novice chasing, and what will be aimed over 3m.
It's interesting that the two horses at the top of the ante post market have shown nothing but speed, in Bob Olinger & Appreciate It. We don't even know if their future lies over fences, or 3m, and I'd say its highly unlikely both would be targeted at the RSA, and neither might.
At current prices the Irish horses that leap of the page are:
Galopin Des Champs @ 25/1
Gaillard Du Mesnil @ 27/1
Gentlemansgame @ 33/1
I have to keep reminding myself that the Brits have won 4/7 runnings of the RSA (I will always call it this). The ones that interest me are:
Bravemansgame @ 16/1
Imperial Alcazar @ 50/1
Gallyhill @ 50/1
I am going to give this race some serious thought and get some positions in the book nice and early.
The only bet I have made so far is Gaillard Du Mesnil. I think he's a good ante post bet @ 27/1 with Hills. He handled Cheltenham and just run into an exceptional horse in BO who did him for speed. It's clear he wants fences and a bit further, and that he has oodles of class. He's a big money purchase for JD, trained by Willie Mullins, second in a Ballymore, exceptionally bred, he just ticks so many RSA boxes, even at this very early stage.
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Originally posted by charlie View PostI am going to pick a few races in 2022 (maybe 3) and try to make a book on the race.
I will be going back through the archive threads (what a life haha) to see how seasons have historically unfolded, but to me, the RSA looks the perfect place to start.
I was gutted I missed out on the Monkfish prices, and as a winner of the AB he was an obvious bet that passed me by. So was Champ the previous year. So was TOTG (although definitely not at this point of the season).
I haven't got this race right ante post and I am determined to rectify this and that starts now!
Out of the 3 novice chases I believe it's the 'easiest' race to identify potential challengers now. The Arkle and Marsh are a nightmare, whereas the Albert Bartlett and Ballymore 1/2/3 has a history of producing RSA contenders, and based on what we know now, I think we can make educated guesses as to who will go novice chasing, and what will be aimed over 3m.
It's interesting that the two horses at the top of the ante post market have shown nothing but speed, in Bob Olinger & Appreciate It. We don't even know if their future lies over fences, or 3m, and I'd say its highly unlikely both would be targeted at the RSA, and neither might.
At current prices the Irish horses that leap of the page are:
Galopin Des Champs @ 25/1
Gaillard Du Mesnil @ 27/1
Gentlemansgame @ 33/1
I have to keep reminding myself that the Brits have won 4/7 runnings of the RSA (I will always call it this). The ones that interest me are:
Bravemansgame @ 16/1
Imperial Alcazar @ 50/1
Gallyhill @ 50/1
I am going to give this race some serious thought and get some positions in the book nice and early.
The only bet I have made so far is Gaillard Du Mesnil. I think he's a good ante post bet @ 27/1 with Hills. He handled Cheltenham and just run into an exceptional horse in BO who did him for speed. It's clear he wants fences and a bit further, and that he has oodles of class. He's a big money purchase for JD, trained by Willie Mullins, second in a Ballymore, exceptionally bred, he just ticks so many RSA boxes, even at this very early stage.
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Originally posted by Sprinter Sacre View Post
Watched the Ballymore back and I think this is a great argument for GDM, I got 33/1 at 365.
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Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post
I agree entirely. He just looks like he wants further. Stayed on lovely behind Bob in the Ballymore. Was a class apart from what would be the Irish contingent for the AB field at DRF too over 2m6. My only concern is that post DRF, Willie stated that 2m4 was his distance. I know that can change, and WIllie himself says he doesn't often know a horses best trip, but it's a point worth noting.
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Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post
I agree entirely. He just looks like he wants further. Stayed on lovely behind Bob in the Ballymore. Was a class apart from what would be the Irish contingent for the AB field at DRF too over 2m6. My only concern is that post DRF, Willie stated that 2m4 was his distance. I know that can change, and WIllie himself says he doesn't often know a horses best trip, but it's a point worth noting.
