Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Tangodelta]

I’m in the 1st camp in Charlie’s list

The Shishkin talk reminds me of angels breath last year, went very short after not beating anything of note and then didn’t perform on the day. Henderson was talking him up as well.

[Morley Street]

I’m in the 1st camp in Charlie’s list

The Shishkin talk reminds me of angels breath last year, went very short after not beating anything of note and then didn’t perform on the day. Henderson was talking him up as well.

Angel’s Breath’s bubble burst before he got anywhere near the Fez but backers failed to see it. There is far more substance to Shiskin’s form IMO.

[Kevloaf]

On a line through Shan Blue, he has the beating of Chantry House and the Edwardstone / Fiddler form lines can be linked - not good enough IMO. SJ brings a slightly stronger form line to the table but looks a stayer to me and as Charlie says, I don’t expect him to come here. That’s why I think he’s the best of the home team... who else is there? The Irish challengers are dangers as I said but there’s no way of comparing form other than the visuals / times.

He's won a Maiden and a Listed Race.

That is not worthy of being shorter than the Grade 1 horses as bare form?

If nothing else, I'd have him a bigger price than Asterion Forlonge and then he'd perhaps be an angle.



Again, 3/1 based on his actual form seems short. I understand relative to others you can upgrade it, but he hasn't got any form in a Graded race yet.... at 3/1, that's definitely something you'd want answered?

[Morley Street]

[QUOTE=Kevloaf;148193]He's won a Maiden and a Listed Race.

That is not worthy of being shorter than the Grade 1 horses as bare form?

If nothing else, I'd have him a bigger price than Asterion Forlonge and then he'd perhaps be an angle.



Again, 3/1 based on his actual form seems short. I understand relative to others you can upgrade it, but he hasn't got any form in a Graded race yet.... at 3/1, that's definitely something you'd want answered?[/QUOTE]

Ideally yeah you’re right Kev but if it was answered I reckon he’d be even shorter. If we could take graded form as gospel all of the time, we’d all be rich... sometimes you just have to go with your gut regardless of the lack of value. Anyway, missing the Masked Singer and my evil wife will be mad

[Faugheen_Machine]

sometimes you just have to go with your gut regardless of the lack of value. Anyway, missing the Masked Singer and my evil wife will be mad

Agree with this MS, trust your eyes and cover your ears. Advice I've always tried to follow.

Masked Singer? Surely an excuse to go to the pub!!

[Kautothegreat8]

Facts are Shishkin has won one race over hurdles over the minimum trip beating trees. He’s already fallen in his very short racing career which can only be a negative. Now, I’ve backed him at 25/1 so don’t get me wrong, I’ll be cheering him on up the hill come March but ........... 3/1 is nothing short of scandalous. The horse that has took my eye is Chantry House and the differential in price is insane !!!!!

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Shishkin reminds me of Buveur D’Air and the way he came into the Supreme; could see Shiskin being in the places but I certainly wouldn’t be backing him to win on all known evidence (and yes I also have a fancy antepost price)

[Pendil]

Agree with this MS, trust your eyes and cover your ears. Advice I've always tried to follow.

Masked Singer? Surely an excuse to go to the pub!!

Very good advice FM. Not masked stranger?

[Anay Turge]

I haven’t been a fan at all of Shiskin, but can see it hurting me on the day. I think the price will also be better on the day, so think il back on the day with Skybet if they do the £20 first race refund promo they do. Praying they do, as will give you a free opportunity to take on Envoi on the Wednesday as well

[Saxon Warrior]

“ He's won a Maiden and a Listed Race.
That is not worthy of being shorter than the Grade 1 horses as bare form?”

Nashwan only won a Maiden and a Listed race before winning the 2000 Guineas, Derby, Eclipse and King George, on the trot.
It didn’t stop the Guineas gamble on him being won.

I understand the arguments for horses that have won at higher grades than others, but don’t adopt this as a foolproof route to finding winners of specific races, and particularly when assessing Grade 1 horses against horses that haven’t even been tried at a higher level yet.

Grade 1’s aren’t only won by Grade 1 winning horses - Ridersonthestorm or Traffic Fluide vs Cyrname today.

Abacadabras has had four goes at Grade 1 level and one at Grade 2, and won once, against a mare rated 128.
I don’t think Abacadabras’s form is any better than Shishkin’s.

Aba’s best RPR is worse than Shishkin’s despite having repeated opportunities in a higher grade to post amazing figures, whilst Shishkin hasn’t had that opportunity yet.

What horses have won, or ran in, is a useful starting point, often a good finishing point, but never the deciding factor for me, particularly in novice races.

If I had to keep one of my Abacadabras and Shishkin bets and rip up the other, I know which one I would retain.

[Kevloaf]

“ He's won a Maiden and a Listed Race.
That is not worthy of being shorter than the Grade 1 horses as bare form?”

