Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[ComplyOrDie]

It's being talked about because not everyone backed the horse for the Ballymore based on his bumper runs. He has looked anything but a Ballymore horse this season and his target from the moment he bolted up (and looked a much quicker model) at Down Royal shouldn't have been anything other than the Supreme.

His maiden win should not be taken as literal, otherwise Samcro would have found himself in the Supreme, despite him going up in trip then down in trip, before finally going back up in trip for the Ballymore.

His Royal Bond win over 2m was probably not as good as first thought, with 145 and 141 rated horses back in 3rd and 4th, just 2 1/2 and 6 1/2 lengths behind, with EA and Abacadabras going at it up front.

It's all opinions, but I wonder how many on here would back Elixir D'Ainay or Longhouse Poet (whom he beat at Naas) over Darver Star and Turnpike Trip, if they ever met.

You don't set a target last season and then not adapt to more recent evidence, or at least you shouldn't. Those who have supported him for the Ballymore have been very fortunate to have Elliott on their side.

Who said they set a target last season? Because it wasn't me.

[punterorplonker]

Hi guys....sorry for starting the EA debate again last night. I was more looking at from Hobbs side in terms of Thyme. Dicky responded to me on Twitter last night. I will show u what I mean later. To busy with work atm.

[TCH29]

I accept the ground argument on the day, Q. You look out for the horse’s welfare first.

I still stand by my point that any deliberate misleading of targets by trainers is poor form and bad for the sport, as is allowing the bookies to become aware, or making them aware before making a public statement, a la Hendo.

Now, obviously I still hope EA goes Ballymore, and think he still will on all “known” evidence, and because I believe the yard’s money is down. That is why I began my original post with “if”.

[Muswell]

https://status.hri-ras.ie/declaration-status.aspx

8 declared in the Lacy for 7 trainers so only 2 likely for Gordon assume Fury Road is one of them

[Humble Pie]

I couldn't give a shit which race Envoi Allen runs in. I'm not heavily involved in him as I didn't want to back a bumper winner at 10-1 or shorter 6 months from the race. So have never got involved barring very small stake speculative doubles and a saver on the supreme cos they left 20-1 for ages.
Although I'd find it more amusing if he turned up in the supreme. Only slightly amusing though as I'd like some of the devotees to get paid off, ideally not at my expense though
But Kinloch is correct that the new evidence is a factor. And the key difference in my opinion between this scenario and Samcro's novice season was Gordon constantly stated that the Ballymore was the target for Samcro.
With Envoi Allen this has not been the case, he has mentioned he will be stepped up in trip and will likely be better for it, and he has mentioned the Ballymore as a likely destination (mentioning Cheltenham races was more at the beginning though before the season began).
He appears to have been at pains to not mention a Cheltenham specific race target since Envoi rocked up first time this season.
So I don't think anyone could criticise him this year if the horse did run in the supreme.

I think the moves in the supreme market are nothing to do with Envoi Allen though and just a market correction like Scooby suggested, and also the information some bookmakers appear to have got about the likely entries for the Dublin races.

He'll still go for the Ballymore more than likely as it does appear the yard may be involved.
But as I've stated before if it came up heavy, they may change their mind.
Gordon will be hoping that whoever he enters for the 2 miler this weekend can win for him, which would leave him with another ace to play. I hope it's Easywork, and I think so does Gordon.

I also think that depending on the results this weekend, we might get put out of our misery, and Gordon will start talking targets more specifically I reckon. He is a natural Blurt after all.

Dear Voice of Reason

Many many a time I have agreed with you on here , fact

I personally couldn’t give a shit about your comments in your first paragraph.

I derive no pleasure from the misfortune of others , you did slightly rescue yourself with “ only slightly amusing “

As for which race is best suited then ground conditions are a huge factor and if heavy have a huge concern that he will see out the Ballymore trip and I think Supreme is more winnable

Rightly wrongly after Gordo’s comments I’ve cashed out most of my Supreme 20’s but I don’t find your comments “ amusing “

Yours in racing

Your EX psycho pant pant pant

PS
Before you respond YES I am up to my bollocks in EA Ballymore

and
YES I am concerned of switch , which leaves me hardly any wriggle room

[kinloch brae]

I accept the ground argument on the day, Q. You look out for the horse’s welfare first.

I still stand by my point that any deliberate misleading of targets by trainers is poor form and bad for the sport, as is allowing the bookies to become aware, or making them aware before making a public statement, a la Hendo.

Now, obviously I still hope EA goes Ballymore, and think he still will on all “known” evidence, and because I believe the yard’s money is down. That is why I began my original post with “if”.

Yard punting a horse dictating targets? How can that be a good thing? You only have to ask the question as to why Betfair/Power went 20/1 (double everyone else) after Down Royal. They obviously believed/knew the path was already set in stone.

