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6th/7th/8th - The perfect results for your ante post positions are........

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  • #46
    Originally posted by charlie View Post
    With a massive weekend of action at Leopardstown, plus Sandown and Wetherby, and Fairyhouse on Monday, what does the ideal weekend look like for your ante post Cheltenham positions? (not what you are backing this weekend, just in terms of influencing ante post bets)
    • Who do you want to win?
    • Who do you think will win?
    • Which races are key to your book, and why?
    • Who do you want to see disappoint?
    • What prices are you buzzing about?
    • What do you want trainers to say post-race re targets?
    I have done the following races (in case people want to just copy and paste)

    Saturday - Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
    Saturday - Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
    Saturday - Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
    Saturday - Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
    Saturday - Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
    Saturday - Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
    Saturday - Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

    Sunday - Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

    Sunday - Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
    Sunday - Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
    Sunday - Irish Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1)

    Monday - Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)



    SATURDAY 6TH

    Leopardstown - Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

    BO (16/1) and BMG (6/1) are decent Ballymore winners for me so I don't really want to see Gaillard Du Mesnil win like a lot of people think he will. I have just added Ashdale Bob for the AB, so I'd like to see him win the race, and for Fakeira to run with credit.

    Leopardstown - Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
    I'd love to see Min beat CPS, but I think the best I can hope for is Min pushing CPS close. I want a QMCC market shake up and I have Min at 55's for the QMCC, so I'd love a dirty shake up and definitely for the HDB to confirm PTKO to go QMCC off the back of something disappointing.

    Leopardstown - Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
    Energumene is in quite a few doubles @ 16/1 for the Arkle, so I'd like to see him run well, but Unexpected @ 22/1 EW would be a great result for me too. Energumene to win and Unexcepted a very close second would be ideal. I'd like targets clearly defined post race but its Willie so that simply wont happen, but hopefully definitive performances do the confirming for me.

    Leopardstown - Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
    Maybe not a popular view, but I want to see Honeysuckle beat, and I want Saldier to do the beating. Saldier is my biggest CH winner so that's my favoured result, but I also have Saint Roi at 20/1 so were he to win I'd be happy with that. Covered Honey @ 20/1 to win both ICH & CH so if she does it no harm no foul, I just hope she doesn't.

    Wetherby - Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
    I was gutted Itchy Feet didn't get a chance to take on PP at Cheltenham last week as I have him @ 245's for the stayers. I'd love him to piss up and for Olly Murphy to declare the stayers his target. I'd love an impressive win.

    Wetherby - Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
    I have TBB @ 33/1 for the RSA and its a bet I have all but put a line through. To enter the frame as a real player in the RSA he needs to jump well and win this really convincingly, anything less and I'll add him to my dead bets column.

    Sandown - Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
    Really important race for my ante post positions. I want Shan Blue in the Marsh as he's in the book @ 16/1 EW so if he wins I'll be happy. Have DDC @ 20/1 in quite a few bets so the perfect outcome is she wins, and Hendo says the Mares Chase is the aim. I'd love DDC and Shan Blue to battle it out, little lost in defeat on either side.
    Half time. A mixed day. 2 great results, 1 poor result, 2 meh results and some cancelled races:

    Leopardstown - Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
    I didn't want Gaillard Du Mesnil to win and he won well. He's a threat to BO and BMG which I didn't want, and Ashdale Bob disappointed with a view to the AB, so not a good start!

    Leopardstown - Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
    CPS won as expected. I put 0.5pts on Min in the hope he might upset things but didn't. No real bets in this race yet, but might wade into CPS at EVS. We'll see. Mostly a watching race.

    Leopardstown - Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
    Energumene is in quite a few doubles @ 16/1 for the Arkle so that was mustard. Unexpected a let down, but delighted with Blackbow. Overall very happy

    Leopardstown - Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
    Covered Honey @ 20/1 to win both ICH & CH so whilst very disappointed with Saldier, I'm with her now at a price, thank you very much Lobos. Very happy to be proven wrong, and my 3pts on Concertista (not to mention her placing at 7/4) look even stronger, so happy days.

