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6th/7th/8th - The perfect results for your ante post positions are........
I want to see Ballyadam run well and either win or push AI close, I have decent bets on both at this point with how it's all panned out, but more than anything I think the Supreme needs it.
Min to run well, but not well enough to divert from the Ryanair.
I'm a bit concerned about the soft ground and whether some hard races over the weekend could take their toll ahead of Cheltenham. The competetive nature of the entries suggests to me that we could see quite a few hard fought races, maybe more so. than previously.
As many have commented on here before, its not all about Cheltenham and the DRF rightly has its own prestige and many Irish owners, trainers and the general public will be expecting high class performances and winners.
So taking the above into account, our primary focus in this thread is Cheltenham but I fully expect we shall see some winners over the weekend who will as a direct consequence scupper their chances at Cheltenham.
In particular I therefore don't want to see :
# Appreciate It and A. N. Other pull well clear and battle hard over the last 2 furlongs. Ditto re Monkfish.
# Asterion Forlonge bring down any of my leading fancies for Cheltenham.
# CPS and Min scrap it out for bragging rights, let one of them win easily and the other shut up shop in second place.
# For other reasons I don't want Entoucas to win at the weekend but maybe squeeze a place.
I really don't care who wins the Irish Gold Cup as IMO none of those running at the DRF will win the Cheltenham GC
I hope that Honeysuckle doesn't perform well enough in the ICH to then go for the CH, as the only mare I want to run in the CH is Epatante.
I'm sure Sir G, Bolly and ABP will be happily enjoying a carrot or three while their compatriots slug it out.
I'm a bit concerned about the soft ground and whether some hard races over the weekend could take their toll ahead of Cheltenham. The competetive nature of the entries suggests to me that we could see quite a few hard fought races, maybe more so. than previously.
Yeah I think you are right to be concerned about this.
On the plus side there’s 5/6 weeks for horses to recover, rest then get back to peak fitness, but some horses take racing better than others so I think it would be wise to give horses at Cheltenham a second look that bombed at Leopardstown (given an easy time) and also those horses who have run well following a hard fought deep ground battle previously.
Just another dimension we have to consider...
Saturday - Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Haven’t backed anything running here for either the Ballymore or the Albert Bartlett - the latter being a race I can’t get my head around. I hope to be able to react quick enough if anything wins really well and shortens for either race - hopefully the AB. I have got Bob Olinger for the Ballymore so hopefully nothing wins impressively and gets aimed there, particularly GDM who’s been backed all week like he’s an absolute machine.
Saturday - Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
Got all the good prices for the CC from April/May time on Chacun. He’s now 13/2 into 5/4 for the race. It’s all about him here for me. Him being beat would be the biggest blow of the weekend for me antepost id have thought. Have Min for the Ryanair again too so will hope for him running on in second as he did a year ago.
Saturday - Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
I personally don’t think much of Energumene. I don’t think he’s in the same league as Shishkin. That being said, he’s still unbeaten this season and tried by Mullins. So he’s still somewhat of a threat. So I’ll probably be hoping to see him beat.
Saturday - Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
Benie in the Chase has more chance of happening if Honeysuckle goes to the Hurdle herself. Which means I want her beat here. I’ll be delighted if she’s beaten but showing enough to still look a threat in the Mares Hurdle and Mr Mullins thus concludes that the easier race at Cheltenham for BDD is the Chase. As for my book on the Champion Hurdle, Saint Roi is my main dart before he ran poorly last time so I’m hoping he wins. If not, I have small plays on Abacadabras and Sharjah for my book anyway. A honeysuckle win is a terrible outcome for me.
Saturday - Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
I liked your Itchy Feet angle a while back for him in the Stayers and I’m going to be adding him there for that one before the race. May even back one of those ‘to win today and the stayers’ specials. Just want him covered at a price as my main two are now the two shorties in the market so I can afford to look to solidify my position by having a couple of others covered from here on in.
Saturday - Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
Whilst not a Tizzard fan, I backed TBB after his debut this season. Don’t think he’s good enough to beat monkfish but I suspect him bouncing back here and confirming his place in the RSA does no harm. And I think he will as I think Wetherby will be ideal for a boat like him.
Saturday - Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
Nothing for me here. Will likely back Messire Des Obeaux for the race though so obviously will want him to win. Nothing if Cheltenham interest though.
Sunday - Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
Come on Quilixios!! My main dairy for the Triumph and this is judgement day for him. I do also have a little on French Aseel who may take him on. They’re my only two for the Triumph at this point so both being beat would be a bad result. Quilixios winning would be an excellent result.
Sunday - Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Have Appreciate It for the supreme and Ballyadam any race. Will want appreciate it to win and Ballyadam to run well and perhaps even get himself to the Ballymore which is the ideal. Think the favourite is a good thing.
Sunday - Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
Backed Monkfish for the RSA so will want him to win here. However, I’ve also backed him to win this race doubles with LE in the NH Chase so him going well in second would be nice. Can’t see Monkfish beaten.
Sunday - Irish Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1)
Haven’t really got any of these backed for the Gold Cup as far as I can remember. Not a great renewal of the race either in my view. I suppose Minella Indo is the likely winner but I’m still dubious with him.
Monday - Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)
Will want a Gauloise win for the MN Hurdle. Certainly not one of the bigger races for me this weekend though.
I’d love to see Quilixios win easily and I think that will happen too. Of all this year’s juveniles in the triumph market, he’s been the most impressive to my (untrained) eye.
Given how many diaries there are surprised there aren’t more contributors to the thread
It's probably just apprehension that the dress rehearsal could go horribly wrong, with lead roles fluffing their lines and then only having a few weeks to put it right.
I reckon there will be loads on here during tomorrow / Sunday though, when they have seen their proteges put in faultless performances.
Given how many diaries there are surprised there aren’t more contributors to the thread
I've posted my thoughts in my diary for each race....as it's just essentially me talking about what I've already got, what I want, and what I've then added....
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