Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[TCH29]

You backed for supreme or bally?

Hi mate, I have Chantry House 2pt at 27/1 Any Race from about 9 months ago. But genuinely, I think he’s a Ballymore horse. Everyone I was with here thought the same. 3rd last to the last fence is almost 2f here. It wasn’t down to a mistake, he was outpaced, BUT he had another gear under just hands and heels because he had more in the tank.

[Kevloaf]

Hi mate, I have Chantry House 2pt at 27/1 Any Race from about 9 months ago. But genuinely, I think he’s a Ballymore horse. Everyone I was with here thought the same. 3rd last to the last fence is almost 2f here. It wasn’t down to a mistake, he was outpaced, BUT he had another gear under just hands and heels because he had more in the tank.

I'm always a bit dubious about this accepted theory that you need stamina to win the Supreme and speed to win a Ballymore. (Iemphasise need, as I understand it, I'm just not sure it's the only factor)


Horses that win a Supreme go on to win over further, Ballymore horses have dropped in trip to win a Champion Hurdle.... but my point would be that whoever wins the Ballymore each year could probably have won or gone close in a Supreme and vica versa.


Last year, City Island won the Ballymore, and it looked like he did it by staying? By the accepted theory, he'd have also won the SUpreme, 'cos he'd have stayed best?




I hear this theory over and over and it's just taken as a given when a lot of the time I think it's just a lazy cliche.


The best novice would probably win either.... it's like Envoi Allen, Samcro, Vautour, Faugheen.... would you really have been AGAINST them if they'd have run in the opposite races at the festival? I doubt it.




Essentially, my point is....if Chantry House is getting outpaced in a 2 mile race, it doesn't mean he'll be good enough up in trip to win. It just must mean he's not got enough ability to win either.

Claiming his optimum may be over further is fine, but I don't think the margins in it are clear cut.

[Kautothegreat8]

I get bored talking about the difference in the supreme and the Ballymore. Supreme suits a stayer and the Ballymore suites speed. It’s all I’ve got to say on the matter.

[charlie]

All this need speed need stamina etc. Most supreme horses could go 2m5f and most ballymore horses could drop back to 2m. It’s about a comfort zone and what’s optimal, which is highly subjective, hence why we go round in circles debating it. Chantry House is literally case and point

[Kautothegreat8]

Hi mate, I have Chantry House 2pt at 27/1 Any Race from about 9 months ago. But genuinely, I think he’s a Ballymore horse. Everyone I was with here thought the same. 3rd last to the last fence is almost 2f here. It wasn’t down to a mistake, he was outpaced, BUT he had another gear under just hands and heels because he had more in the tank.

I can’t agree ........ he was slow at the 3rd last and in a matter of strides he back on the pace. Opinions I suppose

[Kevloaf]

I get bored talking about the difference in the supreme and the Ballymore. Supreme suits a stayer and the Ballymore suites speed. It’s all I’ve got to say on the matter.

Case closed then. Thanks for the comment

[Kevloaf]

All this need speed need stamina etc. Most supreme horses could go 2m5f and most ballymore horses could drop back to 2m. It’s about a comfort zone and what’s optimal, which is highly subjective, hence why we go round in circles debating it. Chantry House is literally case and point

The problem is as well, that hindsight often comes into the arguement.

Vautour for example, clearly ended up being superb over further....

On that though, horses just get bigger and stronger and that lends itself to getting further over time.


A novices optimum may be 2 miles, and that is why the Supreme may LOOK like it's a race littered with Stamina horses.





I'm just saying it's not as black and white as I feel that theory is made out to be.

[charlie]

The problem is as well, that hindsight often comes into the arguement.

Vautour for example, clearly ended up being superb over further....

On that though, horses just get bigger and stronger and that lends itself to getting further over time.

A novices optimum may be 2 miles, and that is why the Supreme may LOOK like it's a race littered with Stamina horses.

I'm just saying it's not as black and white as I feel that theory is made out to be.

Yeh hindsight just adds to an already highly subjective debate and complicated equation. What people have backed tends to inform opinion heavily too . Joe public tends to take the view that because Chantry House has only run over 2m, it means that must be his optimum trip.

[Saxon Warrior]

If everything was simple regarding each and every “Supreme v Ballymore” debate, then the number of pages on this thread would be very small

Thank goodness there’s a home for ‘opinion’, and long may it remain.

[charlie]

If everything was simple regarding each and every “Supreme v Ballymore” debate, then the number of pages on this thread would be very small

Thank goodness there’s a home for ‘opinion’, and long may it remain.

Next year we should have specific threads to debate targets. ‘Novice Hurdler Targets’ for example. A must no mods?

[Quevega]

Next year we should have specific threads to debate targets. ‘Novice Hurdler Targets’ for example. A must no mods?

Brilliant idea.
I'd slightly rename the title though to..

Speculation on Novice hurdle targets.

Any firm trainer comments can be put in the normal thread.
Then I can completely ignore the other.

[punterorplonker]

"Barry said you could go either way at Cheltenham," said Henderson.

"We know he stays and he's got speed. You've got to stay in both races, so I think we'll have a look at them.

"I'd be surprised if he didn't want another half-mile, but Barry said he races very sweetly and is not aggressive in any way – you just press the button and it works."

Henderson added: "You've got to be pleased with what he did. He's very straightforward and is a chaser in the making, only starting out in life. He's in the same mould as Shishkin and they've got futures whatever happens."

[Kevloaf]

"Barry said you could go either way at Cheltenham," said Henderson.

"We know he stays and he's got speed. You've got to stay in both races, so I think we'll have a look at them.

"I'd be surprised if he didn't want another half-mile, but Barry said he races very sweetly and is not aggressive in any way – you just press the button and it works."

Henderson added: "You've got to be pleased with what he did. He's very straightforward and is a chaser in the making, only starting out in life. He's in the same mould as Shishkin and they've got futures whatever happens."

Positive comments, roll on Sporting John tomorrow and maybe it'll give them one of those 'good problems'.

[charlie]

"Barry said you could go either way at Cheltenham," said Henderson.

"We know he stays and he's got speed. You've got to stay in both races, so I think we'll have a look at them.

"I'd be surprised if he didn't want another half-mile, but Barry said he races very sweetly and is not aggressive in any way – you just press the button and it works."

Henderson added: "You've got to be pleased with what he did. He's very straightforward and is a chaser in the making, only starting out in life. He's in the same mould as Shishkin and they've got futures whatever happens."

Nicky said at the start of the season he wants to keep them apart, so him saying post race he wants another half-mile isn't really news or surprising. Nicky will want to spread his options, understandably, but will ultimately do what he is told by JP.

[BigChaang]

Positive comments, roll on Sporting John tomorrow and maybe it'll give them one of those 'good problems'.

Be Surprised if Exeter's on , with the storm ??.
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