Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Splinterboy82]

The market was miles off anyway. Windy market to begin with. Now challengers have started winning its correcting the whole market.

Whilst I take your point on board about an overly short priced fav, the market does not go 7/2 out to 7/1 in just over a week, 6 weeks out from the supreme when the horse has not run ‘just to corrrct the market’ - if anything they’d be doing that after the DRF & linking into NRNB across the board from past experience. The bookies are not really working to over rounds this far out & will have laid him at double figure prices so why are they all so desperate to get it in the book? If you compare to EA (where they perceive target elsewhere) this is similar - I’m sorry but on previous and all known info this isn’t just a market correction IMO....time will tell either way!

[Quevega]

Whilst I take your point on board about an overly short priced fav, the market does not go 7/2 out to 7/1 in just over a week, 6 weeks out from the supreme when the horse has not run ‘just to corrrct the market’ - if anything they’d be doing that after the DRF & linking into NRNB across the board from past experience. The bookies are not really working to over rounds this far out & will have laid him at double figure prices so why are they all so desperate to get it in the book? If you compare to EA (where they perceive target elsewhere) this is similar - I’m sorry but on previous and all known info this isn’t just a market correction IMO....time will tell either way!

The price has drifted with the antepost bookmakers only.
This is simply because he is not running at the weekend and at least two of the runners will enhance their prospects and price will shorten accordingly, it's just making space really.

[charlie]

A price proves nothing at all. The result is the proof.

No, the current price (7/1) vs the price one month ago (7/2) proves the market was miles off. The race will obviously prove the outcome, but drastic price moves off seemingly nothing tend to suggest the price was too short.

I hope nothing is wrong, big drift

[germanshepherd]

No, the current price (7/1) vs the price one month ago (7/2) proves the market was miles off. The race will obviously prove the outcome, but drastic price moves off seemingly nothing tend to suggest the price was too short.

I hope nothing is wrong, big drift

he was always around 5.00 on bfex. that was the right price at the time. drift started after shiskin won.

he's had 4 runs. trainer and jockey have said he's fine don't see what the problem is.

[charlie]

he was always around 5.00 on bfex. that was the right price at the time. drift started after shiskin won.

he's had 4 runs. trainer and jockey have said he's fine don't see what the problem is.

Hopefully its nothing, probably an over reaction to not running at DRF

[billymag]

Could see him shortening after the weekend in his box, as people expect too much from the ones actually running.

[Quevega]

Could see him shortening after the weekend in his box, as people expect too much from the ones actually running.

What are they going to do,
Run backwards ??

Only chance that happens is if one of the rags wins.

[MadeinJapan]

Having taken a look again at the entries for this & only so far having Fly Smart at big odds on a flyer & Captain Guinness e/w for 1pt, I think I’m going to add Blue Sari. He might not be quite good enough to win but I can imagine he’ll be placed at least (never been out of first 4 in all runs), certainly when Slybet/Billies go first 7 e/w too.

I know he was squarely beaten last time out by the favourite for this, however some of Willie’s appeared to be needing the run then & the reports after read “trainer & jockey reported he was blowing hard”. He’s got previous Festival form having finished 2nd it last year’s bumper to Envoi Allen, going down by 3/4 of a length so he’ll get up the hill, he’s used to the hurly burly of the Festival & won’t be phased by the curtain opener shenanigans.

He’s 30s for this & 210 for the Ballymore on the Exchange so suggests he’ll go here. Billies have him priced at 66s for the double this weekend & the Supreme. He might not win this weekend & we’ll find out more then but there could be a large improvement than last time out.

I like having 2 at big prices usually e/w for the Supreme so I’m going to add him e/w. McManus might have Chantry House for this & Unexcepted could be going handicapping but I think he could be slightly overlooked. He ticks a fair few boxes even if he has to improve, I’m hoping he can.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Keith Donoghue has confirmed on his blog today that Abacadabras is fine and working well at home. They just don’t feel he needs the run. I hope this helps those of you on him relax.

[TCH29]

Keith Donoghue has confirmed on his blog today that Abacadabras is fine and working well at home. They just don’t feel he needs the run. I hope this helps those of you on him relax.

Good man. Thanks

[jack1092]

Could see him shortening after the weekend in his box, as people expect too much from the ones actually running.

Only way that happens is if they finish in a line with an outsider in there, or the outsider wins surely. Also, yes the Envoi Allen run looks decent, but lets be honest, you'd be disappointed if at least 2 couldn't over HHU like he did.

[billymag]

What are they going to do,
Run backwards ??

Only chance that happens is if one of the rags wins.

yes if they ran backwards it would probably not help their strength in the antepost market and as a knock-on effect it could strengthen other horses in the market not running, good point hadnt even factored in the running backwards senario! lol

[Pendil]

In Dublin for the DRF. Rumours about of runny noses in Elliott yard. Plenty of time before Chelt. but I will be watching with interest. Not put me of backing COF and Easywork mind

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Does Sporting John come here or the Ballymore?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Does Sporting John come here or the Ballymore?

I'd imagine the decision will be left late FTM