Fat Jockey Day Four Yankee - Captain: Dandrew99

[Kevloaf]

Dandrew99

You have the honour of being Day Four captain..... and given this potential blossoming partnership, I agree it would be foolish of us not to have Kotkijet
as vice-captain for the Friday!



The point of these yankee's, is for us all to back them for (min stakes is fine) so we have a collective yankee to support on Day One! With it being collective yankee, as much engagement as possible is encouraged.




Win only, each way, handicaps, shorties, no-hopers, popular horses, personal fancies, tips from the other yankees, cases made elsewhere, random guesses... all up to you .....Your decision will be final.


Final selection to be put up on Monday 15th March, by 15:00 please.


You are unfortunate in that your deadline is before final decs, however we should have a pretty solid idea and it shouldn't make too much difference

[Dandrew99]

Placeholder for final selections...

[Dandrew99]

Triumph Hurdle

Suggestions:
Zanahiyr

http://www.gaultstats.com/1-30-jcb-triumph-hurdle

Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners going back to First Bout in 1985

Barry Geraghty rode 5 winners

22 mares priced 14/1 and under have run. 4 won, 8 others placed

9 of the last 11 winners last time ran in one of the Spring, Finesse, or Adonis Hurdles

Three winners in 33 years had only one previous race over hurdles in GB or IRE

Five of the last nine finished in the first four in the February Leopardstown G1

11 of the last 16 from the front four in the market

The last 22 winners ran between 18 and 55 days before

Seven of the last eight not outside first two in any UK or IRE hurdle run

Three of the last 15 had their first hurdle run after 10th January

17 of the last 18 to have raced on the Flat, had raced at 1m 4f

4 winners and 3 seconds in the last six renewals were French bred

Race Distance - 2 miles and about a furlong. Started hurdle career between 20^th October and 31st January. Winner (if rated) will be at least 80 on the flat or placed in G1 hurdle. All placed horses (if rated) should be over 70. If ran on the flat was tried at some stage over 1m4f or has already won a G1 hurdle. Won or placed at least G3 last time out. No more than five runs over hurdles. Will have won at least 50% of all hurdle starts. Will be unbeaten in UK or IRE or have run at least three times over hurdles. Last run between 18 and 55 days ago. Irish trained coming to the fore. Either N Henderson or Irish trained, Elliott, Joseph O'Brien or W Mullins are doing well. Difficulty in Closutton. No headgear unless its the first time in NH races. Any price. Mares under 14/1 do well with their 7lb allowance. French Breds to be watched. Winner's sire was a G1 winner.

Previous Winners

Year	Form	Winner	Weight	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Runners	Last race (No of days)
2020	1	Burning Victory	10-7	-	12/1	W Mullins(IRE)	P Townend	13	1st G3 F'house Hdle (20)
2019	1	Pentland Hills	11-0	-	20/1	N Henderson	N de Boinville	14	1st Plumpton Maiden Hdle (18)
2018	22	Farclas	11-0	140	9/1	G Elliott(IRE)	Jack Kennedy	9	2nd G1 Leop Spring Hdle (41)
2017	11111	Defi du Seuil	11-0	155	5/2F	P Hobbs	R Johnson	15	1st G2 Chelt Finesse Hdle (48)
2016	1114	Ivanovich Gorbatov	11-0	142	9/2F	A O'Brien(IRE)	B Geraghty	15	4th G1 Leop Spring Hdle (41)
2015	111	Peace And Co	11-0	155	2/1F	N Henderson	B Geraghty	16	1st G2 Chelt Finesse Hdle (48)
2014	12	Tiger Roll	11-0	-	10/1	G Elliott(IRE)	D Russell	15	2nd G1 Leop Spring Hdle (30)
2013	23111	Our Conor	11-0	150	4/1	D Hughes (IRE)	B Cooper	17	1st G1 Leop Spring Hdle (34)
2012	12123	Countrywide Flame	11-0	140	33/1	J Quinn	D Costello	20	3rd G1 Leop Spring Hdle (33)
2011	1	Zarkandar	11-0	-	13/2	P Nicholls	D Jacob	23	1st G2 Kempton Adonis Hdle (20

