Stayers Hurdle 2020

[Old Hustler]

You should really be taking the 60 on the exchanges then.

Given that he is 60.0, it's long odds on he goes RSA.

The prices reflect that most people hadnt even realised Champ made the last cut of entries for this and dont consider it possible he will switch. If he was definitely going to the RSA then Hendo would not have bothered entering him in Supreme.

Agree RSA has always been the aim and they will decide next week after the racecourse schooling, if they think his jumping has improved then they will go RSA. I think 60/40 is a fair percentage though.

I wouldnt take the 60.0 on tge exchanges for 2 reasons. The main reason is I dont think he would beat Paisley Park if he does switch and its very possible he wont switch so no appeal for le at 60.0. I just think its more likely that since falling he hasnt transformed into a foot perfect jumper hence my feelings.

[germanshepherd]

The prices reflect that most people hadnt even realised Champ made the last cut of entries for this and dont consider it possible he will switch. If he was definitely going to the RSA then Hendo would not have bothered entering him in Supreme.

Agree RSA has always been the aim and they will decide next week after the racecourse schooling, if they think his jumping has improved then they will go RSA. I think 60/40 is a fair percentage though.

I wouldnt take the 60.0 on tge exchanges for 2 reasons. The main reason is I dont think he would beat Paisley Park if he does switch and its very possible he wont switch so no appeal for le at 60.0. I just think its more likely that since falling he hasnt transformed into a foot perfect jumper hence my feelings.

no the prices reflect that he's not 60/40 to run. you're clearly miles off.

[Old Hustler]

no the prices reflect that he's not 60/40 to run. you're clearly miles off.

The prices of 6/1 from the 2 biggest bookmakers (coral and Ladbrokes) dispute that. Obviously nrnb is heavily factored into these prices but if I was miles off then the recent supreme entry at the latest cut off suggests im not miles off at all and he could go either way.

The exchanges reflect public opinion, the supreme entry suggests that opinion shouldnt be considered such a certainty.
If he was a certainty to run in the RSA then Hendo would not have entered him in the Supreme. That doesnt mean my percentage is right thats just my opinion. The fact he has given this horse this entry clearly tells us that his mind is not yet made up.

[ComplyOrDie]

The prices of 6/1 from the 2 biggest bookmakers (coral and Ladbrokes) dispute that. Obviously nrnb is heavily factored into these prices but if I was miles off then the recent supreme entry at the latest cut off suggests im not miles off at all and he could go either way.

The exchanges reflect public opinion, the supreme entry suggests that opinion shouldnt be considered such a certainty.

The fact Nicky's stable sponsors go 20/1 along with Betfair for the Stayers, the firm that usually know and the have the exchanges at their disposal, i.e. seeing where the money would be coming from etc... is enough in itself for me.

[Quevega]

The prices of 6/1 from the 2 biggest bookmakers (coral and Ladbrokes) dispute that. Obviously nrnb is heavily factored into these prices but if I was miles off then the recent supreme entry at the latest cut off suggests im not miles off at all and he could go either way.

The exchanges reflect public opinion, the supreme entry suggests that opinion shouldnt be considered such a certainty.
If he was a certainty to run in the RSA then Hendo would not have entered him in the Supreme. That doesnt mean my percentage is right thats just my opinion. The fact he has given this horse this entry clearly tells us that his mind is not yet made up.

stop calling it the supreme, it's affecting your credibility.
once was ok but....

[Lostintranslation]

Old hustler talking complete Bollix.
Stop digging pops ffs

[Old Hustler]

stop calling it the supreme, it's affecting your credibility.
once was ok but....

Stayers obviously I meant, no idea why I writ supreme.

And therea no need to be rude to the guy who says im talking complete bollocks.

Hendo has entered him im the stayers at the last cut off point. This is factual and its important that people are aware of it. Its hardly bollocks at all.

How rude.

[Lostintranslation]

So you think it 60/40 % that he ll run here
But you wont take the 50+ on the exchange.
Sorry but how ever you dress it up this
Rationale is utter arse gravy.

[Quevega]

Stayers obviously I meant, no idea why I writ supreme.

And therea no need to be rude to the guy who says im talking complete bollocks.

Hendo has entered him im the stayers at the last cut off point. This is factual and its important that people are aware of it. Its hardly bollocks at all.

How rude.

I think he left him in just in case he fell again (or jumper terribly) at Kelso.
I don't think he's jumped terribly previously btw.
So, your hunch about the stayers could still come to fruition as he could have a really really bad school.
But it's not 60/40.

[Old Hustler]

The fact Nicky's stable sponsors go 20/1 along with Betfair for the Stayers, the firm that usually know and the have the exchanges at their disposal, i.e. seeing where the money would be coming from etc... is enough in itself for me.

Here is a little test for you. Every horse that Hendo runs check whether Unibet are biggest price or shortest price then check the results. They dont know anything, Hendo just writes a little blog for them. He probably doesnt even write it and someone does it for him. Using Unibet prices is no guide whatsoever no matter what you believe.

[Lostintranslation]

"I love a good random use of percentage's.
But this is way off the mark".

Q

[Old Hustler]

So you think it 60/40 % that he ll run here
But you wont take the 50+ on the exchange.
Sorry but how ever you dress it up this
Rationale is utter arse gravy.

I already explained that I dont think he would beat Paisley Park and i consider it very possible he wont come here as 60/40 is close to 50/50 I just think its slightly more likely he comes here.

Why would I want to back a horse who I dont think would win this race and who may not come here?

That would make no sense to me. I would like him to come here as it will mean Paisley Parks price will become much more bacakable if he is confirmed. Thats the bet I would take, Paisley at considerably bigger odds than he is now.

[Lostintranslation]

Id rather lump on Paisley at 8/11 than take 10/11 on him with Champ running.
At the moment it looks a penalty kick for Paisley

[Quevega]

I already explained that I dont think he would beat Paisley Park and i consider it very possible he wont come here as 60/40 is close to 50/50 I just think its slightly more likely he comes here.

Why would I want to back a horse who I dont think would win this race and who may not come here?

That would make no sense to me. I would like him to come here as it will mean Paisley Parks price will become much more bacakable if he is confirmed. Thats the bet I would take, Paisley at considerably bigger odds than he is now.

At 60's though.
Antepost betting is like any betting.
You need things to fall you way.
What if your hunch comes true and PP gets an absess the week before.
What price would champ go off then ?
If you think he has a reasonable chance of winning without PP then 60-1 is massive.
You should back your theory. even for a couple of pounds.

[Morley Street]

I already explained that I dont think he would beat Paisley Park and i consider it very possible he wont come here as 60/40 is close to 50/50 I just think its slightly more likely he comes here.

Why would I want to back a horse who I dont think would win this race and who may not come here?

That would make no sense to me. I would like him to come here as it will mean Paisley Parks price will become much more bacakable if he is confirmed. Thats the bet I would take, Paisley at considerably bigger odds than he is now.

My missus got me into watching the Masked Singer on ITV... probably because I’m naturally suspicious but this smells of the Masked Poster.... I know exactly who this is! ....stealing someone’s ID, but not quite, very opinionated, circling back to old threads, derogatory about Champs’s chances in the RSA... welcome back to the Forum ET!