Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

[Eggs]

...Sporting John likely to be heading here according to Hobbs (interview Sporting Life website).

[delsie777]

How many actually turn up in The Ballymore?

Having spent a bit of time looking at this market, it occurred to me how few are actually confirmed in this race. Leaving aside EA, TBG, TBB and SJ, who else is likely to line up? There must be some eachway value there somewhere, surely? Or do we lump on the 2nd, 3rd or 4th Fav eachway 1,2,3 in the hope that only a few turn up?

[Kevloaf]

Having spent a bit of time looking at this market, it occurred to me how few are actually confirmed in this race. Leaving aside EA, TBG, TBB and SJ, who else is likely to line up? There must be some eachway value there somewhere, surely? Or do we lump on the 2nd, 3rd or 4th Fav eachway 1,2,3 in the hope that only a few turn up?

I see all the 5 at the top of the betting as being quite strong, so the bigger priced runners aren't massively appealing each way, but Pipesmoker and Allart are two I have backed that I think are alright... although I'll probably cash them out if the big guns stand their ground!

[Run4Home]

From todays Tizzard tour

It’s the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle for The Big Breakaway
Joe Tizzard absolutely delighted with his preparation ahead of a clash with Envoi Allen at @CheltenhamRaces

[charlie]

From todays Tizzard tour

It’s the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle for The Big Breakaway
Joe Tizzard absolutely delighted with his preparation ahead of a clash with Envoi Allen at @CheltenhamRaces

Buzzing. It's hard to be bullish about him v EV but I'm giving it a go!

[Vautour]

Watched the bookmaker preview and had rather forgotten how little work the yard said they had done with Envoi between the Royal Bond and his last run, which makes it an incredibly impressive performance in my view. In a race where speed is often required at the end I can’t see Envoi being beat and there is a bit of decency bias in respect of cases being made for the others.

I think he’ll get taken on by the bookies and he could prove to be the best bet of the week.

He is a big part of my ante post book but I don’t feel any of the above is pocket talking - on all evidence and what the yard have said, and indeed what every other trainer/jockey in Ireland is saying he is a dead cert.

[charlie]

Watched the bookmaker preview and had rather forgotten how little work the yard said they had done with Envoi between the Royal Bond and his last run, which makes it an incredibly impressive performance in my view. In a race where speed is often required at the end I can’t see Envoi being beat and there is a bit of decency bias in respect of cases being made for the others.

I think he’ll get taken on by the bookies and he could prove to be the best bet of the week.

He is a big part of my ante post book but I don’t feel any of the above is pocket talking - on all evidence and what the yard have said, and indeed what every other trainer/jockey in Ireland is saying he is a dead cert.

I will be cheering EA on as he's a big winner for me, but I am conscious this race looks far more competitive now than it did a month ago. The Big Breakaway, The Big Getaway and Sporting John could all be anything.

[Saxon Warrior]

I will be cheering EA on as he's a big winner for me, but I am conscious this race looks far more competitive now than it did a month ago. The Big Breakaway, The Big Getaway and Sporting John could all be anything.

Yes, there are four real quality horses in here, one that achieved more earlier in his career, the other three more recently.
We won’t know who is progressing fastest, and is best for the race, until it happens.
Hopefully everyone on the forum has one or more of these four at decent prices.

[Vautour]

David Mullins was not very keen on the Big Getaway and Tizzard has just said Fiddler in the roof is their best chance in the novices which, for me, downgrades the Big Breakaway. I think Sporting John is benefitting from recency bias.

On paper it is a very strong race but got me the Big Breakaway and Getaway will come into their own chasing and Sporting John hasn’t shown enough for me to be a real threat.

I take real note of Donoghue being so bullish about Envoi as well as Codd saying he is the best horse he has sat on. Both are massive comments and when coupled with his imperious and holeless form and likelihood he will improve on what he has done, I think he’s bulletproof.

[Saxon Warrior]

David Mullins was not very keen on the Big Getaway and Tizzard has just said Fiddler in the roof is their best chance in the novices which, for me, downgrades the Big Breakaway. I think Sporting John is benefitting from recency bias.

On paper it is a very strong race but got me the Big Breakaway and Getaway will come into their own chasing and Sporting John hasn’t shown enough for me to be a real threat.
.

I take real note of Donoghue being so bullish about Envoi as well as Codd saying he is the best horse he has sat on. Both are massive comments and when coupled with his imperious and holeless form and likelihood he will improve on what he has done, I think he’s bulletproof.

You have great back up, on which to base your opinion, which is an excellent place to be, to answer any challenge to it.

I think everyone thinks EA will improve for chasing too.

This is going to be a cracking race, and I would expect that more than one horse will have a chance going to the last hurdle, and then let the hill and the horses produce the finale to this story.

I haven’t seen Fred Done paying out early on EA, or any other Festival runner, in history, yet.

[kinloch brae]

When I read opinions like the above I just wonder why?

Who are we trying to convince?

I doubt anyone who isn't financially involved sees a horse who has only raced once over the trip as a certainty. The trainer said he would improve for the step up in trip but he didn't unless of course you think the likes of Latest Exhibition are just as good as him.

That said the opposition have much to prove as well. At the moment the likes of The Big Breakaway and particularly The Big Getaway are very much in the hype over substance bracket.

I liked the way Sporting John finished out his race at Ascot. It looked better in comparison to Envoi Allen's win over the trip in that the further he went the better he looked. It wouldn't surprise me if he outstayed the favourite but I wouldn't be overly confident.

[Kevloaf]

Taking work riders comments and dismissing things as recent bias are not the best way to back up your opinions on his chances?

His chance is based on him being unbeaten and having the best form so far, as well as being a festival winner already which none of his opponents can boast.

What Keith D and Jamie C are saying doesn't mean much at all. It's nice confirmation bias if you're already on, but it equates to nothing.

[punterorplonker]

Son of camas...interesting!.

[dthompson114]

Son of Camas been taken out of Supreme so this his the only option due to not being qualified for county hurdle. Not a bad each way shout @50/1 NRNB

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Only 25 left in the Ballymore