[Dandrew99]

County Hurdle

Suggestions
Eclair De Beaufeu
Ganapathi
Thyme White
Cayd Boy

http://www.gaultstats.com/2-10-rando...y-h-cap-hurdle

Dan Skelton has trained three of the last five winners, none of his winners had raced since at least Boxing Day

Irish Trained have won seven of the last eleven, Willie Mullins with five

16 of the last 18 were either novices or second season hurdlers

Since 1991 only two previous course winners have won. Both were second season novices

12 of the last 14 with BHA rating between 132 and 139. But not two of the last four

One h'cap debutant winner since Thumbs Up in '93. Saint Roi in 2020

13 of the last 15 achieved best RPR within their last three runs

Only Arctic Fire this century had finished in the first 5 at a previous Festival

No BF last time out has won since 2013.

Only Arctic Fire of the last 11 won wearing any sort of headgear

All bar Saint Roi of the last seven had been beaten in a Cheltenham Hurdle

Last five winners not seen out since 1st January

Race Distance - 2 miles and abt a furlong. Winner will be aged 5 or 6 yrs, a novice or else placed in Boylesports/Betfair Hurdle/G1. Not finished in first five in previous Festival race. No more than second season over hurdles or else Skelton/Mullins trained. If full handicap, will carry under 11st 1lb unless finished 1^st or 2^nd in a Class 1 Handicap Hurdle. Not more than 1lb out of the handicap. Will have had at least three previous runs this season unless W Mullins. No more than 19 previous runs over hurdles. Will be rated between 134 and 139 unless Skelton/Mullins. No headgear unless Nicholls/Mullins. Either Irish/Nicholls/Skelton trained. Not a previous course winner unless won on Trials Day Not a handicap debutante (yes, unless W Mullins. May already have ran in a top hurdle race this season. Any price. Don't back a conditional who has yet to win at least Class 2 level. Has a best RPR of at least 129. Did I mention W Mullins? Not Saint Roi.

Year	Form	Winner	Age	Weight	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Hdle Runs	Last Race (No of Days)
2020	51	Saint Roi	5	10-13	137	11/2F	W Mullins(IRE)	B Geraghty	2	1st Tramore Maiden Hdle (72)
2019	5692	Ch'tibello	8	11-5	146	12/1	D Skelton	H Skelton	19	2nd Cl2 Aintree H'cap 2m 4f (97)
2018	1023	Mohaayed	6	10-8	139	33/1	D Skelton	B Andrews	9	2nd G1 Kemp Xmas Hdle (81)
2017	-	Arctic Fire	8	11-12	158	20/1	W Mullins(IRE)	P Townend	17	2nd G1 Leop Irish Champion (418)
2016	12	Superb Story	5	10-12	138	8/1	D Skelton	H Skelton	6	2nd G3 Chelt Greatwood (124)
2015	580P	Wicklow Brave	6	11-4	138	25/1	W Mullins(IRE)	P Townend	9	PU G3 Sandown Imperial Cup (6)
2014	141	Lac Fontana	5	10-11	139	11/1	P Nicholls	D Jacob	6	Ist Chelt Cl2 H'cap (48)
2013	31923	Ted Veale	6	10-6	134	10/1	A Martin(IRE)	B Cooper	5	3rd Leop Ladbroke Hdle (48)
2012	41610120	Alderwood	8	11-1	139	20/1	T Mullins(IRE)	AP McCoy	12	15th Leop 15k h'cap hdle(33)
2011	51	Final Approach	6	10-5	139	10/1	W Mullins(IRE)	R Walsh	4	1st Leop Ladbroke Hdle (68)

[Dandrew99]

Albert Bartlett

Suggestions
Stattler
Torygraph

http://www.gaultstats.com/2-50-alber...ett-nov-hurdle

2 of the 16 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class

Only Monkfish of the 16 hadn't run in a Graded hurdle

Seven winners of the G2 late January 2m 5f course trial have run. 3 won, two placed

13 of the last 15 were six or seven years of age

No French Bred winner in last 12

Irish Trained five of the last seven

Seven of the 16 were course winners. Seven others had never been here before

Nine from the last eleven were rated 140+

Minella Indo only winner with less than 3 runs over hurdles

Six from the last eight started hurdling in 2 mile races

None of the last 13 ran in either the Cheltenham or Aintree bumpers

No winning favourite since 2013

Both P Nicholls and G Elliott yet to win it


Race Distance - about 3 miles. Up to 2015 all carried 11-7. Since then, 11-5.