    Wetherby - Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
    CANCELLED

    Wetherby - Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
    CANCELLED

    Sandown - Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
    Complete let down. I wanted Shan Blue to win well and DDC to run with credit, neither happened. Gutting result.

    Comment


    • #47
      I'm trying to think of a better single days racing than today. I certainly cannot think of one outside the Cheltenham festival since i've been into racing.
      I've had better days in terms of winnings personally, but in terms of condensed pure quality of racing,

      Gaillard Du Mesnil getting the meeting off to a flyer
      Chacun Pour Soi laughing at his rivals in the Dublin Chase
      Energumene bolting up in the Irish Arkle
      Honeysuckle silencing any remaining doubters (me included) and kicking the rest of the field aside
      Kilcruit producing arguably one of the best ever bumper performances

      Add in 2 handicaps which had 2 winners get up after the last.

      Just incredible

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by jono View Post
        I'm trying to think of a better single days racing than today. I certainly cannot think of one outside the Cheltenham festival since i've been into racing.
        I've had better days in terms of winnings personally, but in terms of condensed pure quality of racing,

        Gaillard Du Mesnil getting the meeting off to a flyer
        Chacun Pour Soi laughing at his rivals in the Dublin Chase
        Energumene bolting up in the Irish Arkle
        Honeysuckle silencing any remaining doubters (me included) and kicking the rest of the field aside
        Kilcruit producing arguably one of the best ever bumper performances

        Add in 2 handicaps which had 2 winners get up after the last.

        Just incredible
        Agree. It was a truly outstanding days racing.

        Comment


        • #49
          Yes those 5 plus Simon Torrens claiming 5lbs to win both of the handicaps for JP. Someone brighter than me could have gone through the card today. Well done Big Chang!
          Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

          Comment


          • #50
            Happy with how things panned out today at Leopardstown, some big performances from forum favourites and no real shocks. The only disappointment was the potential injury to Min who is one of my main antepost bets. I’m glad he was pulled up straight away but given the festival is only 5 weeks away if it’s anything other than a very minor injury he will probably miss the festival.

            The 16/1 for Honey in the Churdle now looks massive, should have covered it, I think she was 10/1 NRNB when Paddy Powers first went?? I had 3 free bets on Honey at 22/1 to win ICH and CH so not too far behind.

            Also had Kilcruit at 20/1 to win today and Champ Bumper and Galliard at 16/1 to win today and Ballymore. Lost on Ashtown Bob, Abracadabras, Saint Roi, Chemical Energy, Ramielles and Franco de Port so probably gained little if anything financially today.

            Comment


            • #51
              Nearly full time:

              Leopardstown - Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
              French Aseel not being declared pretty much made this a non event for me. I did 0.5pt Youmdor double which went tits up. Quilixios was very good without going beyond that. Happy with my ante post positions here.

              Leopardstown - Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
              Was confident Appreciate It would win, but mainly wanted to see Ballyadam run with credit - I was very happy with his run in behind.

              Leopardstown - Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
              I wanted a market shake up and Monkfish laughed at me! What a horse, genuine wow factor. Very happy with AF all things considered. I hope he built some confidence today and enters the Marsh frame.

              Leopardstown - Irish Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1)
              Perfect outcome. I wanted Melon in the Ryanair which is exactly where I think he will end up after that. I wanted Kemboy back over hurdles for the stayers and Willie basically said that's a big possibility, so my 250/1 slips rides for now which is great!!

              All in all quite a good day, but will take a bashing on the RSA as I can't see any of mine getting near Monkfish.

              Really looking forward to Royal Kahala tomorrow.
              Last edited by charlie; 7 February 2021, 09:10 PM.

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by charlie View Post
                Nearly full time:

                Leopardstown - Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
                French Aseel not being declared pretty much made this a non event for me. I did 0.5pt Youmdor double which went tits up. Quilixios was very good without going beyond that. Happy with my ante post positions here.