Nashwan only won a Maiden and a Listed race before winning the 2000 Guineas, Derby, Eclipse and King George, on the trot.
It didn’t stop the Guineas gamble on him being won.

I understand the arguments for horses that have won at higher grades than others, but don’t adopt this as a foolproof route to finding winners of specific races, and particularly when assessing Grade 1 horses against horses that haven’t even been tried at a higher level yet.

Grade 1’s aren’t only won by Grade 1 winning horses - Ridersonthestorm or Traffic Fluide vs Cyrname today.

Abacadabras has had four goes at Grade 1 level and one at Grade 2, and won once, against a mare rated 128.
I don’t think Abacadabras’s form is any better than Shishkin’s.

Aba’s best RPR is worse than Shishkin’s despite having repeated opportunities in a higher grade to post amazing figures, whilst Shishkin hasn’t had that opportunity yet.

What horses have won, or ran in, is a useful starting point, often a good finishing point, but never the deciding factor for me, particularly in novice races.

If I had to keep one of my Abacadabras and Shishkin bets and rip up the other, I know which one I would retain.

Picking out Nashwan to prove that point does nothing... Shishkin will effectivly have to be one of the best horses of all time to do similar, as Nashwan was an exception rather than the rule! Could well happen, but surely I'm fine in questioning the price.

How many horses would I be able to find that have won a maiden, then a listed race and then NOT gone on to win a Grade 1 next time out? More than the other way around? We both know that's the case...

I didn't even say Shiskin can't/won't win, I'm just questioning WHY the public/bookies are so adament he is going to be special. It isn't like it's the first time we've had a horse hyped up, but it does seem odd when there are viable alternatives?

I found your whole post quite patronising, almost like you think I'm a complete moron and have no concept of how this sport or gambling works? Especially this line....

"Grade 1’s aren’t only won by Grade 1 winning horses - Ridersonthestorm or Traffic Fluide vs Cyrname today."

The massive difference there is they weren't favourites were they, and Shiskin is! So it's not the same. If Riders Onthe Storm was priced fav against Cyrname, what would you have said? Would you have said that just because Cyrname has won Grade 1's doesn't mean he should be fav?


Bit patronising. I'd have taken offence to that if you'd have said it to my face

Question for you though, as you've daaaaays you've waited 2 months for Sporting John to put in a performance like that ... is he not a better bet at 10/1 NRNB than Shishkin is at 11/4 NRNB? Or are you firmly of the belief he's a Ballymore horse.

Up until today people seemed convinced Chantry House was going up in trip and connections have said they'll keep them apart.

[Unexposed]

Captain Guinness still remains of interest to me here at a nice price. Races far too freely last time but still very nearly beat a good prospect in Andy Dufresne. I think a big field and strong pace will be ideal.

[charlie]

“ He's won a Maiden and a Listed Race.
That is not worthy of being shorter than the Grade 1 horses as bare form?”

Nashwan only won a Maiden and a Listed race before winning the 2000 Guineas, Derby, Eclipse and King George, on the trot.
It didn’t stop the Guineas gamble on him being won.

I understand the arguments for horses that have won at higher grades than others, but don’t adopt this as a foolproof route to finding winners of specific races, and particularly when assessing Grade 1 horses against horses that haven’t even been tried at a higher level yet.

Grade 1’s aren’t only won by Grade 1 winning horses - Ridersonthestorm or Traffic Fluide vs Cyrname today.

Abacadabras has had four goes at Grade 1 level and one at Grade 2, and won once, against a mare rated 128.
I don’t think Abacadabras’s form is any better than Shishkin’s.

Aba’s best RPR is worse than Shishkin’s despite having repeated opportunities in a higher grade to post amazing figures, whilst Shishkin hasn’t had that opportunity yet.

What horses have won, or ran in, is a useful starting point, often a good finishing point, but never the deciding factor for me, particularly in novice races.

If I had to keep one of my Abacadabras and Shishkin bets and rip up the other, I know which one I would retain.

In the last half of this you make some fair points after the monstrosity of a sentence: ‘Grade 1’s aren’t only won by Grade 1 winning horses’

Re the first part, to say you understand the arguments for horses winning at different grades, and then urge others not to adopt this as a foolproof way of finding winners when assessing grade 1's is off the charts patronising, even more so when it’s in response to someone like Kev.

[Quevega]

In the last half of this you make some fair points after the

monstrosity of a sentence: ‘Grade 1’s aren’t only won by Grade 1 winning horses’

Re the first part, to say you understand the arguments for horses winning at different grades, and then urge others not to adopt this as a foolproof way of finding winners when assessing grade 1's is off the charts patronising, even more so when it’s in response to someone like Kev.

A true classic.

edit - I think I get what Sax meant though, it just needs the word previous added

[billymag]

Did Hobbs saying anything about Sporting John after he won on "sporting john Day", Ive got him down as a Supreme horse and Chantry as a Ballymore, Im any race for both but I think they would be more suited by those targets rather than going the reverse.