Mares Hurdle 2020

[Hurricane fly]

It’s the one advantage to having two market leaders in the race.
Unless one is ruled out then they will never get too short pre NRNB

[billymag]

Have I mentioned that 5/1 is a terrible price...... still no takers on the exchange yet, Ive upped the price to 5.7 if anyone wants it

[Quevega]

Any bet at single figures is incredible risky now.

The chance of injury compared to the amount a horse "could" shorten between now and when NRNB prices come out isn't big enough to make anything a solid bet at single figures for a specific target.



To take a horse at single figures NOW, (between 5-1 and 9/1) I'd want to be incredibly confident they'd be going off fav, and I'd very much like to think they'd be 6/4 at best.


I don't think Honeysuckle or Benie Des Dieux fit the bill as good bets now in a single, for the reasons above.

You did back a maiden winner at 8-1 at the weekend though
Now I like the horse. He looked very useful
But why would he be favourite ?
We’ve not seen a Mullins hurdler yet

[Quevega]

To expand,
I know you backed any race, but don't see how much difference that makes.
There will be many more pieces of evidence in the novice hurdle division before settle down.
All the UK novices have yet to run and Willies, and Jessica's etc.
You're relying on Andy Dufresne mopping up in all his races till March (or NRNB) and confirming a target race before NRNB kicks in.

If I remember rightly - Klassical Dream was available NrNB at or around 9-1 in the couple of weeks before the race.

Whereas in this particular race, the pool is smaller, and it would only take something to happen to BDD, or her be aimed elsewhere and Honeysuckle would be clear favourite. She is ahead of her novice classmates right now and already as good as last years winner and runner up IMO. It's just Willies novices that may improve to challenge her as the season moves on.

[Scooby91]

Have I mentioned that 5/1 is a terrible price...... still no takers on the exchange yet, Ive upped the price to 5.7 if anyone wants it

9.0 (just over 15/2 with commission) and I'll have a decent punt.

It's almost christmas after all.

[billymag]

To expand,
I know you backed any race, but don't see how much difference that makes.
There will be many more pieces of evidence in the novice hurdle division before settle down.
All the UK novices have yet to run and Willies, and Jessica's etc.
You're relying on Andy Dufresne mopping up in all his races till March (or NRNB) and confirming a target race before NRNB kicks in.

If I remember rightly - Klassical Dream was available NrNB at or around 9-1 in the couple of weeks before the race.

Whereas in this particular race, the pool is smaller, and it would only take something to happen to BDD, or her be aimed elsewhere and Honeysuckle would be clear favourite. She is ahead of her novice classmates right now and already as good as last years winner and runner up IMO. It's just Willies novices that may improve to challenge her as the season moves on.

I think we will have to disagree that shes already as good as last years winner, she could be better but shes yet to show it. Without repeating myself as i realise this is taking up a lot of the thread (its meant to generate a bit of healthy debate though), the price to me is like a nrnb price that seems how she's priced up (like a lot of horses in the antepost lists), there doesnt seem to be any contingency for the likelihood of her getting injured or losing form or running in a different race. As a potential layer at that price theres a comfort in knowing that Ive got a few ways of winning my cash before she even has to jump a hurdle on her big day.

[billymag]

9.0 (just over 15/2 with commission) and I'll have a decent punt.

It's almost christmas after all.

Theres always the 5.7 there for you mate

[jack1092]

Theres always the 5.7 there for you mate

Why would anyone take 5.7

[Scooby91]

Theres always the 5.7 there for you mate

That's less than 9/2. (With commission) hardly sticking your neck out, offering under the odds.

Grow some balls 9.0

[Quevega]

I think we will have to disagree that shes already as good as last years winner, she could be better but shes yet to show it. Without repeating myself as i realise this is taking up a lot of the thread (its meant to generate a bit of healthy debate though), the price to me is like a nrnb price that seems how she's priced up (like a lot of horses in the antepost lists), there doesnt seem to be any contingency for the likelihood of her getting injured or losing form or running in a different race. As a potential layer at that price theres a comfort in knowing that Ive got a few ways of winning my cash before she even has to jump a hurdle on her big day.

With regards the form. That's up to the indivuduals judgement so there will be different opinions for sure.
The handicapper has them within a couple of pounds.
I think Roksana has run to her mark a couple of times now and was all out to do so.
Honeysuckle has been unextended and ran to a similar level (rating wise, not class, granted)

The rest I agree with really, it's just that there are dozens that are priced similarly. And the risks you mention apply to most horses.
But in this case it wouldn't take much for backers to be sat pretty. So I see that side too.

[Quevega]

And I remember having the same sort of discussions regarding BDD price last season. When Apples Jade was definitely going for the mares.
And look what happened there.

[billymag]

5.8 anyone final offer!

[Lobos]

5.8 anyone final offer!

Love to but already got a ton on at 7's.....that's me done !

[Lobos]

And I remember having the same sort of discussions regarding BDD price last season. When Apples Jade was definitely going for the mares.
And look what happened there.

Agree. There is no certainty that Benie will come here. She is pretty short with some for the Stayers.

[Humble Pie]

Love to but already got a ton on at 7's.....that's me done !

Personally will be amazed if BDD goes Stayers but we’ve ALL been amazed over the years at one time or another.

Both win me four figures from primarily doubles and 2 single bets @6/1 both
BDD wins me double Honeysuckle
Head and heart says BDD
You have your opinion which I don’t agree with but won’t be too upset providing one of them wins .

Long way to go , fingers crossed they both get there fit and we see a great race