Going 16 years. Winner to be 6 or 7 years old. Has won hurdle race over at least 2m 4f. Irish Trained. If not Irish look at January course form. May not have already run over 3 miles. At least 3 runs over hurdles or Graded place last time out. 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class or ran in Challow Hurdle. p2p winner and hasn't come from the Flat unless W Mullins. Course winner if given the chance. Irish or Eng Bred. Favourite becoming due. Not beaten favourite last time unless placed in a Graded shorter trip. Rated 140+, if rated. Didn't run in Cheltenham or Aintree bumper.

Year	Form	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last race (No of days)
2020	2211	Monkfish	6	152	5/1	WMullins(IRE)	P Townend	1st Thurles Nov Hdle 2m 6f (54)
2019	32	Minella Indo	6	-	50/1	H de Bromhead(IRE)	R Blackmore	1st G3 Clonmel Nov Hdle (28)
2018	3113	Kilbricken Storm	7	143	33/1	C Tizzard	H Cobden	3rd G1 Newbury Challow Hdle 2m 5f (77)
2017	611141	Penhill	6	143	16/1	W Mullins(IRE)	P Townend	1st G2 Limerick Nov Hdle (78)
2016	1111	Unowhatimeanharry	8	152	11/1	H Fry	N Fehily	1st Exeter Pertemps H'cap Hdle (33)
2015	1F12	Martello Tower	7	140	14/1	M Mullins(IRE)	A Heskin	2nd G2 Leop Nov Hdle 2m 4f (47)
2014	1253	Very Wood	5	137	33/1	N Meade(IRE)	P Carberry	G2 Naas Nov Hdle 2m 4f (68)
2013	1111	At Fishers Cross	6	152	11/8F	R Curtis	AP McCoy	1st G2 Chelt Classic Hdle 2m 4f (48)
2012	2111	Brindisi Breeze	6	148	7/1	L Russell	C Gillies	1st Hayd. Prestige Nov Hdle (27)
2011	111	Bobs Worth	6	150	15/8F	N Henderson	B Geraghty	1st Chelt Classic Nov 2m4f (48)

[Dandrew99]

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Suggestions
Al Boum Photo
A Plus Tard
Champ

http://www.gaultstats.com/3-30-cheltenham-gold-cup

No winner was beaten favourite last time out

No winner ran that season on officially heavy ground

None aged 10 years or over, including four favourites

Only one first time winner, having been beaten in it before

No winner without a chase run that season

Only Native River 2018 wore any sort of headgear

Only two had previously raced over further than the GC trip

Only two with more than 12 previous chase starts

Only two failed to finish 1st or 2nd last time out

All had already won a G1 chase

All sent chasing immediately after novice hurdle campaign

None had more than 20 previous chase runs

No horse ever placed in 3 or 4 Festival G1s to then first one

Since Arkle only Best Mate has won three. Both started third win at odds on .

