Doing an 'Naiad'

[Brital]

So to simplify this is the idea of picking one horse you like and betting it down as it’s price shortens with the idea that if it comes in it could be a really big win?


if so I did that last year with Carefully selected and had pretty much every price from 25s down to 5s before deciding it was enough.

He then lost at odds on and I hated life

The difference this time though is we get to hate Spectre instead

[MTR]

Newtide runs tomorrow in the 2:25 at Ascot in the same ownership as happygolucky, I fancy him to go well tomorrow so have had a small go on the speculative each way related double.

230/1 Betfair/paddy power.

[robith]

Personally, and maybe it's cos I'm a bit risk averse, but I know there is a ceiling of points on a single horse after which point it is no longer fun.

I won't mention the horses name cos I don't want to sound like an aftertimer. So I once placed 15 points on a horse at the festival. By far the biggest bet I've ever placed. It won. Hurrah.

But as it was ante post, all the races before it were near ruined. I couldn't concentrate, couldn't think, felt sick. Before the off I felt I was on the verge of a panic attack. Only felt relief when it crossed the line.

Further, I don't have enough faith in my own judgement to be backing the same horse multiple times! If I had faith there was still value, maybe - perhaps if I wasn't quite happy with my return or I was to use a free bet

Maybe I'll never end up winning BIG big, but a nice 2-4 points leading to a return I'm happy with and it's a pirate's life for me

[Birds Nest]

Makes me wonder just how much a fj plunge could move a market?????? Could be advantageous to us in the future.

[Spectre]

Personally, and maybe it's cos I'm a bit risk averse, but I know there is a ceiling of points on a single horse after which point it is no longer fun.

I won't mention the horses name cos I don't want to sound like an aftertimer. So I once placed 15 points on a horse at the festival. By far the biggest bet I've ever placed. It won. Hurrah.

But as it was ante post, all the races before it were near ruined. I couldn't concentrate, couldn't think, felt sick. Before the off I felt I was on the verge of a panic attack. Only felt relief when it crossed the line.

Further, I don't have enough faith in my own judgement to be backing the same horse multiple times! If I had faith there was still value, maybe - perhaps if I wasn't quite happy with my return or I was to use a free bet

Maybe I'll never end up winning BIG big, but a nice 2-4 points leading to a return I'm happy with and it's a pirate's life for me

I think that's a really good post to counter-balance Rob. It has to suit both you mentality and pocket.

And as Hurricane Fly says above, you have to accept that horses lose, so getting in deeper than you should isn't the way to go.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Makes me wonder just how much a fj plunge could move a market?????? Could be advantageous to us in the future.

I would say historically we’re pretty good at forcing a cut when a small number of bookies are stand out, but don’t recall a forum horse being really cut across the board. In some respects I think that should be considered a good thing as it shows we are taking best prices and not bothering after that. I still don’t get why you would back a horse down at all prices at this late stage when he won’t be running to enhance his claims. Makes more sense to me to have a bigger bet at the biggest NRNB price available and leave it at that.

[Spectre]

Makes me wonder just how much a fj plunge could move a market?????? Could be advantageous to us in the future.

Pretty much anything moves a market these days Birds Nest. The bookies only need the slightest excuse to shorten a horse.

In the old days it used to just be pricewise. These days a horse mentioned on any old twitter acount seems to shorten.

[Spectre]

I would say historically we’re pretty good at forcing a cut when a small number of bookies are stand out, but don’t recall a forum horse being really cut across the board. In some respects I think that should be considered a good thing as it shows we are taking best prices and not bothering after that. I still don’t get why you would back a horse down at all prices at this late stage when he won’t be running to enhance his claims. Makes more sense to me to have a bigger bet at the biggest NRNB price available and leave it at that.

You can do that too RC.

The point of backing it down at each stage, is another level of confirmation, and a clearer picture of the race itself. These are the points I use:

A specualtive stake in the ground initially.
Another when you have confirmation from the trainer
When the entries come out and the horse is officially entered
Followed by the weights to get a better picture of the handful of genuine contenders
And then at the final decalration stage when it's a definite runner

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

You can do that too RC.

The point of backing it down at each stage, is another level of confirmation, and a clearer picture of the race itself. These are the points I use:

A specualtive stake in the ground initially.
Another when you have confirmation from the trainer
When the entries come out and the horse is officially entered
Followed by the weights to get a better picture of the handful of genuine contenders
And then at the final decalration stage when it's a definite runner

Ok that’s some nice examples, but when you can back NRNB at 20s, I’m personally not sure those factors would make too much difference to me wanting to back him at shorter, certainly couldn’t think what would need to happen for me to be topping up at single figures. The one place I will back down at a lot shorter prices is with free bets, as I have it in my head that bookies feel less taken advantage of when doing this.

[Kevloaf]

Makes me wonder just how much a fj plunge could move a market?????? Could be advantageous to us in the future.

