Doing an 'Naiad'

[Istabraq]

If I was going to do it with one horse, it'd be Column Of Certainty ....

I guess it's just "why Happygolucky"..... although I am on, I know SW is keen too, and plenty of others I see.

Seems an obvious double now....

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I’ve followed you in Spectre as think I have a couple of non-runners in this race and know this one has been getting an increasing following.

I get what you are saying about letting your hair day on one or two. I think my biggest potential single is Gallyhill as like to have a good swing on something at big odds when NRNB. The only thing I don’t get is your suggestion of backing a horse down from 33s to 8s when all the horse is doing is sat in his box. Isn’t it better just to have your big swing at the biggest prices available especially when NRNB. I’ve backed Happy Go Lucky at 20s NRNB but no way will I add anymore at shorter unless with free bets.

[Spectre]

An interesting read. How do you mean this kind of bet can be profitable? Isn’t it the case that the antepost market for handicaps just develops a little later than the graded races so there’s still more juice in them?

Also, if you don’t mind me asking, why did you pick Happygolucky other than his being a novice? What’s made you so sweet on him that you’re willing to make him your biggest win of the week?

The answer to your first question is yes. At the start of the thought process, we're close to the Festival and this is a horse that was 33/1 and has a confirmed target.

The handicaps aren't actually so hard to work out once you know what's going there. He is. It's comfirmed.

So to the rationale. The winner of the Ultima is almost always found in the first 5 or 6 in the betting, and I'd put my house on the fact that he will be given his profile. Then given law of averages say 3 of the top 5 will also fit this profle I have a 50% chance of having a placed horse. My average odds will most likely be somemwhere around 16/1, so the maths there is pretty easy.

The Ultima has a maximum field of 24 runners. History says a horse from the Hennessy (Ladbroke Gold Cup) or a novice will win this. Of the former only Aye Right is likely to fit the bill. Of the latter there are an average of six novices in recent sesons. In price terms usually two or three that fit the profile. Most of th efield you cna completely write off.

Using that math, one Hennessy, and three novices are genuine contenders. He's one of four horses I could possibly shortlist. Of course I don't know what the final entries will be. I have done a thorough trawl of the possibles, and there are very few horses I fear. Currently Aye Right and Drashel Dasher, both of who I think he is better handicapped than. And then there's Gordon. Escaria Ten. Coco Beach. Maybe Farclas. What else? The Irish National is a big draw for his best staying chaser whichever that one is. The first two are far more exposed than a proper handicap plot fot this, and Farclas is more likely for the Plate. In other words I don't think Gordon has anything plotted for this. Willie never does. Hendo and Nicholls have no idea with this race usually. The big trainers lack genuinely well handicapped contenders. They usually do though.

The English trainers to win this race in recent years are Bridgewater, Nick Williams, David Pipe, Colin Tizzard, Alan King, Neil Mulholland, etc. The placed trainers are similar trainers. Just the mould that Kim Bailey fits. In other words a decent unexposed UK staying chaser that jumps and travels. Happygolucky fits the mould, his profile is perfect, he's been targeted here, he has the requisite Cheltenham experience, and his trainer has a really good handle on what's required. Plus his serious rivals have fallen by the wayside. Cloth Cap bypasses the race, Kildisart is injured, Discorama won't get over his setback in time, and the Conditional is either getting his mark blown and heading to the Gold Cup, or having a hard race too close to the Festival this weekend.

I'm happy to debate any horse put forward to rival Happygolucky. It's impossible to put a guartanteed horse up at a big price in handicap before the entries are out, but he's close to as good as it gets, and I'll give it a damned good go.

[Lobos]

Good luck to you Sceptre. No different to a number of us on here who appear to have a personal favourite in amongst our Portfolios which, if things pan out, would pull in the biggest return. Pretty much every year I fall on one which I really fancy and tend to go overboard on deliberately . This year it's Al Boum Photo. Obviously not the best betting strategy but , when they come off, it can be very lucrative.

[Morley Street]

Most interesting thread for some time Spectre and I’m in... strategy has worked for me before and I was kinda trying it with School Boy Hours but why not have 2 darts. As Q says tho it can be high risk as is highly geared

[Spectre]

School Boy Hours was another I considered Morley Street. I like him a lot. But I don't have the trainer saying he runs, or the UK mark.

[Kevloaf]

J

Seems an obvious double now....

Just need the right race... and BAM

[Morley Street]

School Boy Hours was another I considered Morley Street. I like him a lot. But I don't have the trainer saying he runs, or the UK mark.

Agree and only played it NRNB

[Spectre]

Not disputing that.... I was just surprised it had it's own thread I suppose rather than diary section or the Ultima thread.

I thought it worthwhile starting a thread because it's not a strategy I really see people using, so I thought it was worth the debate in its own right Kev.

It's an each to their own thing really. I can only share my own experiences, and perhaps expalain why this horse and not others.

This debate wouldn't happen in the diaries. Or at least not to this extent.

[Spectre]

Agree and only played it NRNB

Yes this..........

[Istabraq]

J

Just need the right race... and BAM

Play both, Coral Cup and Pertemps.
What are they, 400/1 doubles or thereabouts ?

[dannycraigpirates]

So whilst I disagree with the “making or breaking your week with just one horse” strategy (I tried that with uknowwhatimeanharry when he went off fav for the stayers - and we all know what happened there - I have been throwing some loose change in my account on a handful of specials on hills.

Over the last few months, any time my balance isn’t an exact whole pound, I add the pennies onto a special - and have built up quite the pot a couple of bets - most notably being about 15 points on Concertista/honeysuckle/Billaway/ABP to finish top 3 @ 11/1. If it wins, great, if it doesn’t - well those 10p’s I added across the winter won’t really be missed anyways.
I guess something similar could be done with a handicapper from now to the festival possibly....

[Spectre]

So whilst I disagree with the “making or breaking your week with just one horse” strategy

I'm not suggesting anyone does the breaking part of that Danny.

[Nortons who]

Back to the Ultima briefly, I'm still keen on Lieutenant Rocco who jumped really well at Ffos Las and is on the same OR I think as Happygolucky but has a higher RPR. LR isnt mentioned in your list, is that because you don't rate him or because you expect him to be going elswehere ? I have backed TWAR anyway but just interested in whether you had considered him as a potential rival in this or not.

[Spectre]

Nick Mitchell has said he runs in a graded chase. RSA? They could change their mind of course, but that was the last position.