Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Kevloaf]

Using the hype word in this context is probably not fair.
An RPR is not hype.

Ummm, perhaps.

The RPR team aren't exactly bound by what they say though.... TF go a bit silly for a headline sometimes too?



I'll just remove the word so:

If you can't downplay things like that, you end up on every single bandwagon and although it's only around 10 years I've been doing this, I've seen enough horses not live up to expectations to make me at least question these kinds of ratings...

[Jrow]

Thanks kev

Regards RPR's and horses ratings in general, I think over time they have become inflated no doubt about that. But we can only work with the current facts and figures given to us.......(Of course, you can make your own adjustments)

I think being realistic works both ways too. I get that people have a tendency to air on the side of caution, especially in horse racing. But from my eye, AF made the opposition look very average rather than them actually being average (for grade 1 purposes).

Realistically (positively viewed), he has won one of the most relevant supreme trials convincingly and is trained by the right man. He has certainly achieved more than the current fav.

The negatives are his tendency to jump right and the jockey not being Ruby


p.s... in the context of hype, I think this is one of the first times for a good while that one of Mullins' is priced up based on what hes achieved on the track. He hasnt been a talking horse and was available at 33/1 only a few days before his latest start.

[Quevega]

Ummm, perhaps.

The RPR team aren't exactly bound by what they say though.... TF go a bit silly for a headline sometimes too?



I'll just remove the word so:

If you can't downplay things like that, you end up on every single bandwagon and although it's only around 10 years I've been doing this, I've seen enough horses not live up to expectations to make me at least question these kinds of ratings...

Not sure bandwagons right either

being suspicious of ratings is probably better, and not just following them blindly.

[Quevega]

Thanks kev

Regards RPR's and horses ratings in general, I think over time they have become inflated no doubt about that. But we can only work with the current facts and figures given to us.......(Of course, you can make your own adjustments)

I think being realistic works both ways too. I get that people have a tendency to air on the side of caution, especially in horse racing. But from my eye, AF made the opposition look very average rather than them actually being average (for grade 1 purposes).

Realistically (positively viewed), he has won one of the most relevant supreme trials convincingly and is trained by the right man. He has certainly achieved more than the current fav.

The negatives are his tendency to jump right and the jockey not being Ruby


p.s... in the context of hype, I think this is one of the first times for a good while that one of Mullins' is priced up based on what hes achieved on the track. He hasnt been a talking horse and was available at 33/1 only a few days before his latest start.

I'm on a similar wavelength to this Jrow.
can see the other side of it to be fair.

But this is pretty much how i see it too.

Welcome.

edit - I think the jumping right thing is something quite common with Leapardstown. A hell of a lot of them do it. Notebook actually shifts a bit right and not many have mentioned that.

[Pendil]

[QUOTE=Quevega;145948]

Just found it funny.
There's people on internet with there own business earning a living with worse systems ('value rater') for example.

Think you'd get a couple of years out of it at least.

Pendil's 'Tiered Racing System'

More like Pendils "Tired Racing System" it'll all end in tears

[charlie]

Thanks kev

Regards RPR's and horses ratings in general, I think over time they have become inflated no doubt about that. But we can only work with the current facts and figures given to us.......(Of course, you can make your own adjustments)

I think being realistic works both ways too. I get that people have a tendency to air on the side of caution, especially in horse racing. But from my eye, AF made the opposition look very average rather than them actually being average (for grade 1 purposes).

Realistically (positively viewed), he has won one of the most relevant supreme trials convincingly and is trained by the right man. He has certainly achieved more than the current fav.

The negatives are his tendency to jump right and the jockey not being Ruby

p.s... in the context of hype, I think this is one of the first times for a good while that one of Mullins' is priced up based on what hes achieved on the track. He hasnt been a talking horse and was available at 33/1 only a few days before his latest start.

But how hard is it to make Easywork and Mt Leinster look average? Mt Leinster has got his head in front once over hurdles beating Entoucas by 9L. Klassical Dream hammered Entoucas 31 lengths in the same race last year and I don’t see how Mt Leinster has form that gets him anywhere close to winning this. Beating Mt Leinster is arguably the best piece of form that Easywork has to offer as I don’t think beating Unexcepted & Discorama over too far and not far enough respectively, holds any weight for this either. Has AF made the opposition look average, or were the opposition that day just bang average? I have to side with the latter.

I think people will fall into the trap of over rating that form because it’s Willie and one of the most relevant supreme trials. You make a fair point about him being 33/1 only a few days before his latest start, but how often does a proper Mullins supreme horse go completely unnoticed in the market like that? Willie has come out afterwards and said he thought he was a 3 miler, Paul Townend chose Mt Leinster and there had clearly been little stable money for AF for this race. Of course, he could have just surprised them all and horses do that sometimes, I just thought it was collectively odd.

[jack1092]

But how hard is it to make Easywork and Mt Leinster look average? Mt Leinster has got his head in front once over hurdles beating Entoucas by 9L. Klassical Dream hammered Entoucas 31 lengths in the same race last year and I don’t see how Mt Leinster has form that gets him anywhere close to winning this. Beating Mt Leinster is arguably the best piece of form that Easywork has to offer as I don’t think beating Unexcepted & Discorama over too far and not far enough respectively, holds any weight for this either. Has AF made the opposition look average, or were the opposition that day just bang average? I have to side with the latter.