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Originally posted by charlie View Post
I wouldn't be concerned. Post Ballymore he delivered the perfect quote re RSA - Gaillard Du Mesnil ran well but he was beaten by a much better horse on the day. Maybe he needs a bit further. We'll look at next year going over fences
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One thing I have noticed if we are talking about Bob Ollinger, HDB has only had one runner in the Marsh since its inception in 2012, Sizing Gold in 2014.
Now that may just be lack of firepower to target the race but he’s always been renowned for improving horses for fences so I would have expected maybe a few more runners at least.
Just something to think about, also why going in so early is not wise at this stage imo.
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Horses who have won the RSA having raced at Cheltenham the previous year:
2012: Bobs Worth - 1st AB
2014: O'Faolains Boy - 4th AB
2015: Don Poli - 1st MP
2016: Blaklion - PU AB
2018: Presenting Percy - 1st Pertemps
2019: Topofthegame - 2nd Pertemps
2020: Champ - 2nd Ballymore
2021: Monkfish - 1st AB
Basically, the Albert Bartlett, Martin Pipe, Ballymore and Pertemps are important races to keep in mind.
For me, there are 4 clear horses to take out of Cheltenham with a view to the RSA at the current prices:
Ballymore - Gaillard Du Mesnil @ 27/1 2pts (Hills)
Gaillard Du Mesnil looks a classy animal, and I don't think there is anything wrong with being outpaced by Bob Olinger. Fences and a little bit further has been confirmed by Willie, and I just think he has a fantastic profile for the RSA. Nearly 30/1 for a Grade 1 winning hurdler, 2nd in a Ballymore, trained by the master - it has to go in the book.
Martin Pipe - Galopin Des Champs @ 40/1 2pts (Unibet)
Ruby was very sweet on Galopin Des Champs pre-Cheltenham - post Cheltenham it's clear to see why. He travelled beautifully and readily pissed up - the Martin Pipe has produced winners before and at 40/1 he has to go in the book.
Ballymore - Bravemansgame @ 16/1 2pts (Sky)
I didn't want to back Bravemansgame, but I feel it would be a mistake not to. Plenty of novice hurdlers turn into tools over fences and PN is a great trainer of chasers, so at 16/1 he has to go into the book. He also loves targeting the RSA with the ones he really likes and after getting rolled over in the 4 miler (cheers Galvin) hopefully all roads lead here.
Albert Bartlett - Vanillier @ 2pt 12/1 2pts (Sky)
Vanillier will probably be the shortest priced horse I back for the next 6 months. The AB is a tried and tested path for RSA winners, and Vannillier absolutely hosed up, so I've had to add him. I watched the race back twice before adding him and think it was the right call.
Steering clear of Bob Olinger and Appreciate It for the time being. I am not sure they will go here and they are plenty short enough. Will monitor what is said post Spring Festivals with a view to getting them involved.
A few horses who disappointed or missed Cheltenham that I have also added because they are big prices:
FiveOclock @ 66/1 0.5pts (Unibet)
My Drogo @ 28/1 1pt (Unibet)
Imperial Alcazar @ 56/1 0.5pts (Hills)
Gallyhill @ 56/1 0.5pts (Hills)
Ashdale Bob @ 66/1 (Sky)
For me any horse that missed or disappointed at Cheltenham shouldn't be going into the book at 50/1 or less because I just don't think it will be profitable. I made an exception with My Drogo on the basis he looks like a proper chaser and Milan has a habit of producing decent 3 milers at Cheltenham.
I have never attempted making a book on a race before so this should be fun and hopefully profitable!
Last edited by charlie; 21 March 2021, 12:00 PM.
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Originally posted by Craigy14 View PostOne thing I have noticed if we are talking about Bob Ollinger, HDB has only had one runner in the Marsh since its inception in 2012, Sizing Gold in 2014.
Now that may just be lack of firepower to target the race but he’s always been renowned for improving horses for fences so I would have expected maybe a few more runners at least.
Just something to think about, also why going in so early is not wise at this stage imo.
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Originally posted by charlie View Post
I wouldn't be concerned. Post Ballymore he delivered the perfect quote re RSA - Gaillard Du Mesnil ran well but he was beaten by a much better horse on the day. Maybe he needs a bit further. We'll look at next year going over fences
Cheers, Charlie.
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