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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

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  • Segal puts up Aba today.

    Yet on Monday he said Envoi Allen was the biggest lay of the festival.

    I’m confused.

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    • Originally posted by Innoko View Post
      Segal puts up Aba today.

      Yet on Monday he said Envoi Allen was the biggest lay of the festival.

      I’m confused.
      His point (although clumsy hysterical and school boyishly made) was that the price is far too short when you consider the likely dangers in a race like the Ballymore in comparison to relatively small field graded races in Ireland.

      Essentially the field's chances vs Envoi Allen is going to be at it's strongest you'd imagine.
      There will be other unbeaten and/or improving horses coming up against him and in a novice race it is a short price.

      Obviously I've backed him at 5/4 (in a double)

      Comment


      • Can someone have a go at getting cash outs turned back on for Abra please? No reason it should be suspended.....

        Comment


        • Originally posted by The Don View Post
          Can someone have a go at getting cash outs turned back on for Abra please? No reason it should be suspended.....
          They wont.. Theyve said its a trading decision

          Comment


          • Stuck my sky free bet on Fix Sun for this.

            The double green don’t look like they have much if anything else for this race, Paddy’s have him shortest at 25/1 (I think).

            Entered in listed novice hurdle at Exeter Sunday and looks a fairly hot race should most stand their ground. A win makes it a decent stab, loses, nothing lost really.

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            • Originally posted by darlojim View Post
              They wont.. Theyve said its a trading decision
              After they ballsed up offered 16/1 post EA defeat which was 8/1 within hours I reckon their liabilities must be pretty high on Aba

              Comment


              • Originally posted by charlie View Post
                After they ballsed up offered 16/1 post EA defeat which was 8/1 within hours I reckon their liabilities must be pretty high on Aba
                Cash out has been available a long time after they moved him to 16s after the defeat to EA. He's actually drifted recently meaning our cashouts are less than before. I do feel it's just an unfair decision based on puling him out of last weekend (i.e injured). Bookies do what they want I guess. ��

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                • Could always lay him on the exchange if you are desperate to cash him out? Actually better value also.

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                  • Originally posted by Innoko View Post
                    Could always lay him on the exchange if you are desperate to cash him out? Actually better value also.
                    So many people miss this.
                    Cashout is rarely value unless you are ahead of the market re NR announcements, doing your maths will almost always make exchange lays a better value exit strategy than your cash out offer, especially for multi’s...

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                    • Shishkin declared for the Sidney Banks tomorrow.

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                      • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                        So many people miss this.
                        Cashout is rarely value unless you are ahead of the market re NR announcements, doing your maths will almost always make exchange lays a better value exit strategy than your cash out offer, especially for multi’s...
                        There are times you can use it to your advantage though.

                        As an example when 365 were 3-1 Aba, which was by far the worst price available. I cashed for 2-1 my stake knowing I could back elsewhere at 11/2 thus giving a better return if I wanted. Or wait until 365 adjusted their price in line with others and re-back.

                        Turns out I've done neither as I've changed my view since other horses have run.

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                        • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                          Shishkin declared for the Sidney Banks tomorrow.
                          Cheers COD. Doubt we'll learn much

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by charlie View Post
                            Cheers COD. Doubt we'll learn much
                            I actually thought for Huntingdon on a Thursday we'd learn more than expected.

                            Shan Blue no mug back over a shorter trip.

                            Hang in There + Pacify with pens shouldn't be too hard to beat, but the former definitely didn't run his race LTO.

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                            • Shishkin is one of five horses declared, and Henderson sees the Listed contest over two miles, three and a half furlongs as the ideal prep for the Supreme.
                              “I think he is a good horse, now he has got to go and do it again,” said the Seven Barrows handler.
                              “We are going two-miles-three, but that ought to suit him well round there. You have got to stay well round Cheltenham.
                              “Nico (de Boinville) mentioned the Ballymore for him, but I’m of the opinion of the two-mile race.
                              “He looked very good last time, considering the ground – you don’t often see horses quicken up like that in very soft ground and they tell me it was a very good time.
                              “He has done everything right.”

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                              • Starting to look like AF and Shiskin in the Supreme and The Big Getaway in the Ballymore to me.

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