Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[mayo]

I should probably add (although it is in my ante post diary and could well have posted here) that I did back these:

Sporting John, Chantry House (Supreme/Ballymore)	713/1
Chantry House, Sporting John (Supreme/Ballymore)	272/1
Chantry House, Sporting John (Supreme/Ballymore) - NRNB	164/1

In short, I hope they're all very good.

I have a few of these but worried chantry will end up in the county

[mayo]

Did Hobbs saying anything about Sporting John after he won on "sporting john Day", Ive got him down as a Supreme horse and Chantry as a Ballymore, Im any race for both but I think they would be more suited by those targets rather than going the reverse.

"I'm delighted and he did it very well. Barry thinks he has got plenty enough pace for two miles, but he obviously stays two and a half well. You could do whatever at this stage," Hobbs said.
"I thought the ground was plenty soft enough for him. He did finish off well.
"Maybe at this stage going a bit further might be the thing to do. He probably thought coming here was a bit different, but that's only the fourth run of his life.
"He is a lovely horse and he has a very good future - whatever he does over hurdles he will be better over fences. He is something to look forward to, but is also good in the short term.
"Hopefully he has got enough experience (for Cheltenham) as he has had three hurdle races and a point-to-point."

[charlie]

Did Hobbs saying anything about Sporting John after he won on "sporting john Day", Ive got him down as a Supreme horse and Chantry as a Ballymore, Im any race for both but I think they would be more suited by those targets rather than going the reverse.

Hobbs - "I think he's got plenty of pace for two but he stays two-and-a-half easily so the options are open to say the least".

[Brooksie]

I think Ted Walsh is bang on the money mid commentary the other week - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtpgLaEDqnw

I can see a complete repeat of the Chanelle Pharma in this race. Asterion Forlonge out in front from start to finish grinding each of them down one by one. In terms of OR ratings I'd actually have AF 2lbs clear of Envoi Allen, if you go through the ultra consistent Conflated.

The one I can see moving through the pack to pose a challenge is Shishkin, but if he pulls early expending too much energy I can see him getting tired, just like Mytentoryours when out battled by Champagne Fever. Bookies have these two priced the wrong way round imo.

[Quevega]

I think Ted Walsh is bang on the money mid commentary the other week - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtpgLaEDqnw

I can see a complete repeat of the Chanelle Pharma in this race. Asterion Forlonge out in front from start to finish grinding each of them down one by one. In terms of OR ratings I'd actually have AF 2lbs clear of Envoi Allen, if you go through the ultra consistent Conflated.

The one I can see moving through the pack to pose a challenge is Shishkin, but if he pulls early expending too much energy I can see him getting tired, just like Mytentoryours when out battled by Champagne Fever. Bookies have these two priced the wrong way round imo.

How I see it too.

[AnFiieLD.]

I think Ted Walsh is bang on the money mid commentary the other week - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtpgLaEDqnw

I can see a complete repeat of the Chanelle Pharma in this race. Asterion Forlonge out in front from start to finish grinding each of them down one by one. In terms of OR ratings I'd actually have AF 2lbs clear of Envoi Allen, if you go through the ultra consistent Conflated.

The one I can see moving through the pack to pose a challenge is Shishkin, but if he pulls early expending too much energy I can see him getting tired, just like Mytentoryours when out battled by Champagne Fever. Bookies have these two priced the wrong way round imo.

My views exactly

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agree with that Brookside. I expected AF's price to drop steadily on the run-up to Cheltenham but if anything, he's going the other way. I can't understand it and can only think it's because the Ballymore is still an option.

[The King Pimm]

I think Ted Walsh is bang on the money mid commentary the other week - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtpgLaEDqnw

I can see a complete repeat of the Chanelle Pharma in this race. Asterion Forlonge out in front from start to finish grinding each of them down one by one. In terms of OR ratings I'd actually have AF 2lbs clear of Envoi Allen, if you go through the ultra consistent Conflated.

The one I can see moving through the pack to pose a challenge is Shishkin, but if he pulls early expending too much energy I can see him getting tired, just like Mytentoryours when out battled by Champagne Fever. Bookies have these two priced the wrong way round imo.

That’s almost what Klassical Dream did last year, led half way and just kept piling it on. The long range forecast is a dry and mild early March but I can still see it being soft come the festival which will see horses with genuine speed & stamina excelling

[Saxon Warrior]

I didn't even say Shiskin can't/won't win, I'm just questioning WHY the public/bookies are so adament he is going to be special. It isn't like it's the first time we've had a horse hyped up, but it does seem odd when there are viable alternatives?