12 of the last 14 were rated 166+ before their win

12 of last 13 not more than three chase runs that season

No King George/GC double since 2011

No trainer has ever won Ch Hurdle, QM, and GC in the same year

Race Distance - 3 miles and abt two and a half furlongs. Will be aged between 7 and 9. Doesn't need to have run in the Newbury Hennessy, King George or Lexus Chases. The Denman Chase is currently the bets 'prep' race. Will have finished placed at a previous Festival or in a G1 this season or will be at least a course winner. Must have run at previous Festival unless a novice. No worse than 2nd last time out . Has not ran on officially heavy ground this season. At least 31 days off before coming here. No more than three previous runs this season. Has won this season or won a G1 Chase at the 2019 Festival. Unlikely to have been beaten in a previous Gold Cup. Has had between 5 and 12 times runs over fences. Is a previous Grade 1 Chase winner or placed in this before. Not blinkered. Something 16/1 or bigger to be placed. Winner BHA rated 166+. Time to be about 6 mins 40. Not Pipe trained. Last prep run was over 3 miles or at Tramore. Hasn't raced over more than the GC trip unless won a Welsh National. Not F, U, PU this season. Second season chasers outperform their numbers. Not beaten favourite last time out. Not easy to win three of these in a row. But remember the 'Willie Mullins doesn't give a monkeys about stats' stat.

Year	Form	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Runners	Last Race (No of days)
2020	1	Al Boum Photo	8	175	100/30F	W Mullins(IRE)	P Townend	16	1st G3 Tramore Ch 2m 5f (72)
2019	1	Al Boum Photo	7	164	12/1	W Mullins(IRE)	P Townend	16	1st Lstd Tramore Ch 2m 5f (73)
2018	1	Native River	8	166	5/1	C Tizzard	R Johnson	15	1st Newbury G2 Denman Ch (34)
2017	3211	Sizing John	7	167	7/1	J Harrington(IRE)	R Power	13	1st G1 Leop Irish Gold Cup (33)
2016	11F1	Don Cossack	9	175	9/4F	G Elliott(IRE)	B Cooper	9	1st G2 Thurles Kinloch Brae Ch 2m 4f (64)
2015	111	Coneygree	8	166	7/1	M Bradstock	N de Boinville	16	1st G2 Newbury Denman Ch (34)
2014	876	Lord Windermere	8	152	20/1	J Culloty(IRE)	D Russell	13	6th Leop Irish Gold Cup (33)
2013	1	Bobs Worth	8	171	11/4F	N Henderson	B Geraghty	9	1st Newbury Hennessey H'cap Ch (104)
2012	731	Synchronised	9	179	8/1	JJ O'Neill	AP McCoy	14	1st G1 Leop Lexus Ch (79)
2011	31	Long Run	6	179	7/2F	N Henderson	Mr S Waley-Cohen	13	1st G1 Kempton King George (62)

[Dandrew99]

Foxhunters Chase

Suggestions
Billaway

http://www.gaultstats.com/4-10-open-...s-steeplechase

The last six winners were aged 10 or 11.

Since 2004, two of the three winners aged 11 went off as SP favourite.

Since 2005 only Pacha Du Polder won from the ex handicappers rated 140+ at peak

Five of the six winners aged over 10 yrs old were already course winners

Nine of the last eleven BHA rated 134.

11 of the last 13 finished in the first three last time.

Six of the last seven different winners had run in at least 12 chases under rules

This century only four jockeys have won this who would normally claim the full 7lbs

No first-time winner since 2005 had already won over the trip

Six of the last 11 finished in the first five in the previous years race

Both Jamie Codd and Patrick Mullins have yet to win this

Race Distance - 3 miles and abt two and a half furlongs. The Gold Cup for Amateurs. All carry 12 stone. Mares get 7lb allowance. Love this race, going back to the great Spartan Missile in 1979.


10 yrs or older. If 11 plus, strong in the market. Won't be 8 or less unless strongly fancied. Has not won over 3 miles 2 and 1/2 furlongs unless this race. Has won on a UK or IRE NH Course. May not have won last time but likely to have finished in the first three. If given the opportunity, has previously won a hunter chase. Has run at least in 12 chases under rules or unbeaten in hunter chases. If given the opportunity, has a previous course win or Festival/Graded placed form. Last run between 12 and 53 days ago. Likely to be professionally trained. Any price. Don't worry if selection attempts to make all. Down Royal/Naas/Raymond Smith Chase form has been overlooked in the past however the Irish trained favourite can be very much overbet. No horse has won this three times. Not blinkered. Be careful of previous 'class acts' from the handicap ranks. Check the first five home in last years race. Winning jockey does not normally claim 7lb. Usually female.