I think quite significantly, but no inclination to do it just for the sake of proving we could. Was popular on the BF forum once upon a time, not sure if they still do it.

[robith]

I think quite significantly, but no inclination to do it just for the sake of proving we could. Was popular on the BF forum once upon a time, not sure if they still do it.

that Betfair forum was a weird auld place

[ComplyOrDie]

Hendo and Nicholls have no idea with this race usually. The big trainers lack genuinely well handicapped contenders. They usually do though.

The English trainers to win this race in recent years are Bridgewater, Nick Williams, David Pipe, Colin Tizzard, Alan King, Neil Mulholland, etc. The placed trainers are similar trainers. Just the mould that Kim Bailey fits. In other words a decent unexposed UK staying chaser that jumps and travels. Happygolucky fits the mould, his profile is perfect, he's been targeted here, he has the requisite Cheltenham experience, and his trainer has a really good handle on what's required. Plus his serious rivals have fallen by the wayside. Cloth Cap bypasses the race, Kildisart is injured, Discorama won't get over his setback in time, and the Conditional is either getting his mark blown and heading to the Gold Cup, or having a hard race too close to the Festival this weekend.

The majority of the case made is very good Spectre, however I strongly disagree with some of this.

'Hendo has no idea with this race', yet he won it two seasons ago, and has won it more times (2) than Kim Bailey (1). He's also had a lot more runners (albeit some have been tosh), but you'd think he'd know the race a little better than KB. In fact the figures for both trainers since 2010 are as follows:

2010: No runner for either trainer
2011: NH 2nd. KB no runner
2012: NH 7th & PU. KB no runner
2013: NH PU & PU. KB no runner
2014: NH 2nd, 14th & 17th. KB PU
2015: No runner for either trainer
2016: No runner for either trainer
2017: No runner for either trainer
2018: NH 4th, 10th & PU, KB no runner
2019: NH 1st & 12th, KB no runner
2020: NH 11th & PU, KB 4th

When you mention 'English trainer to win this race in recent years' you left out Hendo, presumably to further your case for Happygolucky's trainer to fit the 'mould'. Happygolucky has also been mentioned for the NH Chase, so unless you have the word of the trainer that he's been targeted here (even if I do agree it's his most likely target) then I'd say it's not quite as cut and dry as that myself.

Likewise, with the serious rivals comment, we don't know his rivals yet, he could still end up with 4 or 5 (maybe more) serious rivals, but you've used ones that suit/back up the argument for him, yet ultimately them horses you mention are out of the way for every other horse too not just Happygolucky, so that's no more a positive for him as it would be any other in the race.

Now, there's no point me given you some feedback without actually having an opinion of my own.

For starters, IF, and of course, it's a big IF, Gordon sends Escaria Ten & Coko Beach (among others) to the race then for me that is as strong a hand as Gordon would have ever played in the race and they become serious opposition. He'll win the race at some point, though I don't think he's generally targeted it properly yet. Lieutenant Rocco has as much chance coming here as Happygolucky does, he looks a fairly useful animal for a trainer that would probably fit the mould. I know you've knocked The Conditional, due to his likely run at the weekend, but no guarantee he's going to be given a hard time or indeed end up in a Gold Cup, he could come here and being the reigning champ of the race he'd have to be considered serious opposition. For me, as I've mentioned previously, If The Cap Fits is the class angle in the race. His hurdles form is clear of any of his likely rivals in this field, obviously this isn't hurdles, but the back class is there for all to see. He is 9, so less chance of any improvement than some, despite being a novice chaser, but he's also only a chase rating of 152, some 14lbs lower than his peak hurdles rating. I know Ista has some speed concerns, but I think a strongly run, stiff 3m trip will suit myself.

I just want to confirm, I don't dislike Happygolucky, although now the 33/1 has well and truly gone I can't see me backing him, I just didn't agree with some of the case made for him, despite the majority of it being very good

[Atlantic Viking]

that Betfair forum was a weird auld place

It was great fun at its peak, proper little Wild West corner of the internet.

[BeigeBuffetSelection]

Enjoyed reading posts from both sides and this thread has triggered a decent discussion already. I think I personally quite like the idea because frankly I'm too thick and don't have the mental capacity to employ other strategies to anywhere near the same level of competency as I read about on here - (I do find these absolutely fascinating to read about BTW although they mainly serve to make me jealous).

Spectre - you may have answered this already but in one of the earlier posts somebody asked why you don't put your intended stakes on in one go at the higher price? Especially given the security blanket of NRNB and you being really clear on the horses intended target anyway, what's the benefit of waiting for the price to contract before punting further? If it's to do with bookies/account restrictions, could you spread the stakes across different firms?

[Birds Nest]

I think quite significantly, but no inclination to do it just for the sake of proving we could. Was popular on the BF forum once upon a time, not sure if they still do it.

There are benefits in being able to crash a price, very significant ones. But one for members only i should think.