Bit patronising. I'd have taken offence to that if you'd have said it to my face

Question for you though, as you've daaaaays you've waited 2 months for Sporting John to put in a performance like that ... is he not a better bet at 10/1 NRNB than Shishkin is at 11/4 NRNB? Or are you firmly of the belief he's a Ballymore horse.

Kev,

Apologies if I caused any offence, it isn't meant, and I am sorry if any is/was taken.

What I was trying to get across is that there's a big disparity between the Irish pre-Festival Grade 1 pattern and the British Grade 1 pattern, that should be taken into account when looking at the Supreme and the Ballymore.

Britain literally has no Grade 1 Novice Hurdles worthy of comparison with Irelands pre-Festival programme, so Irish form at Grade 1 level will always look miles better than the British Grade 1 Novice hurdle form, before Cheltenham.

All of our proper Grade 1 Novice Hurdles (over 2M, 2m4/5F and 3M) are run at the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree (3 at each).

Before this we have the putrid efforts of the Grade 1 - Challow Hurdle (2M4F Sandown) and the Tolworth Hurdle (2M Sandown) run over Christmas/New Year, which are really Grade 1&1/2's.

Comparison of Ireland and Britain Novice Hurdles pre-Festival

Ireland
Royal Bond - 2M - First Prize £49K
Future Champions - 2M - First Prize £54K
Lawlors - 2M4F - First Prize £49K
Chanelle Pharma - 2M - First Prize £76K
Golden Cygnet - 2M6F - First Prize £76K

Britain
Challow - 2M4F - First Prize £26K
Tolworth - 2M - First Prize £28K
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Thyme Hill won the Challow Hurdle from The Cashel Man by just over a length, and won £26K.
Thyme Hill won £18K and £20K for two Grade 2 wins before the Challow.

Shiskin's won the Listed Sydney Banks Hurdle by 11 lengths and won £17K, similar to Thyme Hill's Grade 2 wins, in prize money.
--------------------------------------------

The British pre-Festival Grade 1's aren't worth winning in comparison to Irelands, and are no better than the British Listed or Grade 2 races.

That's the comparison I was trying to make.

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Looking at the last 10 years winners/runners up of the Tolworth (2M4F) there are no Grade 1 Novice Hurdle winners at Cheltenham at all (and only Champ over 3M at Aintree, won a Grade 1 after a 1st/2nd place in the Tolworth).

Looking at the last 10 years winners/runners up of the Challow (2M) there is only Summerville Boy that doubles up in the Supreme over the same trip at Cheltenham, and Yorkhill (Ireland) that won the Challow and then the Ballymore (2m5F) at Cheltenham.
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Its this prize money differential thing that probably makes Nicky Henderson and others, work their British novice hurdlers toward the Festival in a completely different way to those campaigned in Ireland.

Hendo/Hobbs etc may as well pick up two or three novices, or a Listed race along the way rather that take in the poor Grade 1 pots of the Tolworth/Challow.

It makes for incredibly fierce debate (thanks Kev) that the Irish cant be beaten, they are battled-hardened, they are better etc.

A lot of the time I would agree, but there is room for Shishkin, Chantry House and Sporting John when assessing the Festival, and thinking that the British programme is bringing them to their chosen races with a good chance.

Are they good prices?
That's in each of our own opinions. I defo think Sporting John is good value at 8/1 NRNB for the Ballymore, Shishkin at 3/1 may be poorer value - I think this is where you and I may agree. Sporting John NRNB in the Supreme or Ballymore is a good call.

If I was backing one of those today, it would be Sporting John NRNB in the Ballymore, on the basis that Envoi Allen has only once ran against the British horses, when winning the Champion Bumper in March 2019.

So, to me, EA running against Sporting John/Chantry House in 2020 is akin to a La Liga team meeting a Premier League team in the Champions League this month - we don't have a lot of up-to-date collateral form.

Sorry again Kev

[Kevloaf]

All good.


Obviously a lot of points there and won't go through every single one as most I agree with anyway.



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Looking at the last 10 years winners/runners up of the Tolworth (2M4F) there are no Grade 1 Novice Hurdle winners at Cheltenham at all (and only Champ over 3M at Aintree, won a Grade 1 after a 1st/2nd place in the Tolworth).