Year	Form	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last race (No of days)
2020	U1U171P	It Came To Pass	10	126	66/1	E O'Sullivan(IRE)	Miss M O'Sullivan	PU Kilfealce p2p (47)
2019	11211	Hazel Hill	11	139	7/2F	P Rowley	Mr A Edwards	1st Warwick Hunter Ch (53)
2018	3	Pachu du Polder	11	138	25/1	P Nicholls	Miss Harriet Tucker	3rd Donc Hunter Ch (24)
2017	3341	Pacha du Polder	10	138	16/1	P Nicholls	Miss B Frost	1st Bangor Hunter Ch (35)
2016	17	On The Fringe	11	147	13/8F	E Bolger(IRE)	Ms N Carberry	7th Leop Inn Hunter Ch (41)
2015	1122	On The Fringe	10	141	6/1	E Bolger(IRE)	Ms N Carberry	2nd Leop Inn Hunter Ch (33)
2014	6213	Tammys Hill	9	134	15/2	L Lennon(IRE)	Mr JJ Smyth	3rd F'house Hunter Ch 2m 5f (20)
2013	1221	Salsify	8	140	2/1F	R Sweeney(IRE)	Mr C Sweeney	1st Leop Inn Hunter Ch (34)
2012	1P1	Salsify	7	134	7/1	R Sweeney(IRE)	Mr C Sweeney	1st Leop Inn Hunter Ch (33)
2011	21	Zemsky	8	125	33/1	I Ferguson(IRE)	Mr D O'Connor	1st M'burgh Hunter Ch (30)

[Dandrew99]

Mares Chase

Suggestions
Elimay

http://www.gaultstats.com/4-50-paddypowers-mares-chase

[Dandrew99]

Martin Pipe

Suggestions
Wide Receiver
Gentleman De Mee
Eskylane
Column Of Fire
Fire Attack

http://www.gaultstats.com/5-30-martin-pipe-h-cap-hurdle

Gigginstown have run 12 in this. Four won, five were placed and Column Of Fire....

W Mullins 3 winners (all novices), P Nicholls and G Elliott 2 winners each. All three trainers have also had at least three other runners placed.

Apart from the very first running, David Pipe no placed finishers.

The last three winning jockeys had already ridden over 40 winners.

Nine winners were second-season hurdlers, the other three were novices.

All bar Early Doors of the last ten ran within the last 52 days

Only Early Doors of the six Irish trained winners had previously run in a handicap. This one.

All 6 UK trained winners had run in at least three handicaps.

10 of the 12 had previously ran in a Graded hurdle.

11 of the 12 had won a hurdle of at least 11 runners

10 of the 12 aged 5 or 6 yrs

Nine of the last ten finished in the first three on their previous run.

No BF last time has won


Race Distance - 2 miles and abt four and a half furlongs. It's a 0-145 handicap. Going 12 years. The Pipes might win this someday, but they need to enter a few. In past years their plot horse tends to get too short for a 24 runner handicap hurdle (and will be all the rage the week before). Winner has won at Class 3 level hurdle or placed at least at Listed level. Either won last time or Graded place. Winning jockey has already ridden 30+ winners. Not beaten favourite last time. Usually a compressed handicap, ratings from about 135 to 145. Aged 5 and 6 yrs or top weight. Not necessary to have run up a sequence of wins. No more than 11 previous hurdle runs. Out within the last 50 days or in a G1. Has won a hurdle of at least 11 runners or front runs. Gigginstown, G Elliott, J O'Brien, P Nicholls a keen interest. Willie Mullins less so without Gigginstown. If Irish trained, this will be its first handicap unless ran in this before. Irish novices respected. Carrys 11st 1lb or more. Rarely a frontrunner but has run over further this season. First three last time out.


