Doing an 'Naiad'

[jack1092]

2020: NH 11th & PU, KB 4th

When you mention 'English trainer to win this race in recent years' you left out Hendo, presumably to further your case for Happygolucky's trainer to fit the 'mould'. Happygolucky has also been mentioned for the NH Chase, so unless you have the word of the trainer that he's been targeted here (even if I do agree it's his most likely target) then I'd say it's not quite as cut and dry as that myself.

Trainer said "Ultima" on twitter.

[ComplyOrDie]

Trainer said "Ultima" on twitter.

He was also mentioned for the NH Chase, though, right? I guess the latest was/is 'Ultima' as you note above, so in that case I shall accept this being his likely destination.

[Spectre]

The majority of the case made is very good Spectre, however I strongly disagree with some of this.

'Hendo has no idea with this race', yet he won it two seasons ago, and has won it more times (2) than Kim Bailey (1). He's also had a lot more runners (albeit some have been tosh), but you'd think he'd know the race a little better than KB. In fact the figures for both trainers since 2010 are as follows:

2010: No runner for either trainer
2011: NH 2nd. KB no runner
2012: NH 7th & PU. KB no runner
2013: NH PU & PU. KB no runner
2014: NH 2nd, 14th & 17th. KB PU
2015: No runner for either trainer
2016: No runner for either trainer
2017: No runner for either trainer
2018: NH 4th, 10th & PU, KB no runner
2019: NH 1st & 12th, KB no runner
2020: NH 11th & PU, KB 4th

When you mention 'English trainer to win this race in recent years' you left out Hendo, presumably to further your case for Happygolucky's trainer to fit the 'mould'. Happygolucky has also been mentioned for the NH Chase, so unless you have the word of the trainer that he's been targeted here (even if I do agree it's his most likely target) then I'd say it's not quite as cut and dry as that myself.

Likewise, with the serious rivals comment, we don't know his rivals yet, he could still end up with 4 or 5 (maybe more) serious rivals, but you've used ones that suit/back up the argument for him, yet ultimately them horses you mention are out of the way for every other horse too not just Happygolucky, so that's no more a positive for him as it would be any other in the race.

Now, there's no point me given you some feedback without actually having an opinion of my own.

For starters, IF, and of course, it's a big IF, Gordon sends Escaria Ten & Coko Beach (among others) to the race then for me that is as strong a hand as Gordon would have ever played in the race and they become serious opposition. He'll win the race at some point, though I don't think he's generally targeted it properly yet. Lieutenant Rocco has as much chance coming here as Happygolucky does, he looks a fairly useful animal for a trainer that would probably fit the mould. I know you've knocked The Conditional, due to his likely run at the weekend, but no guarantee he's going to be given a hard time or indeed end up in a Gold Cup, he could come here and being the reigning champ of the race he'd have to be considered serious opposition. For me, as I've mentioned previously, If The Cap Fits is the class angle in the race. His hurdles form is clear of any of his likely rivals in this field, obviously this isn't hurdles, but the back class is there for all to see. He is 9, so less chance of any improvement than some, despite being a novice chaser, but he's also only a chase rating of 152, some 14lbs lower than his peak hurdles rating. I know Ista has some speed concerns, but I think a strongly run, stiff 3m trip will suit myself.

I just want to confirm, I don't dislike Happygolucky, although now the 33/1 has well and truly gone I can't see me backing him, I just didn't agree with some of the case made for him, despite the majority of it being very good

That's a really good comeback CoD. But I will say I haven't tried to make the case to fit the horse however it may seem. I did the reverse. He was one of a very small number that are likely to come here that you can make a genuine case for.

I add in my own trends and race reading to fall on a selection, and from those I mentioned Gordon's horses and why I discounted them.

There's only one possible candidate from the Hennessy in Aye Right and I do rate him as a serious rival.

Then the likely novice entries of which I only really rate three as threats at the moment, two of which you've named, and the third being Secret Reprieve. Nick Mitchell has said a graded chase for Lieutenant Rocco, Secret Reprieve hasn't had his target nominated, and If The Cap Fit likely comes here. He's not for me though, but I understand the case you make for him. I think he's too slow, you need something prominent that holds their pitch, I'm also concerend about his course form. Essentially I see him running on into a place at best rather than vying for the lead down the hill.