                Leopardstown - Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
                Was confident Appreciate It would win, but mainly wanted to see Ballyadam run with credit - I was very happy with his run in behind.

                Leopardstown - Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
                I wanted a market shake up and Monkfish laughed at me! What a horse, genuine wow factor. Very happy with AF all things considered. I hope he built some confidence today and enters the Marsh frame.

                Leopardstown - Irish Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1)
                I wanted Melon in the Ryanair which is exactly where I think he will end up after that. I wanted Kemboy back over hurdles for the stayers which is not highly highly unlikely I think.

                All in all quite a good day, but will take a bashing on the RSA as I can't see any of mine getting near Monkfish.

                Really looking forward to Royal Kahala tomorrow.
                That run beating Hook Up looks to have worked out pretty well
                Long bitcoin, long gold, long silver, long g/s opening day Cheltenham Festival

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by taylorch1990 View Post
                  Saturday - Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
                  Gallaird Du Mesnil to beat Cape Gentleman with the pair sprinting clear of the rear after the last. There 2 I've got covered for the Ballymore, and haven't backed any of the other for anything apart from Atattler being on a couple of place request a bets.

                  Saturday - Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
                  Same as last year will do me Chacun pulling away from
                  Min could do with Fakir showing a lot more as backed him a while ago for the Ryanair.

                  Saturday - Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
                  Could do with Captain Guinness reversing form with Energumene, and Felix Desjy not running like a maniac.

                  Saturday - Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
                  Abacadabras beating Saldier with Honeysuckle staying on for third.

                  Saturday - Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
                  Nothing backed that's running in this.

                  Saturday - Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
                  The Big Breakaway winning and jumping much better than last time.

                  Saturday - Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
                  Cashed out my Shan Blue RSA bets so no runners backed for cheltenham.

                  Sunday - Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
                  Quilixios winning well.


                  Sunday - Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
                  Ballyadam getting a lot closer to AI if not beating him and Magic Tricks running a better race than last time (though I've pretty much written him off)


                  Sunday - Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
                  Monkfish winning well, if Asterion Forlonge runs then him getting round and jumping straight.


                  Sunday - Irish Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1)
                  Minella Indo winning.

                  Monday - Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)
                  Delvino reversing form with Royal Kahala (seems unlikely)
                  Day 1 started perfectly with Gaillard Du Mesnil and Chacun but Honeysuckle was a terrible result for me. Her performance was fantastic and something I didn't think she was capable of, I haven't got her covered in the Champion Hurdle at all, and it'll probably stay that way until the day now. Managed to cash most of my Mares hurdle bets for profit at least. Abacadbras at least ran a much better race and I feel like the Champion Hurdle will suit with Aspire Tower going off then Honeysuckle picking up I'd expect him Sharjah and Epatante to be the three to chase down Honeysuckle and possibly reel her in if they go too hard up front.

                  Also haven't got a penny on Energumene and again won't cover him until the day now, thought Captain Guinness may have put it to him but a fall before Cheltenham isn't ideal and he's now as big a price as I backed him early in the season.

                  Day 2 again started perfectly Quilixios was impressive and I think the Triumph will suit him. Zanahiyr is probably the classier horse but I think Quilixios might out grind him up the hill in the triumph. Appreciate It looks rock solid now but do think he'd be better in the Ballymore only way he gets beat is if the supreme turns into a sprint but I'd expect him to go from the front and burn the finish out of the rest. Monkfish was the most impressive he's been and again he looks as solid as anything going to Cheltenham.

                  Minella Indo was bitterly disappointing my main fancy for the Gold Cup and there were no excuses for today. Jumped poorly and as if the fall had affected his confidence, hard to see him winning the Gold Cup now. Kemboy winning was a boost to A Plus Tard who is another I haven't covered, but I think ill have to add him now. Overall was a great weekends racing with some truly outstanding performances. Really got my excitement going for the festival.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    It wasn’t ‘perfect’ but it was fucking good. 4 days of similar results in March and there wouldn’t be too many unhappy on here I’d imagine. Just a thoroughly enjoyable 2 days as well, had a bit of everything

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