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I think the win on Sunday was probably better than Aba's form but it's difficult to be certain.
There was no hiding place in Sunday's race, with AF and Easywork going at it from a long way out until EW had had enough. Mt Leinster is a decent horse and he couldn't land a blow. It's the nature of the victory, more than the bare form, that impressed me.
It is hard to tell. The handicapper's thoughts are clear having given AF 153 & Aba 149, so maybe I am wrong. Its an interesting one and definitely open to interpretation. I can certainly see both sides and both have raced at Leopardstown over 2m. I just thought Aba was a bit more impressive (for all I know the outside track is easier than the inside). Danny is hard at work on AF 2F out whilst Jack is pretty much motionless and he comes alongside Heaven Help Us and then puts the race to bed in a matter of strides. Just looked to have a lot left in the tank, but who knows.
Be interesting to see what happens in half an hour re Shishkin. Got a feeling he will either piss up the snaff super impressively or he will flop completely and that will be that.
envoi allen isn't just a stayer is he. he'd be a short fav for the supreme.
Honestly, I think his best chance is in the Ballymore, and my returns for the race for him don't differ an awful lot from a single bet perspective.
There seems to be a lot (not just on this forum, but Twitter also) being made out of how close Envoi Allen and Abacadabras were in the Royal Bond (a race that historically produces more staying types for the festival), but what if it's just a case of Envoi Allen not being as effective over 2m, and say that was true, what does that then do to the form of Abacadabras?
So many people I have spoken to outside of this forum keep referring to the Envoi Allen form line, which I think is a little dangerous to hang on to myself.
Look away from the Royal Bond, and what has he beat? Heaven Help Us, whilst he won most convincingly, as he should, she's since got beat in a pretty crap Mares Novice Hurdle by 4 3/4, that's dreadful, for a Supreme hope.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 6 February 2020, 02:19 PM.
It is hard to tell. The handicapper's thoughts are clear having given AF 153 & Aba 149, so maybe I am wrong. Its an interesting one and definitely open to interpretation. I can certainly see both sides and both have raced at Leopardstown over 2m. I just thought Aba was a bit more impressive (for all I know the outside track is easier than the inside). Danny is hard at work on AF 2F out whilst Jack is pretty much motionless and he comes alongside Heaven Help Us and then puts the race to bed in a matter of strides. Just looked to have a lot left in the tank, but who knows.
Be interesting to see what happens in half an hour re Shishkin. Got a feeling he will either piss up the snaff super impressively or he will flop completely and that will be that.
You'd be disappointed if a Supreme contender couldn't put HHU to bed without breaking sweat Charlie! It would be the form from the Fairyhouse win i'd be using lol
Honestly, I think his best chance is in the Ballymore, and my returns for the race for him don't differ an awful lot from a single bet perspective.
There seems to a lot (not just on this forum, but Twitter also) being made out of how close Envoi Allen and Abacadabras were in the Royal Bond (a race that historically produces more staying types for the festival), but what if it's just a case of Envoi Allen not being as effective over 2m, and say that was true, what does that then do to the form of Abacadabras?
So many people I have spoken to outside of this forum keep referring to the Envoi Allen form line, which I think is a little dangerous to hang on to myself.
Look away from the Royal Bond, and what has he beat? Heaven Help Us, his most recent bit of form got beat in a pretty crap Mares Novice Hurdle by 4 3/4, that's dreadful, for a Supreme hope.
It's a good question. I think the first thing to acknowledge though is that Abacadabras was winning with untold amounts in hand on debut, vs Latest Exhibition and LTO in the grade 1 vs Heaven Help Us. I would urge anyone looking at what he's beat to also note the manner in which he has beaten them, because there is clearly a lot left.
I get your point re Envoi Allen, but he's clocked a quicker time than horses who have gone on to win supreme's that season, and champion hurdles the following season, so is it really a dangerous form line to hang on when you consider EA reputation?
Honestly, I think his best chance is in the Ballymore, and my returns for the race for him don't differ an awful lot from a single bet perspective.
There seems to be a lot (not just on this forum, but Twitter also) being made out of how close Envoi Allen and Abacadabras were in the Royal Bond (a race that historically produces more staying types for the festival), but what if it's just a case of Envoi Allen not being as effective over 2m, and say that was true, what does that then do to the form of Abacadabras?
So many people I have spoken to outside of this forum keep referring to the Envoi Allen form line, which I think is a little dangerous to hang on to myself.
Look away from the Royal Bond, and what has he beat? Heaven Help Us, whilst he won most convincingly, as he should, she's since got beat in a pretty crap Mares Novice Hurdle by 4 3/4, that's dreadful, for a Supreme hope.
Envoi has 153 RPR for both of those runs he's just as effective. didn't exactly hit the line hard at naas.
He didnt know he had a race , he dispatched them with ease ,and the second no mug. Purely on evidence of last two races , id be pretty confident he goes Supreme , certainly going to take a good one to beat him.
Envoi has 153 RPR for both of those runs he's just as effective. didn't exactly hit the line hard at naas.
Asterion Forlonge is 156 having had one less hurdle start, you're just backing him up more than EA, by using RPRs, IMO. Even more reason for EA to avoid Asterion, not the other way around.
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