Of last years class that usually do well. three of the first four won't make it here, and only The Conditional is a possible. I understand the case being made for him, but connections clearly aren't concerned about his mark, and their intention is to run in the Gold Cup. A soft ground Grade 1 over three miles twenty three days beforehand is not good prep for a handicap like this. And if he can't be competitive against the majority of that field it's unlike that his current mark is ahead of the handicapper.

Apologies with regards the Henderson reference. I was writing from the top of my head rather than going back to the work I did. However, I'm not aware of a serious candiate from Seven Barrows. I'd have considered Dickie Diver, but he won't be handicapped anyway.

There are two more that I had in the mix in Whatmore and Coo Star Sivola.

Anyway without writing war and peace, my shorlist became the following four:

Happygolucky
Aye Right
Coo Star Sivola
Whatmore
Elliott's entry

Of those, Kim Bailey has confirmed Happygolucky comes here. I'd been told so strainght from the (assistants) horses mouth, and I think someone that posts here has also had it corroborated by asking Kim Bailey.

Aye Right hasn't been discounted, but Hariet Graham has mentioned Aintree and Ayr, so it may be that he doesn't come here. i think he's a very credible candidate though.

Coo Star Sivola will presumably come here, and not without a chance given he's done it before. Off his current 135 he's got to get in though, and in two of the last three years he wouldn't.

Whatmore I like also. I think jhe'll come here. But I see him more as a horse that runs into a place. He lacks tactical speed. And he doensn't fit the usual profile anyway.

If Escaria Ten is really well handicapped then fair enough, but is he likely to have improved significantly more than Happygolucky for a switch to fences? To my eye, Happygolucky is every bit as good a jumper than Escaria Ten, and you only need to look at last seasons Martin Pipe to get a measure of their comparitive basic ability. I can't see anything that suggests ET has improved hand over fist quicker than Happygolucky.

Coc Beach has already had the National Hunt Chase nominated by Elliott.

So which horses do I fear? None specifically. I do wonder if JP might divert something here though. He has a fair few three mile handicapper to split up, so I'll be keeping a close eye on entries.

Anyway, this has kind of take it off track. It's the bet I'm an advocate of. Happygolucky is just my nominated horse.

[Spectre]

Spectre - you may have answered this already but in one of the earlier posts somebody asked why you don't put your intended stakes on in one go at the higher price? Especially given the security blanket of NRNB and you being really clear on the horses intended target anyway, what's the benefit of waiting for the price to contract before punting further? If it's to do with bookies/account restrictions, could you spread the stakes across different firms?

I could, but I prefer to be able to dripfeed my stakes as the various points happen. It's the same answer I gave earlier:

A specualtive stake in the ground initially.
Another when you have confirmation from the trainer
When the entries come out and the horse is officially entered
Followed by the weights to get a better picture of the handful of genuine contenders
And then at the final decalration stage when it's a definite runner

Things happen and change. To be all in now doesn't make sense, to me at least. But I do understand why someone may want to take a different approach. I get opportunites to see horses I hadn't considered entered or as contenders, such as a left field JP entry as suggested above. I also get to see the weights allocated to the Irish horses, what top weight is, and what weight my selection carries. I can re-do my trends and stats at every stage.

Also injuries can happen, particualrly when trainers seriously up the work they put into their horses over the last two or three weeks. Nothing comes here as a serious contender unless they're hard fit, and most horses are as fit here as they have ever been at any point in their career.

It's also a tool that regulates me and forces me to reasses what I think, and to rework the race at the various stages. Also I can adjust my staking to my confidence levels in the final stages of the lead up.

[Spectre]

ComplyOrDie

Also consider I only need the horse to come in the first four/five for a really good return. When you break down the list of possible contenders in the way I have I'm guessing you'd concede that it's highly likely?

[ComplyOrDie]

ComplyOrDie

Also consider I only need the horse to come in the first four/five for a really good return. When you break down the list of possible contenders in the way I have I'm guessing you'd concede that it's highly likely?

Well I haven't broke down every potential runner yet, hopefully next week once entries are out will give us all a better idea, but 5 places up for grabs in a 24 runner field must be an OK % for any horse currently in the market (that's obviously not injured/out/going elsewhere). I think it's about a 20.8% chance (may be wrong) of hitting the frame, just on the number of runners, nothing else taken into account.

