Mares Hurdle 2020

[Hurricane fly]

Did it with Annie Power though.
She subbed for Faugheen as they knew she could win the champion.
Without Paisley Park in the stayers, you'd be fairly confident BDD could win that.
And let four or five other Mullins mares follow Honeysuckle around.

Ricci also had VVM x2 and Limini in those occasions though, very different to this year

[Istabraq]

Annie Power ran in a Stayers and a Mares before she deputised for Faugheen in winning the Champion, completely different animal...

[Quevega]

Yeah,
it is very different in relation to Ricci.
although I didn't know he had a preference for the Mares over the stayers.

With regards Mullins, it's not much different at all.
He has Laurina, last years mares novice winner, and second.
And the 2nd and third from the mares last year.
and other promising horses like elfile etc.

so not really different at all.

[Quevega]

Annie Power ran in a Stayers and a Mares before she deputised for Faugheen in winning the Champion, completely different animal...

It's not about the animal.
It's about taking opportunities as they arise and slotting your horses into winnable races where you can.

[archie]

Just a reminder that it was Honeysuckle that missed the Festival last season.

[Quevega]

Thanks archie.
That finishes that chat then.

[archie]

If I can help somebody....

[delsie777]

Yeah,
it is very different in relation to Ricci.
although I didn't know he had a preference for the Mares over the stayers.

With regards Mullins, it's not much different at all.
He has Laurina, last years mares novice winner, and second.
And the 2nd and third from the mares last year.
and other promising horses like elfile etc.

so not really different at all.

Laurina's going chasing isn't she? Willie loves the fact he dominates these Mares races - that's why your namesake never went to the Stayers,Q. Same with the Novice - no one gave him a chance of winning that and he ends up with the 1-2 and 3 of the first 6 at massive prices. For me, that makes bets like Honeysuckle and Gypsy Island very skinny at this stage. Better off speculating on big price Mullins horses - particularly in the Mares Novice. I'd rather back Dolcita, Lamarkise, Concertista and Princess Vega eachway at big prices than taking 6 or 7/1 about GI. Likewise, Elfile is still 5 times the price of Honeysuckle in this and could very easily improve to be competitive. That's an eachway bet against a solid fav in BBD.

[Quevega]

Not being pedantic, but Princess Vega is a major doubt (just in case you've backed or was gunna)

Yep.
I'm pretty much aware of everything you've said Delsie. I'm playing devils advocate a bit as the only bets I've had for the mares are
Elfile 25-1 ew
Eglantine du seuil 25-1 ew.

And have also backed
Gypsy Island at 25-1 - mares novice
with Laurina backed for arkle at 14-1 and JLT 12-1

If anyone cares to go back a few pages through this fascinating hypothetical chat.
They might (probably not) understand my POV.

I am a massive fan of BDD and have always maintained this would be her season target. But am also a big fan of the potential in Honeysuckle, but at the current prices I don't see a bet on either.
But at some stage will weigh in one way or the other.

Will be slightly annoying if one falls by the wayside before I get chance to bet (but hey ho)

[Lobos]

In fact when NRNB comes along.
It's almost maximum bet time on BDD for the stayers, just in case.

Think the 10/1 now is hugely tempting.

[Quevega]

Nearly put it in a double with Honeysuckle at 5-1 mares this afternoon. With W Hill.
But I keep doing these little doubles and know full well, that come March they'll nearly all be dead.

[Kevloaf]

You did back a maiden winner at 8-1 at the weekend though
Now I like the horse. He looked very useful
But why would he be favourite ?
We’ve not seen a Mullins hurdler yet

I backed that same maiden winner at 16s and 14s too - so it was more around a position at those odds will average out double figures.

...but ultimately I am not incredibly confident he'll go off fav... recency bias and backing with winnings during a Saturday have an impact.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, so let's hope that bad bet ends up lucky.


and I do think Any Race is slightly different, as it covers all targets, wheras we can't be certain where Honeysuckle goes, albeit only a tiny niggle.

[Kevloaf]

In fact when NRNB comes along.
It's almost maximum bet time on BDD for the stayers, just in case.

Nod nod nod.

The exact kind of bet I love.


Un De Sceaux in the QMCC NRNB takes up a portion of my stake every single year

[Quevega]

I backed that same maiden winner at 16s and 14s too - so it was more around a position at those odds will average out double figures.

...but ultimately I am not incredibly confident he'll go off fav... recency bias and backing with winnings during a Saturday have an impact.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, so let's hope that bad bet ends up lucky.


and I do think Any Race is slightly different, as it covers all targets, whereas we can't be certain where Honeysuckle goes, albeit only a tiny niggle.

Didn't think it was a bad bet - per say
But I think you're right that it needs a few things to drop for it to really work out.

[Kevloaf]

Just a reminder that it was Honeysuckle that missed the Festival last season.

Thanks archie.
That finishes that chat then.

and it's just clicked that you had an absolutely off the scale number of 'points' on her last year....

Why don't you change your name to Honeysuckle....you' clearly don't love Quevega as much as you make out