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Originally posted by Spectre
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That's a really good comeback CoD. But I will say I haven't tried to make the case to fit the horse however it may seem. I did the reverse. He was one of a very small number that are likely to come here that you can make a genuine case for.
I add in my own trends and race reading to fall on a selection, and from those I mentioned Gordon's horses and why I discounted them.
There's only one possible candidate from the Hennessy in Aye Right and I do rate him as a serious rival.
Then the likely novice entries of which I only really rate three as threats at the moment, two of which you've named, and the third being Secret Reprieve. Nick Mitchell has said a graded chase for Lieutenant Rocco, Secret Reprieve hasn't had his target nominated, and If The Cap Fit likely comes here. He's not for me though, but I understand the case you make for him. I think he's too slow, you need something prominent that holds their pitch, I'm also concerend about his course form. Essentially I see him running on into a place at best rather than vying for the lead down the hill.
Of last years class that usually do well. three of the first four won't make it here, and only The Conditional is a possible. I understand the case being made for him, but connections clearly aren't concerned about his mark, and their intention is to run in the Gold Cup. A soft ground Grade 1 over three miles twenty three days beforehand is not good prep for a handicap like this. And if he can't be competitive against the majority of that field it's unlike that his current mark is ahead of the handicapper.
Apologies with regards the Henderson reference. I was writing from the top of my head rather than going back to the work I did. However, I'm not aware of a serious candiate from Seven Barrows. I'd have considered Dickie Diver, but he won't be handicapped anyway.
There are two more that I had in the mix in Whatmore and Coo Star Sivola.
Anyway without writing war and peace, my shorlist became the following four:
Happygolucky
Aye Right
Coo Star Sivola
Whatmore
Elliott's entry
Of those, Kim Bailey has confirmed Happygolucky comes here. I'd been told so strainght from the (assistants) horses mouth, and I think someone that posts here has also had it corroborated by asking Kim Bailey.
Aye Right hasn't been discounted, but Hariet Graham has mentioned Aintree and Ayr, so it may be that he doesn't come here. i think he's a very credible candidate though.
Coo Star Sivola will presumably come here, and not without a chance given he's done it before. Off his current 135 he's got to get in though, and in two of the last three years he wouldn't.
Whatmore I like also. I think jhe'll come here. But I see him more as a horse that runs into a place. He lacks tactical speed. And he doensn't fit the usual profile anyway.
If Escaria Ten is really well handicapped then fair enough, but is he likely to have improved significantly more than Happygolucky for a switch to fences? To my eye, Happygolucky is every bit as good a jumper than Escaria Ten, and you only need to look at last seasons Martin Pipe to get a measure of their comparitive basic ability. I can't see anything that suggests ET has improved hand over fist quicker than Happygolucky.
Coc Beach has already had the National Hunt Chase nominated by Elliott.
So which horses do I fear? None specifically. I do wonder if JP might divert something here though. He has a fair few three mile handicapper to split up, so I'll be keeping a close eye on entries.
Anyway, this has kind of take it off track. It's the bet I'm an advocate of. Happygolucky is just my nominated horse.
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