In 2015 the 3lb allowance for riders riding for their own stable and the 7lb allowance for those who have not ridden a winner have been removed from race conditions. Done to deter trainers 'gambling with inexperience'. BHA wants to promote booking the best conditionals.

ear	Form	Winner	Age	Weight	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Race (No of days)
2020	52231	Indefatigable	7	11-9	145	25/1	P Webber	R Dingle	1st Lstd Warwick Lstd M Hurdle 2m 5f (34)
2019	52	Early Doors	6	11-10	145	5/1	J O'Brien(IRE)	J O'Neill jnr	2nd G1 Leop G1 3m (81)
2018	32161	Blow By Blow	7	11-10	144	11/1	G Elliott(IRE)	D Meyler	1st G3 Thurles Nov (23)
2017	23213	Champagne Classic	6	11-3	138	12/1	G Elliott(IRE)	JJ Slevin	3rd G3 Thurles Nov (22)
2016	235	Ibis du Rheu	5	11-7	139	14/1	P Nicholls	J Sherwood	5th G3 Sandown H'cap 3m (41)
2015	123	Killultagh Vic	6	11-1	135	7/1	W Mullins(IRE)	L Dempsey	3rd G2 Leop Nov. (47)
2014	211	Don Poli	5	11-5	143	12/1	W Mullins (IRE)	M Fogarty (3)	1st G3 Clonmel Nov 3m (22)
2013	4251	Salubrious	6	11-5	141	16/1	P Nicholls	H Derham (3)	1st Cl3 M'burgh H'cap (40)
2012	135P1	Attaglance	6	11-3	139	20/1	M Jefferson	H Haynes (3)	1st CL3 Market Rasen H'cap 2m 2f (26)
2011	1	Sir Des Champs	5	11-3	134	9/2F	W Mullins(IRE)	E Mullins (3)	1st Rated Navan Hurdle 2m (52)

[Kevloaf]

I've deleted my post 2 to move your placeholder up, might end up deleting this as well.... as I feel it'll mess with your OCD if I post before you get Martin Pipe written up ....what's the plan!

[Dandrew99]

I've deleted my post 2 to move your placeholder up, might end up deleting this as well.... as I feel it'll mess with your OCD if I post before you get Martin Pipe written up ....what's the plan!

All good, I got all my placeholders in there now plus you didn't have any spelling mistakes so my OCD is perfectly satisfied!

Thought it would be good to have links for each race and any links to cases that anyone makes, helps get through the waffle

[Kevloaf]

Nice. The organisation and looming presence of Kotkijet has me giddy.

I expect the Friday to be the best day you've ever had

[Dandrew99]

I've just added the Gaultstats information for each of the races on the Friday.

Just looking at the SPs for each of the winners, the average starting price for each race is as follows:

Race	Average SP of Winner
Triumph Hurdle	11.35
County Hurdle	16.45
Albert Bartlett	18.225
Gold Cup	8.083
Foxhunters	17.76
Mares Chase	N/A
Martin Pipe	13.65

This leads me to think that the races that are worth targetting for this are the Triumph (never in doubt anyway seeing as we have the Juvenile master), the County, the Gold Cup and the Martin Pipe. I'm kind of happy with that anyway. Of the races that excludes:

Albert Bartlett

I think I'm happy to exclude this for now, pending the race at Clonmel which Saxon Warrior has highlighted in his excellent Irish Race planning thread. It looks an absolute mess at the minute, and unless somebody surprises me I can't see anyone putting forward a confident case for anyone. Probably need to reevaluate this one though.

Foxhunters

No idea of if the amateur jockeys are going to be allowed, I don't really follow the PTP scene at all either, and as much as I have a few fancies myself for this I think it's definitely a race worth avoiding unless anyone makes a particularly strong case.

Mares Chase

Unless Benie gets confirmed as going to the Hurdle prior to the deadline, I'd be happy to exclude this race. No stats or trend to go on, Benie will rightfully go off fav if she does go here but it's all guesswork at the minute. No confirmation that Benie retains her ability, especially over fences, so it would really be a punt unless there is something at a particularly interesting price.

Not entirely sure what sort of Yankee I'd like in here just yet, so does anyone have any suggestions or thoughts on the above?

[Saxon Warrior]

This is great work Dandrew99

The two handicap hurdles are definitely in any yankee that I would do on a Festival Friday, and there are some pretty strong stats to compare to the entries when they come out in 12 days.

Great start to your captaincy.

[Middle_Of_March]

Dandrew99 Superb stuff already