I think people will fall into the trap of over rating that form because it’s Willie and one of the most relevant supreme trials. You make a fair point about him being 33/1 only a few days before his latest start, but how often does a proper Mullins supreme horse go completely unnoticed in the market like that? Willie has come out afterwards and said he thought he was a 3 miler, Paul Townend chose Mt Leinster and there had clearly been little stable money for AF for this race. Of course, he could have just surprised them all and horses do that sometimes, I just thought it was collectively odd.

Good points Charlie- always good to have a bit of a balanced debate on horses. Townend chose Leinster but Ruby would've chosen Asterion Forlonge , he said that anyway. No doubt he was visually impressive.

When debating this race initially with a pal, he was very keen on Easywork + i was keener on Mt Leinster. My view on Easywork is he is very one dimensional and i think he needs to basically get his own way out in front. Obviously he hasn't raced long enough for this to be 100% proven, but i have a feeling he'll end up that type.
Mt Leinster obviously looked exposed in bumpers, but i think he was quite unfortunate in that Mullins didn't have any other bumper horses to throw at the races, so to just get runners he was running. Obviously, there was a bit of hype with him, probably down to getting more from the sale. I do think he's decent, not now grade 1 level. His jumping was costly, as i thought at one stage he'd get second, but was too clumsy.
I'd say Easywork +Leinster are g2/g3 novices rather than g1 and that has to be taken into account for all he's clearly smashed them.

The best form is Abacadabras currently, but do i think he'll be the winner? No, but then i am going against basically this whole forum with not fully subcribing to the Envoi Allen love in. I am not stupid enough to sit + say the form hasn't worked out very well so far though.

[Quevega]

But how hard is it to make Easywork and Mt Leinster look average? Mt Leinster has got his head in front once over hurdles beating Entoucas by 9L. Klassical Dream hammered Entoucas 31 lengths in the same race last year and I don’t see how Mt Leinster has form that gets him anywhere close to winning this. Beating Mt Leinster is arguably the best piece of form that Easywork has to offer as I don’t think beating Unexcepted & Discorama over too far and not far enough respectively, holds any weight for this either. Has AF made the opposition look average, or were the opposition that day just bang average? I have to side with the latter.

I think people will fall into the trap of over rating that form because it’s Willie and one of the most relevant supreme trials. You make a fair point about him being 33/1 only a few days before his latest start, but how often does a proper Mullins supreme horse go completely unnoticed in the market like that? Willie has come out afterwards and said he thought he was a 3 miler, Paul Townend chose Mt Leinster and there had clearly been little stable money for AF for this race. Of course, he could have just surprised them all and horses do that sometimes, I just thought it was collectively odd.

Using Entoucas's performance against Klassical Dream in the channelle last year, needs to be put in context.
In that he also finished 1 & 1/2 length behind Klassical dream in the race before that, and also 10 lengths behind Envoi Allen this season.

IMO the form of the chanelle is solid enough due to the 2 horses in behind pretty much running to the same level as when they met first time, both won there subsequent races easily, and both were considered good enough by their respected trainers to contest the best Novice hurdle over 2 miles outside of Cheltenham. They went off first and second Fav, and were battered by Asterion Forlonge who of the front three was the only one to be able to maintain the gallop.

The rest of the field were badly outpaced at halfway, only for one or two to stay on and get closer to the 2nd and 3rd.
Asterion Forlonge stretched his lead in the run in.

[germanshepherd]

You can pick apart the form but what was impressive is how he sustained that strong gallop he must have a good engine. Mt Leinster had every right to pick up the pieces but he couldn't.

[Quevega]

You can pick apart the form but what was impressive is how he sustained that strong gallop he must have a good engine. Mt Leinster had every right to pick up the pieces but he couldn't.

Yep, that's definitely what was most impressive if you're looking for s supreme winner.
It can easily get us going round in circles with the form of races, especially going back over a couple of seasons and different conditions etc etc etc.
Charlie and others who have expressed doubts may well be proven right, you just have to go with your own thought process and methods in the end.

[kinloch brae]

To add to the previous comments.

The reason I like the Dublin form vs the Royal Bond form is it looked more of a championship race.

They were strung out from a long way out at Dublin and looked to go very hard.
Whereas this was less so in the bond, and there were quite a few still travelling at the 2 furlong pole.

That's not to say that a horse like Abacardabras won't improve for a stronger pace (as he could benefit). It's just not proven to me and I personally don't think he would.

It wasn't run like a championship race. How could it be when there were only a handful of runners and effectively only two counted?

It was run like a Grade 2 race with two horses who would be better over further dominating the race. If that wasn't the case why ride them in that manner and have a potentially harder race than needed?

[Quevega]

It wasn't run like a championship race. How could it be when there were only a handful of runners and effectively only two counted?

It was run like a Grade 2 race with two horses who would be better over further dominating the race. If that wasn't the case why ride them in that manner and have a potentially harder race than needed?

