Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Kevloaf]

With the increasing likelihood of soft ground for day 1 Asterion Forlonge is becoming an even stronger selection for me in this race. Has to be a negative for Abacadabras and I really fancy Asterion to win from the front in the fashion of previous Mullins winners in this race. Anyone have a different view?

My view on him winning in the fashion of previous Mullins winners, is that they had Ruby Walsh on them, setting the fractions. I think some of Mullins Supreme winners won with no small part due to the ride they got.

I don't think Paul Townend has as much of an edge in the saddle, and therefore it brings Asterion Forlonge closer to the pack.

I agree with the theory, but worry about whether it'll be executed as well.

[Humble Pie]

My view on him winning in the fashion of previous Mullins winners, is that they had Ruby Walsh on them, setting the fractions. I think some of Mullins Supreme winners won with no small part due to the ride they got.

I don't think Paul Townend has as much of an edge in the saddle, and therefore it brings Asterion Forlonge closer to the pack.

I agree with the theory, but worry about whether it'll be executed as well.

Diplomatic Corps calling Kev re Townend , I’ve never been a fan and am very concerned about the lack of “ edge” he brings

IMO
So many better jockeys in Ireland than Bellend

[Old Vic]

Don’t like jockey bashing and think Paul is best of the younger ones. Not easy following Ruby though. Tony Keenan did a piece on overall jockey situation at Willies

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/irish-angle/26-February-2020

[Kevloaf]

Diplomatic Corps calling Kev re Townend , I’ve never been a fan and am very concerned about the lack of “ edge” he brings

IMO
So many better jockeys in Ireland than Bellend

To be fair I'm not trying that hard to be diplomatic, I think Townend is very good - he has and will win plenty more Grade 1's and Cheltenham winners...

Ruby was the best I've ever seen, Paul Townend is similar to all the other Irish jockeys. I'd personally have Davy Russell at the top of the tree now, but the gap between him and R.Power, M.Walsh, J.Kennedy, P.Townend, R.Blackmore is only a small one, if there at all!

[luisgarciaisgod]

Obviously Gordon knows best but going through Abracadabra's form i honestly think his most impressive victory was the one at Navan on soft/heavy.

[kinloch brae]

With the increasing likelihood of soft ground for day 1 Asterion Forlonge is becoming an even stronger selection for me in this race. Has to be a negative for Abacadabras and I really fancy Asterion to win from the front in the fashion of previous Mullins winners in this race. Anyone have a different view?

Even if it is a swamp I don't think he will be quick enough or good enough. He is in the wrong race. The price reflects the trainer, not the bare form. He won a poor renewal of that Leopardstown race in the style of a horse who clearly would benefit from going up in trip. Walsh has tried to suggest that 5/6 of his Supreme winners were stayers. Not exactly sure about that but even it were true the chances are they were all quicker than Asterion Forlonge.

[Jrow]

I think Townend rides Cheltenham well

Some cracking rides aboard penhill, not to mention the beautifully timed one he gave Arctic Fire. Won the Arkle and Gold
cup last year.

[jack1092]

Diplomatic Corps calling Kev re Townend , I’ve never been a fan and am very concerned about the lack of “ edge” he brings

IMO
So many better jockeys in Ireland than Bellend

It's your opinion + that, but that is ridiculous. He's up there with the best no doubt.

The issue is he's not Ruby.

But then again, i'm pretty certain if Ruby was still riding Asterion would be fav, why?

Ruby would have picked to ride him at Leop, he'd have bolted up like he did + then it would've all looked more obvious.

[Kevloaf]

It's your opinion + that, but that is ridiculous. He's up there with the best no doubt.

The issue is he's not Ruby.

But then again, i'm pretty certain if Ruby was still riding Asterion would be fav, why?

Ruby would have picked to ride him at Leop, he'd have bolted up like he did + then it would've all looked more obvious.

...because he is Ruby...

It would be more obvious because the jockey had proven he had the exact skill set required.



Ruby is worth X lbs .... which is why he'd be shorter than he is now?

[jack1092]

...because he is Ruby...

It would be more obvious because the jockey had proven he had the exact skill set required.



Ruby is worth X lbs .... which is why he'd be shorter than he is now?

He'd not have chosen Mt Leinster like Paul had, which is playing into a lot of the doubters hands who think "he needs further", "he should be in Ballymore" etc.

[Jrow]

Recent Comments from Mullins suggests Paul isnt in control of who he rides a lot of the time Jack

Willie in his own words said he puts paul on the wrong one from time to time

[jack1092]

Recent Comments from Mullins suggests Paul isnt in control of who he rides a lot of the time Jack

Willie in his own words said he puts paul on the wrong one from time to time

Yep fully aware, and doesn't make a button of difference to my point tbf. Townend rode Leinster, it doesn't matter who told him to. It still looks how it looks.

[Old Vic]

He'd not have chosen Mt Leinster like Paul had, which is playing into a lot of the doubters hands who think "he needs further", "he should be in Ballymore" etc.

I am not sure Paul gets to pick

[jack1092]

Ps, even though i didn't mean to sound like Townend definitely picked Asterion, more than he rode him for whatever reason. Willie told him to or he decided himself. Quote from Townends Ladbrokes blog:
My next ride is Mt Leinster (1.55). Easywork sets the standard. We were four or five lengths behind him in Gowran in our first run of the season. I think we can get a lot closer to him on Sunday as he has good course form and won well at Christmas in a maiden.

It wasn’t easy to pick between him and Asterion Forlonge. He was mightily impressive at Naas but I just think the course form of Mt Leinster could give him the advantage here. Asterion Forlonge could possibly be better over further as well.

[Old Vic]

Fair enough - I think in Tony Keenans piece it was suggested he either doesn’t get to pick or was less of a judge than Ruby. I don’t know.