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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

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  • Originally posted by Big Bucks View Post
    Here confirmed?
    Betting suggests so BB!

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
      Why you pissed off then ?
      Because the cash out would have been a lot higher if I had waited, and would be nice to have the extra on at 40's if he goes for this race.

      Comment


      • Had a nibble on Beacon Edge for this, like the look of him and could run nice at a big price

        Comment


        • Added Edwardstone boosted @23 on Hills. Seems to be a decent amount of sweet talk about him.

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          • Starting to get concerned about the ground situation here
            Elliott stating Envoi Allen could come here if it turns up really soft
            Paddy Brennan said they would have struggled to race on it today it is that heavy
            Now forecast is more rain
            Will hurt me more than anyone if it happens
            Please convince me it won’t ?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Liammet View Post
              Starting to get concerned about the ground situation here
              Elliott stating Envoi Allen could come here if it turns up really soft
              Paddy Brennan said they would have struggled to race on it today it is that heavy
              Now forecast is more rain
              Will hurt me more than anyone if it happens
              Please convince me it won’t ?
              It won't. They're just keeping the price nice and fair in the Ballymore.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                It won't. They're just keeping the price nice and fair in the Ballymore.
                That didn’t convince me

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Liammet View Post
                  That didn’t convince me
                  Have a NRNB double on Envoi Allen in the Supreme with whatever you think wins a heavy ground Ballymore then

                  Comment


                  • Wasn't there similar chat about Samcro the year of his Ballymore win? Wouldn't worry too much tbh.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      Have a NRNB double on Envoi Allen in the Supreme with whatever you think wins a heavy ground Ballymore then
                      Not having another bet at the entire festival if he doesn’t turn up in the Ballymore

                      It will be like Cilaos Emery and Master Dino from last year rolled into one

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Altior View Post
                        Wasn't there similar chat about Samcro the year of his Ballymore win? Wouldn't worry too much tbh.
                        Yep. Was soft that year.



                        There is nothing to worry about.

                        Liam's just having a 1-week-wobble

                        Comment


                        • Clerk for the course predicted Good to Soft earlier in the week, more rain forecasted since then but heavy available @15 on Betfair. Soft a 8/11 chance but don’t think that would conceivably result in any switch.

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                          • I'm a big fan of Gordy but his whole shtick of "ah yeah we're happy with him yeah he'll hopefully go to (insert race here) but yeah we'll see what happens yeah dja know the going will play a big part yeah so we'll have to wait and see yeah and we're really looking forward to it yeah" would piss you off and make you question whether you've a clean pair of jocks on for no reason.

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                            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                              Yep. Was soft that year.



                              There is nothing to worry about.

                              Liam's just having a 1-week-wobble
                              Ha,Thanks lads

                              Feel a whole lot better now

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
                                Clerk for the course predicted Good to Soft earlier in the week, more rain forecasted since then but heavy available @15 on Betfair. Soft a 8/11 chance but don’t think that would conceivably result in any switch.
                                Backing Heavy at 14/1 is better than Envoi Allen at 5/2 NRNB Supreme?

                                You could collect twice.





                                Betting on the weather is so low on my list of things I'll do in my life though. Bit boring in myyyyyyy opinion. Ground is 'only' one factor to consider, and is one of the most over-egged factors in terms of prices. I've never seen anybody able to justify them making a profit based on betting on the ground....

                                It's just something people use in hindsight to crow about being right, or make excuses when they've backed a horse with less ability than another


                                It's a trainers go-to excuse a lot of the time. Easiest thing to blame. Obviously it is A factor, but so is the jockey, the horses ability, horses fitness, pace bias, etc etc blah blah

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