Looking at the last 10 years winners/runners up of the Challow (2M) there is only Summerville Boy that doubles up in the Supreme over the same trip at Cheltenham, and Yorkhill (Ireland) that won the Challow and then the Ballymore (2m5F) at Cheltenham.
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Those 10 years don't prove to me though that it's the races fault.... the last 10 years would show a trend that the Irish horses have been better. It's a bi-product of the lack of UK Novice Hurdlers that means the Grade 1's in England have been weak, not the races themselves (as Yorkhill coming over would help prove?)


I do see your point, for the, the unexposed and unproven graded performer is shorter in the market. Now if Shishkin can popped over to Ireland when he was bought, he may well have still been winning, but if he'd done what he'd done over here, over there...he'd be even shorter?

I'm also definitely not saying the Irish can't be beaten. I would just say that they should be favourites for this race, and I'd then want Shishkin on my side as the potential value. The way round it is, makes it hard to get Shishkin on board?

[Saxon Warrior]

The prize money for British Graded Novice Hurdles (and Novice Chases) is majored around the Cheltenham/Aintree Festivals.

One way of getting British Novice Hurdlers to run a against each other would be to double the prize money for winning the Challow and the Tolworth to a minimum £50K each.

There is no reason that can’t be done, Newbury and Sandown are big tracks, with Grade 1 Flat races and all year round racing.

If they did that, then the fields would be bigger and better, and the form would stand up more. Horses like Sporting John and Shishkin could run two novices before and then take in the Challow or Tolworth, and then we would know what there ratings in proper Grade 1’s really is, to compare with EA, AF and Aba.

You are right, the Irish have generally been better anyway.

It’s no wonder that owners place their horses over there. The programme is such that a Novice Hurdler could win three Grade 1’s pre-Festival and pocket over £170K before racing for even more big money at Cheltenham/Aintree/Punchestown.

In Britain the most you could have won in a Grade 1 programme up to March is £28K (Challow and Tolworth are run in the same week, so you couldn’t double up).

[Kevloaf]

Yes, I suppose that's a wider issue for the BHA isn't it.

The incentive to have 'top level' horses based in the UK isn't as appealing as it would be to have the equivilant in Ireland.


Quite a stark difference, and whilst it does back up the reason perhaps UK Grade 1 hurdlers aren't a direct comparison, its hard to get away from the "fact" the Irish are more battle-hardened etc.


I don't think that's factored into Shishkin's price though. He might not have to be a top-notcher to beat the Irish horses this year, but he's priced like he is, and we can't know that yet?



I'm very, very hopeful he drifts out and I can get him in the book.

[Saxon Warrior]

Yes, I suppose that's a wider issue for the BHA isn't it.

The incentive to have 'top level' horses based in the UK isn't as appealing as it would be to have the equivilant in Ireland.


Quite a stark difference, and whilst it does back up the reason perhaps UK Grade 1 hurdlers aren't a direct comparison, its hard to get away from the "fact" the Irish are more battle-hardened etc.


I don't think that's factored into Shishkin's price though. He might not have to be a top-notcher to beat the Irish horses this year, but he's priced like he is, and we can't know that yet?



I'm very, very hopeful he drifts out and I can get him in the book.

I hope you do Kev, I know the pain of cashout and then watching a horse win, Mohaayed 33/1 County Hurdle for me, springs to mind, when the ground went soft and Harry Skelton got off the horse to ride Spiritofhtegames.

You’ve got a great Supreme book anyway, more coverage than mine, your odds on to have the winner.

[Quevega]

I hope you do Kev, I know the pain of cashout and then watching a horse win, Mohaayed 33/1 County Hurdle for me, springs to mind, when the ground went soft and Harry Skelton got off the horse to ride Spiritofhtegames.

You’ve got a great Supreme book anyway, more coverage than mine, your odds on to have the winner.

another one who over thinks things
I cashed Mohaayed too

[Kevloaf]

I hope you do Kev, I know the pain of cashout and then watching a horse win, Mohaayed 33/1 County Hurdle for me, springs to mind, when the ground went soft and Harry Skelton got off the horse to ride Spiritofhtegames.

You’ve got a great Supreme book anyway, more coverage than mine, your odds on to have the winner.

I haven't even looked at my own book for a while. Might need to do some laying off.

Will do it this afternoon actually, just got to put a new gaming chair together first...

I don't 'game' this time of year, but I need a gaming chair to let me move around while I furiously tap away on here like a keyboard warrior.



....and I notice you haven't put youself forward to be a captain SW? I'm sure it'd be a popular choice if you did....