[Quevega]

I could, but I prefer to be able to dripfeed my stakes as the various points happen. It's the same answer I gave earlier:

A specualtive stake in the ground initially.
Another when you have confirmation from the trainer
When the entries come out and the horse is officially entered
Followed by the weights to get a better picture of the handful of genuine contenders
And then at the final decalration stage when it's a definite runner

Things happen and change. To be all in now doesn't make sense, to me at least. But I do understand why someone may want to take a different approach. I get opportunites to see horses I hadn't considered entered or as contenders, such as a left field JP entry as suggested above. I also get to see the weights allocated to the Irish horses, what top weight is, and what weight my selection carries. I can re-do my trends and stats at every stage.

Also injuries can happen, particualrly when trainers seriously up the work they put into their horses over the last two or three weeks. Nothing comes here as a serious contender unless they're hard fit, and most horses are as fit here as they have ever been at any point in their career.

It's also a tool that regulates me and forces me to reasses what I think, and to rework the race at the various stages. Also I can adjust my staking to my confidence levels in the final stages of the lead up.

If you really fancy one and wish or anticipate potentially staking a decent amount on, this is a perfectly sensible approach.
The key at each stage, before re-backing is to still perceive the price available to be value, based on the most up to date information.

It's like having a fancy price on Energumene for example, some have him at 50's.
But some would also say he's still value right now.

Some would look to be defensive and lay off or back something else when in this position, but why not stick more on if it's still the one you fancy at the prices ??
I'm much more the former than the latter, but it's something I would do occasionally.
Higher risk vs higher reward.

I think this is part of what this kind of plan is about, although I get that one of the other messages is that you can sometimes pinpoint very good value in some of the handicaps, this far out.

I certainly bet early on these races although prefer NRNB, and I don't tend to go all in on any one horse, I will have more on some than others.
I've not done too bad with the Ultima in particular in recent times but this is usually with a team of about 5 or 6, and I would not have done so well had I pinned my colours to the mast as such.

Although I agree with Spectre in that it can be a race that looks harder than it is and can be narrowed down as to the likely contenders, give or take.
Pretty sure I've had at least 3 placed every year since Holywell won.
Although in terms of winners I missed UTPT and coo start sivola who both chinned by best hopes on the line.

Famous last words
It does look a little trickier this year I reckon.

[Quevega]

One of the main things I learnt and picked up from one of Spectre's first few posts was the mindset to kind of tear up the antepost book once final declarations are out.

And start fresh, for any further bets you wish to make. This is important to me as my stakes are lower ante-post than my day to day stuff.

I've tended to let my position influence, and sometimes forget to still consider the value play. Which is what I always do on a day to day basis.
Neither approach is wrong but I will certainly ensure I'm not just doing complimentary defensive bets just for the sake of it.

I should still ensure the value of the bet is present, and not be afraid to play a horse I have fancy prices on again (psychologically this can be tricky)
I've done it before, but what Spectre said just jolted me to ensure I consider this each time.

[Kevloaf]

Neither approach is wrong but I will certainly ensure I'm not just doing complimentary defensive bets just for the sake of it.

I should still ensure the value of the bet is present, and not be afraid to play a horse I have fancy prices on again (psychologically this can be tricky)
I've done it before, but what Spectre said just jolted me to ensure I consider this each time.

That is very important, something I'll be aware of too moreso than any other year.

Got a lot of faffing to do in some races though to get to that point

[Spectre]

It's not the circumstances I really want to do this given the sad news this afternoon, but it makes it a logical time to add to the Happygolucky stakes given a key rival won't turn up, and the potential is for some kind of market adjustment.

5 points ew 20/1 nrnb

Stake - 30 points
Win - 435.6 points
Place - 88.6 points

[mayo]

Is it not easier to get on with multiples ?

Just make the one you felt best about a banker line ?

[Spectre]

He'll go in some multiples nearer the time Mayo.

[nortonscoin200]

Topped up on The Chosen One.

[Spectre]

I've just reinvested the 5 points ew I managed to cashout from Saint Roi back onto Happygolucky before the last of the 20's goes. I'd imagine 365 will clip him in soon.

Stake - 40 points
Win - 565.6 points
Place - 113.6 points

[Quevega]

I've just reinvested the 5 points ew I managed to cashout from Saint Roi back onto Happygolucky before the last of the 20's goes. I'd imagine 365 will clip him in soon.

Stake - 40 points
Win - 565.6 points
Place - 113.6 points

Do you think the Pipe's might run Remastered in this race ?
He'd be a danger I reckon.