Staking

[Another Value Loser]

I’m sure I’m not alone here but lockdown #1 was a seriously dull period in life, no question I overplayed (for Cheltenham 2021) during this time but I did make a point of focussing on multi’s, and in particular patents, so whilst I had a lack of serious single plays I have, by way of the patents, racked up some half serious positions, it’s just a shame I backed so many pigs.

Lobos made a very good early on, yes Lobos, about playing the extra place multiples on the day and although I’ve very restricted by choice I think I’ll do more of that this year.
Spectre also made an excellent point about getting rid of bets you don’t like, I think this is a great strategy but is entirely dependent on having the cash out facility which, for 95% of mine, won’t work...

I definitely got a bit more trigger happy during that initial Lockdown period too Ista (what else was there to do?!), Will be interested to look back and compare what % of early bets make up my total antepost book compared to a normal year.

[Another Value Loser]

I'm similar to that, I'll definitely be playing forcast/tricasts in the handicaps each day in lots of combinations... to try and land a big one.

Usually on the week I just plug any huge and scary gaps.... maybe a few in handicaps if the place terms are good etc...


The majority will already be done this year I hope, had more time than ever to focus on it - I'm surprised anyone has fewer ante post bets so fair play FTM!

The forecasts/tricasts were one thing I made a note of to properly have a go at for this year Kevloaf . I intend to have a pot of money allocated for them and see how I get on.

There have been a few situations from the past two festivals where I have kicked myself post-race for not staking forecasts/tricasts although i'm wary this could be confirmation bias and it's easy to forget the (many, many) situations where I would have got it wrong.

I need to have a think about selection criteria too as it's very easy to include the 4-5 you've already backed in a handicap, throw in another 3-4 you 'considered staking' and can easily end up with a stupid number of combinations!

[Kevloaf]

The forecasts/tricasts were one thing I made a note of to properly have a go at for this year Kevloaf . I intend to have a pot of money allocated for them and see how I get on.

There have been a few situations from the past two festivals where I have kicked myself post-race for not staking forecasts/tricasts although i'm wary this could be confirmation bias and it's easy to forget the (many, many) situations where I would have got it wrong.

I need to have a think about selection criteria too as it's very easy to include the 4-5 you've already backed in a handicap, throw in another 3-4 you 'considered staking' and can easily end up with a stupid number of combinations!

I never got round to actually posting about it in detail but I was down from doing it last year.... however a better staking plan (or being consistent at least) would have seen me do quite well!

I'll split stakes this year and do both forecast and tricasts, and it'll be over pretty much everything I back, plus the FAV (whether backed or not)... and then just anything I'm scared of...

In terms of the 'pot' for that, I'll just be using any NRMB returns I get back, which for me is usually a lot as I back a lot in multiple races.


That's the plan anyway, we can discuss them closer to the time, might be a few interested in it as an angle/approach/bit of fun!

[Lobos]

Lobos made a very good early on, yes Lobos, about playing the extra place multiples on the day and although I’ve very restricted by choice I think I’ll do more of that this year.

Cheeky F**Ker !

Yep, no secret that me and my mate love our Ew cross doubles on the Handicap races each day. Normally pick two in one race and 3 horses in another and do 6x 2pt Ew cross doubles (24pts in total). Don't have to be big prices . We rarely fail to make a tidy profit from them over the week especially with the additional places. Last year we crossed SDB and The Storyteller in the Pertempts with Simply the Betts, Happy Diva and Spirit of the Games in the Plate and picked up nearly 200pts. That's why I rarely bet much in the way of singles in the handicaps before the week itself. I just save the cash for our cross doubles. Great fun too not just concentrating on who's winning the race but also interested in who's finishing 40 lengths back in 6th !!

[Eggs]

The early a/r markets are definitely something I want to spend some time on scanning over at the start of next season.

Will be intrigued to look back post-festival to see how the roll-ups and win today selections get on. You've done a cracking job keeping the "win today" thread updated Eggs

....cheers, Matey, be interesting if one or two of those ‘win today’ offers come in and a good steer for next year.

[Spectre]

Very interesting Spectre . I have always been reluctant to get involved with the EW multiples too early in the season due to the levels of uncertainty. Out of interest, are all of those EW multiples staked with cashout?

I think one benefit of spending all of the festival at home is it will give me greater chance to stake some more EW multiples (utilising the extra places) and then trade out of any positions as and when required.

None of the early ones are with cashout AVL. The majority were done in Mar-Jul.

The beneift is getting horses like Envoi Allen 5/1, Shiskin 6/1, Monkfish 10/1 in multiples with horses like Easysland and Epatante, plus others that I really liked post-Festival. It's inevitable that I take hits, and I'm prepared to accept only a handful may still run, but the multiplied prices for horses you'd have confidence in more than make up for it. This year so far I've been incredibly lucky and very few have gone down, and I'm probably in the best position I've ever been with the long range stuff. I'm keeping my fingers, toes and anything else I can cross that it stays that way, particularly as we're firmly in the prime OOTF territory now.

Hopefully there will be some really good ones to add in the immediate lead up. There's no need to take unneccesary risks now, so I like to see the final decs for the first two days and then take a call on days three and four before addimg a bunch of doubles and trebles, and the odd bookie limit breaker.