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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

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  • Originally posted by MadeinJapan View Post
    That's worrying he's saying that. On several of this other runners & in my opinion Fiddlerontheroof is not one of his better chances
    It's an obvious pick though isn't it. He's got the Grade 1 in the bag and I imagine connections of Fiddlerontheroof wouldn't be best pleased if he said The Big Breakaway was his best chance of the week.

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    • I made a mention in the Triumph thread a couple of days ago (#1044) that I had bet Sir Psycho @ 40/1 (45/1 with boost) for the Supreme. Noticed today that PP were offering a small profit for cashing out. They are now 25/1. A fair bit of blue with other bookies too.
      The stable now have Solo and maybe Mick Pastor for the Triumph.
      They have nothing for the Supreme.
      If he goes he will get 8lbs from the older horses.
      His OR is 147.
      I haven't heard anything but noticed Lads still 50/1 NRNB if anybody is interested

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      • Does Edwardstone go here? Strikes me as more of a speed horse for Aintree.

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        • Captain Guinness looks the overlooked horse to me. Very nearly beat a decent yardstick in Andy Dufresne last time out after doing everything wrong lto. I think a strong pace here will suit him and if he manages to settle i can see him being in the mix

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          • Originally posted by Unexposed View Post
            Captain Guinness looks the overlooked horse to me. Very nearly beat a decent yardstick in Andy Dufresne last time out after doing everything wrong lto. I think a strong pace here will suit him and if he manages to settle i can see him being in the mix
            is AD that decent of a yardstick though? was beaten comfortably LTO and certainly wouldn't have him up there with the best of the irish novices

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            • Originally posted by darlojim View Post
              is AD that decent of a yardstick though? was beaten comfortably LTO and certainly wouldn't have him up there with the best of the irish novices
              I'm not saying he is the best of the Irish novices, but he is undoubtedly a solid group horse. The race last time out was not ran to suit his strengths, they slowed up down the back and it turned into a bit of a sprint. Captain Guinness pulled his way round for about half the track when he met AF and the fact he was still pitching at the end suggested to me that there was some real ability there.

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              • Tbf to Andy Dufresne he was carrying 6 pounds more than the rest and lost by 4 and a bit lengths. As Unexposed has said, the slow pace was unlikely to suit.

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                • Originally posted by Unexposed View Post
                  Captain Guinness looks the overlooked horse to me. Very nearly beat a decent yardstick in Andy Dufresne last time out after doing everything wrong lto. I think a strong pace here will suit him and if he manages to settle i can see him being in the mix
                  William Hill's have pushed him out to 16-1 today .

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                  • Only 2 career runs for Captain Guinness.

                    The Supreme is coming too early in his career. He could well turn into a very good horse, but at 14/1 I don't think I'll chance him doing something no horse has ever done before at the festival.

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                    • Originally posted by kinloch brae View Post
                      Does Edwardstone go here? Strikes me as more of a speed horse for Aintree.
                      Sounds like plan is to run here...

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                      • The 40/1 Chantry House backers who have cashed out must be feeling pissed off. I know I am

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                        • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post
                          The 40/1 Chantry House backers who have cashed out must be feeling pissed off. I know I am
                          You should only feel pissed off if it wins.
                          And it probably won't.
                          Obviously I covered my cash out for profit via 40-1 on betfair.
                          You could have done the same.

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                          • Here confirmed?

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                            • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                              You should only feel pissed off if it wins.
                              And it probably won't.
                              Obviously I covered my cash out for profit via 40-1 on betfair.
                              You could have done the same.
                              I've backed it 28/1 any race so didn't need to cover.

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                              • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post
                                I've backed it 28/1 any race so didn't need to cover.
                                Why you pissed off then ?

                                And with the profit - If you still fancy it strongly, I'm fairly sure it's gonna be 10's and bigger when final decs are made.

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