Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[charlie]

After initially watching his maiden win I was looking to crab the form... a natural reaction when you’ve made a betting mistake. Since then, I’ve watched countless reruns and have been a little more impressed each time.

Cheers pal. The first thing to acknowledge is his current price is way too short. If I wasn't on already I wouldn't touch 4/1 because there's not an ounce of value in it. Re form, I've never understood why people 'crab the form' of weak races won with ludicrous amounts in hand, which Shishkin has done twice (obviously he fell on debut). By all means crab jumping, being green, racing too keenly etc etc, but when a horse scoots clear with loads in hand in an easy race, what does the form really tell you?

The issue nowadays is bookmakers slash prices in the absence of form, which makes finding value that bit harder, so its a constant balancing act. In the case of Shishkin, his price has been cut to a point where people are almost forced into two brackets. The first being 'he's beat nothing and is 4/1, no thanks', and the second being 'we don't know how good he is yet but he looks very good'.

[Quevega]

I got involved last weekend NRNB and have been topping up with freebies as think as Q has said his price is still likely to go one way if he wins well next time (tomorrow?). I know a few not on mentioned waiting for offers on the day, the problem is 7 places or money back offers aren’t so great on a potentially 7/4 shot

Exactly why I backed at the Muggy price of 5-1.
Wouldn't have been happy having to back at much shorter.
Could bite me in the arse though if he don't win well the next run.
And to be fair, when the dust settles on the day, even if he wins well in his prep, he should still be around the 4-1 mark. But might go silly short.

[ComplyOrDie]

Exactly why I backed at the Muggy price of 5-1.
Wouldn't have been happy having to back at much shorter.
Could bite me in the arse though if he don't win well the next run.
And to be fair, when the dust settles on the day, even if he wins well in his prep, he should still be around the 4-1 mark. But might go silly short.

I think, should he win next time out you'll be looking at 5/2-11/4 tops myself.

That said, SkyBet will likely be running their 'Money Back' offer for the Supreme (I hope), which gives everyone the chance to have a crack at those they haven't already covered, or indeed go in on the ones they do fancy further.

[delsie777]

I am going in on Asterion Forlonge for this race before DRF decs. I know the popular opinion has been that he wants further, but I was taken with him the last day and his ability to stay a bit further is a benefit to my mind.

Since that day I have just had a feeling he might end up here. I'm very likely wrong but a good performance over the minimum trip this weekend might well force their hand.

Backed him eachway at 12/1 for this weekend and he has already been clipped in when not declared for the 2m6f race. Also nibbled away on the exchange at stupid win only prices and will now back at 33/1 eachway with 365 for the Supreme - with cash out... hopefully … if he bombs out. The NRNB price is half that but even 14/1 could look big should he end up here.

[AnFiieLD.]

I am going in on Asterion Forlonge for this race before DRF decs. I know the popular opinion has been that he wants further, but I was taken with him the last day and his ability to stay a bit further is a benefit to my mind.

Since that day I have just had a feeling he might end up here. I'm very likely wrong but a good performance over the minimum trip this weekend might well force their hand.

Backed him eachway at 12/1 for this weekend and he has already been clipped in when not declared for the 2m6f race. Also nibbled away on the exchange at stupid win only prices and will now back at 33/1 eachway with 365 for the Supreme - with cash out... hopefully … if he bombs out. The NRNB price is half that but even 14/1 could look big should he end up here.

I’m in the same boat. Mullins saying Big Getaway in the same ownership will run in the Ballymore so I can’t imagine AF will run over 2m here and then be stepped up to the Albert Bartlett at the festival.

[AnFiieLD.]

Declarations for the 2m novice hurdle on Sunday. No Abacadabras

Asterion Forlonge
Conflated
Easy work
Jason the militant
Mt Leinster
Blue Sari
The little yank

[jack1092]

Lovely decs. Elliot helping the yard out once more giving them the heads up. Modern day Robin Hood.

[charlie]

Declarations for the 2m novice hurdle on Sunday. No Abacadabras

Asterion Forlonge
Conflated
Easy work
Jason the militant
Mt Leinster
Blue Sari
The little yank

Elliott added: "Abacadabras has had four runs over hurdles and we've decided he doesn't need another run before Cheltenham."

[ComplyOrDie]

Had to add Asterion Forlonge based on the entry. 33/1 E/W with cash out available still.

[charlie]

Elliott added: "Abacadabras has had four runs over hurdles and we've decided he doesn't need another run before Cheltenham."

What do Aba backers think of this? Don't know if my inclination to think its good Gordon would prefer to save him as a realistic Cheltenham winner is an accurate assessment

[darlojim]

What do Aba backers think of this? Don't know if my inclination to think its good Gordon would prefer to save him as a realistic Cheltenham winner is an accurate assessment

At least he hasnt mentioned an injury and personally feel he has enough experience now with the 4 runs. Do we think hes not injured still though? Gordon didnt exactly shout to the heavens with regards to Malone Rd did he?

[SuperTiger]

What do Aba backers think of this? Don't know if my inclination to think its good Gordon would prefer to save him as a realistic Cheltenham winner is an accurate assessment

Doesn't worry me at all - Gordon obviously thinks him and EA are fine without the run

[jack1092]

What do Aba backers think of this? Don't know if my inclination to think its good Gordon would prefer to save him as a realistic Cheltenham winner is an accurate assessment

Not a backer, but better they go with their chances intact than to go beaten LTO. Which imo, could well have happened come Sunday.

[Innoko]

Personally, would of preferred him to run, and known my fate before the festival.

But Gordon knows best.

[Craigy14]

I am going in on Asterion Forlonge for this race before DRF decs. I know the popular opinion has been that he wants further, but I was taken with him the last day and his ability to stay a bit further is a benefit to my mind.

Since that day I have just had a feeling he might end up here. I'm very likely wrong but a good performance over the minimum trip this weekend might well force their hand.

Backed him eachway at 12/1 for this weekend and he has already been clipped in when not declared for the 2m6f race. Also nibbled away on the exchange at stupid win only prices and will now back at 33/1 eachway with 365 for the Supreme - with cash out... hopefully … if he bombs out. The NRNB price is half that but even 14/1 could look big should he end up here.

Done the exact same mate after him being confirmed for the 2m Sunday.

Got the 33/1 and cashed Bally for full stake so no harm done either.