You could have thrown in 10 others and not many would have made much difference.
And I’d say it’s good practice to ride them and see what they’re capable of.
Plenty of time to rest up now.

[charlie]

Using Entoucas's performance against Klassical Dream in the channelle last year, needs to be put in context.
In that he also finished 1 & 1/2 length behind Klassical dream in the race before that, and also 10 lengths behind Envoi Allen this season.

IMO the form of the chanelle is solid enough due to the 2 horses in behind pretty much running to the same level as when they met first time, both won there subsequent races easily, and both were considered good enough by their respected trainers to contest the best Novice hurdle over 2 miles outside of Cheltenham. They went off first and second Fav, and were battered by Asterion Forlonge who of the front three was the only one to be able to maintain the gallop.

The rest of the field were badly outpaced at halfway, only for one or two to stay on and get closer to the 2nd and 3rd.
Asterion Forlonge stretched his lead in the run in.

I don't think them running to form in the Chanelle gives AF much to beat, whereas you do, which is fair enough. We agree to disagree

Re outpaced, they weren’t badly outpaced turning in, let alone at half way. Asterion Forlonge has galloped them into submission impressively, but I don't think anything was outpaced. Danny is hard at work 2f out to keep up the gallop which AF does impressively, but he shaped like a horse that stayed strongly, rather than out sprinting them IMO. That's a huge asset going into a supreme, don't get me wrong (trying not to get into the stamina/speed debate again).

The question I ask myself is 'if Aba was in that race vs AF would he have won?', and I am confident he would have. They have both raced over 2m at Leopardstown (albeit inside v outside track) and I thought Aba was more impressive in his race. Danny is pushing AF hard 2f out to sustain the gallop, and its a gutsy win. Jack comes 2f out cruising on the snaff then sprints clear after the last. It was a more impressive win, with more in hand, in a better time and on worse ground. He has more overall experience, and Cheltenham experience.

I do really like AF, i just don't think he should be the same price as Aba.

[Quevega]

I don't think them running to form in the Chanelle gives AF much to beat, whereas you do, which is fair enough. We agree to disagree

Re outpaced, they weren’t badly outpaced turning in, let alone at half way. Asterion Forlonge has galloped them into submission impressively, but I don't think anything was outpaced. Danny is hard at work 2f out to keep up the gallop which AF does impressively, but he shaped like a horse that stayed strongly, rather than out sprinting them IMO. That's a huge asset going into a supreme, don't get me wrong (trying not to get into the stamina/speed debate again).

The question I ask myself is 'if Aba was in that race vs AF would he have won?', and I am confident he would have. They have both raced over 2m at Leopardstown (albeit inside v outside track) and I thought Aba was more impressive in his race. Danny is pushing AF hard 2f out to sustain the gallop, and its a gutsy win. Jack comes 2f out cruising on the snaff then sprints clear after the last. It was a more impressive win, with more in hand, in a better time and on worse ground. He has more overall experience, and Cheltenham experience.

I do really like AF, i just don't think he should be the same price as Aba.

The rest of the field (other 4 runners) were outpaced. I thought I made that clear.
The main three went clear a long way out and started racing very early so there was never going to be a sprint finish, and
that's unlikely in a supreme also.

You've got to be able to sustain a good gallop normally and then maintain it up the hill.
It's rare you get one cruise up on the snaff and then be able to kick (go up a gear) off that sort of pace. You might get one that looks like it's going to, but they rarely can. Unless they're exceptional.

The Aba form vs Asterion form and what pace they ran at is open to peoples perception. And will contribute to the confidence anyone would have selecting one or the other to win the supreme.

But the pace of the race in my eyes was far more aggressive (and sustained for longer) in the channelle vs the future champions and it is how the opponents fared that demonstrates this to me.
Abadacadabras hasn't gone that consistent gallop yet, so whilst he could do it, I'm happy to let him prove it.

[charlie]

The rest of the field (other 4 runners) were outpaced. I thought I made that clear.
The main three went clear a long way out and started racing very early so there was never going to be a sprint finish, and
that's unlikely in a supreme also.

You've got to be able to sustain a good gallop normally and then maintain it up the hill.
It's rare you get one cruise up on the snaff and then be able to kick (go up a gear) off that sort of pace. You might get one that looks like it's going to, but they rarely can. Unless they're exceptional.

The Aba form vs Asterion form and what pace they ran at is open to peoples perception. And will contribute to the confidence anyone would have selecting one or the other to win the supreme.

But the pace of the race in my eyes was far more aggressive (and sustained for longer) in the channelle vs the future champions and it is how the opponents fared that demonstrates this to me.
Abadacadabras hasn't gone that consistent gallop yet, so whilst he could do it, I'm happy to let him prove it.

Gordon said before and after the Royal Bond that a slow pace was the only thing that would beat EA, so EA set a very strong gallop. Setting aside what was said, a bunched field 3 furlongs out was suddenly strung out and demolished because the gallop was that strong, so I don't know where you've pulled 'Abadacadabras hasn't gone that consistent gallop yet' from.