Doing an 'Naiad'

[FinalFurlong91]

His hurdles form looks the part especially his 4th in the Martin pipe

But I'm not sure he looks that well handicapped off 147 looking at the bare form of his chase runs

he got beaten by getaway trump who is useless

And the form of his win hasnt been advertised well by the mighty don and hold the note

[nortonscoin200]

Spectre, I would like to object to this premeditated group plunge in the strongest possible terms!!!

Having convinced me that Happygolucky merits becoming a galactico of the DAY ONE YANKEE - you now intend to lead a battalion of followers to back the bugger into oblivion before I'm allowed to pull the trigger on the each way yank after final decs.

We'll be lucky to get 5-2!!!!

I'm on board for 100 points and that's probably it for me. But I wish you well with this swashbuckling strategy.

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m not massively sure why we’re all steaming into this horse but it’s a race I always struggle with, deliberately avoid until late and have nothing in (actually I have Escoria Ten any race who may end up here) so I’m happy to have a little bit at 33/1 simply because there’s enough of the right people on here who like the horse that I suppose I’m happy to get on what is essentially a forum plunge. I’ll back it NRNB and by the time I get to the race in a couple of weeks time, I can either cash it out or lay it off if I don’t like the horse. However, if he’s indeed much shorter, I’ll be alright letting it run for a small stake.

Good luck spectre.

[Nortons who]

Was that you Spectre who backed it on the Exchange at 100-1 and will now be laying it back after this Industry wide plunge you have created. You don't tip shares as well do you ?

[charlie]

His hurdles form looks the part especially his 4th in the Martin pipe

But I'm not sure he looks that well handicapped off 147 looking at the bare form of his chase runs

he got beaten by getaway trump who is useless

And the form of his win hasnt been advertised well by the mighty don and hold the note

Yeh his MP run was very good, and he hits the front 3 IMO were it not for he who shall not be named falling

I think it's fair to say we can't be sure if he's well handicapped off 147, it could genuinely go either way. Re the form and with a view to the Ultima, I think you can put a line through Getaway Trump on good ground over 2m5f. At the start of the season Kim was debating RSA which tells you what he thinks of the horse. He beat Paint The Dream giving away 3lbs who hasn't disgraced himself since, beating Dickie Diver and putting in a mighty effort in the Scilly Isles. He's completely unexposed over 3m over fences and I thought he won well LTO, just got to the front too soon.

[Quevega]

Nick Mitchell has said he runs in a graded chase. RSA? They could change their mind of course, but that was the last position.

He's been backed quite strongly for this since.
And Bailey (not exactly reliable) mentioned the four miler for haopygolucky the last time he won.

I know he's tweeted since btw about the ultima (bailey), as I backed off the back of it.
Just pointing out the way these guys change their minds.
So rocco going for the rsa and happy in the ultima is entirely possible of course.

[Spectre]

Was that you Spectre who backed it on the Exchange at 100-1 and will now be laying it back after this Industry wide plunge you have created. You don't tip shares as well do you ?

Categorically not NW.

[Atlantic Viking]

Where were people getting 33/1 yesterday?

[Quevega]

Where were people getting 33/1 yesterday?

I got 33's with B365 on the 17th. think betfred had it at that also.
It was cut to 25's either that evening, or yesterday morning.
oddschecker has it as the 17th - wednesday.

[Istabraq]

365 shortened this to 20/1 since last night presumably on the back of a member/lurker plunge...

[Spectre]

Clearly with these kind of bets, it's important to take your own view on them. I like him a lot, but others will feel that he's opposable and will have a stong view on something else. The point here is not to specifically get hung up on Happygolucky, it's the method and strategy I'm highlighting, and I'm using him as my example this Festival.

Very obviously it's important to bet sensibly, and everyone should do that within their own means. Chasing a winner can be the same as chasing losses. If that's the motivation, I'd never suggest doing a bet like this, because it potentially feeds the wrong mindset, but using it as part of an overall strategy can be really useful.

The point being that we all have strong positions on a horse or horses in the graded races, but we rarely take a similar position in the handicaps. My rationale is based on risk/reward. We are very close to the Festival now, and single figure SP horses are currently available in the handicaps at 33/1 and 25/1, etc. It's just understanding the likely makeup of the race from an historical perspective, and narrowing down to the type(s) of horses that win and go close. Profiling in certain races can get down to a fairly short shortlist, and the Ultima for me is currently the easiest of all the handicaps to do that. It also relies on keeping your ear to the ground and understanding what trainers intend to do. You can also mitigate to a degree, by adding in perhps two or three other likely types to cover stakes.

The flip side is that people are still scrambling for positions in races lke the Supreme and the Albert Bartlett, and have missed prices in the Bumper and Triumph. The temptation is to find pretty much anything to oppose the favourite with. But surely it's better to find a possible winner at a big price in a handicap now, rather than back something in a graded race at a shorter price that's probably running for place money against a favourite and likely winner.

What I'm suggesting here isn't for everyone. It does work for me though. Over the years, horses have lost as well as won, so it's not a one-sided argument where cast iroin certainties exist, but with a sensible strategy over the long-term it can be a nicely profitable bet. The difference here is that most of us are trying to make a profit by balancing what we do across 28 races, whereas I'm looking at this bet as something that becomes profitable across multiple Festivals. On that basis it's really a bet for those people who take Cheltenham seriously and are in it for the long-term.

The question has been asked whether I'm highlighting a horse here to drive a price down for a lay position. No, I'm not. This strategy is my single horse equivalent of multi-leg bets, but in this instance it gives me the potential of a really good return, for a staking level that is more than acceptable when compared to all my other Festival bets, and I'm only relying on one horse rather than several for my bigger return. I won't lay off a penny at any point unless I get wind of a problem, or it there was a fundamental gamechanger like a possible switch in target. This bet all about trying to take a profit from one horse and overlaying that bet and possible return with all my other strategies, without doing any real harm to my overall returns if it goes down. He could fall, he could run like a pig, he could get injured, I could just be plain wrong about him. If any of those things happen, I've backed him to a stake I'm comfortable with, and the dent in my P&L is at a more than acceptable level when compared to both the win and place returns if he's the horse I think he is.

[Hurricane fly]

So to simplify this is the idea of picking one horse you like and betting it down as it’s price shortens with the idea that if it comes in it could be a really big win?


if so I did that last year with Carefully selected and had pretty much every price from 25s down to 5s before deciding it was enough.

He then lost at odds on and I hated life

[Hardy Eustace]

Really like this, and around about now is the best time to do it. Better get increasing my position on Happygolucky! Lets give the bookies a good hiding! HOORAH!

[MTR]

So to simplify this is the idea of picking one horse you like and betting it down as it’s price shortens with the idea that if it comes in it could be a really big win?


if so I did that last year with Carefully selected and had pretty much every price from 25s down to 5s before deciding it was enough.

He then lost at odds on and I hated life

Haha, I done exactly the same

[Brital]

Loving this

I’ve fallen in behind your standard Spectre, and will follow you into battle.
Captain, my Captain! Onwards men, once more into the breach!

Can you imagine the collective slump from FJ if it falls at the first