Personally, I don't think Envoi Allen is a certainty for either race but I think the shorter distance affords him the best chance of winning. I think his win last time was more worrying than impressive. He travelled well enough but the way he failed to go away left some doubt as to whether he was still on an upward curve.

[Splinterboy82]

I'd be surprised if Unexcepted didn't go down the handicap route myself, JP owned horses aren't campaigned the same way as others?

Unexcepted declared for the big 2m hcap hurdle - runs off 10:12 with a 3 miler running for the owner off top weight to keep them down! Mark Walsh already jocked up - what price does this thing go off?!....and then does this become JPs no1 for supreme? As a Chantry House backer that slightly concerns me but appreciate he runs multiple in supreme in most cases anyway!

[Humble Pie]

Yard punting a horse dictating targets? How can that be a good thing? You only have to ask the question as to why Betfair/Power went 20/1 (double everyone else) after Down Royal. They obviously believed/knew the path was already set in stone.

Personally, I don't think Envoi Allen is a certainty for either race but I think the shorter distance affords him the best chance of winning. I think his win last time was more worrying than impressive. He travelled well enough but the way he failed to go away left some doubt as to whether he was still on an upward curve.

Have to agree with all of that

[ComplyOrDie]

Unexcepted declared for the big 2m hcap hurdle - runs off 10:12 with a 3 miler running for the owner off top weight to keep them down! Mark Walsh already jocked up - what price does this thing go off?!....and then does this become JPs no1 for supreme? As a Chantry House backer that slightly concerns me but appreciate he runs multiple in supreme in most cases anyway!

He's already JP's (and potentially WPM's) number one, IMO. But that could easily come crashing back down again should he not win this handicap, which I expect him too also.

Against some experienced horses, but his jumping is the one think I wouldn't be worried about, so should lose barely anything in that area. Just needs to show he is good enough.

[Quevega]

Dear Voice of Reason

Many many a time I have agreed with you on here , fact

I personally couldn’t give a shit about your comments in your first paragraph.

I derive no pleasure from the misfortune of others , you did slightly rescue yourself with “ only slightly amusing “

As for which race is best suited then ground conditions are a huge factor and if heavy have a huge concern that he will see out the Ballymore trip and I think Supreme is more winnable

Rightly wrongly after Gordo’s comments I’ve cashed out most of my Supreme 20’s but I don’t find your comments “ amusing “

Yours in racing

Your EX psycho pant pant pant

PS
Before you respond YES I am up to my bollocks in EA Ballymore

and
YES I am concerned of switch , which leaves me hardly any wriggle room

If it helps, you're one of the devotees.
But I'm not a fan of wishing people luck if they've backed a different horse to me.
I find it a little bit disingenuous.

Like when a boxer wishes his opponent good luck, (he doesn't really mean it does he ?, at least not more luck than he wishes for himself)
That's not to say he wishes any harm or ill fortune though.

[Humble Pie]

If it helps, you're one of the devotees.
But I'm not a fan of wishing people luck if they've backed a different horse to me.
I find it a little bit disingenuous.

Like when a boxer wishes his opponent good luck, (he doesn't really mean it does he ?, at least not more luck than he wishes for himself)
That's not to say he wishes any harm or ill fortune though.

Soft words butter no parsnips Q

I’m not wishing anyone luck against my selections and didn’t state that

What I would say is if I don’t win then I hope a Forum member backed the winner

Your analogy of boxers saying “ good luck ?”

Been to amateur and professional fights and never heard that

The ref may say something along those lines ?

Anyway you stroppy bastard I’m still a devotee

[Quevega]

Soft words butter no parsnips Q

I’m not wishing anyone luck against my selections and didn’t state that

What I would say is if I don’t win then I hope a Forum member backed the winner

Your analogy of boxers saying “ good luck ?”

Been to amateur and professional fights and never heard that

The ref may say something along those lines ?

Anyway you stroppy bastard I’m still a devotee

Much prefer a honey glaze on my parsnips. Can taste a bit woody otherwise.
I think the analogy was understandable.
Stroppy ??
Love that.
Not known for it but interesting to note if that's the way it comes across on occasion's.

Let's be really honest,
If Envoi Allen gets overtaken just before the last in the Ballymore, I guarantee all his backers will be hoping the horse that's overtook him falls. Even if it's just a split second thought. They'll have that thought.
Don't make them evil though or unkind.

[Humble Pie]

Much prefer a honey glaze on my parsnips. Can taste a bit woody otherwise.
I think the analogy was understandable.
Stroppy ??
Love that.
Not known for it but interesting to note if that's the way it comes across on occasion's.

Let's be really honest,
If Envoi Allen gets overtaken just before the last in the Ballymore, I guarantee all his backers will be hoping the horse that's overtook him falls. Even if it's just a split second thought. They'll have that thought.
Don't make them evil though or unkind.

Parsnips , early season , quality , not end of season woodies Q

Kevlaaaa will be pulling his hair out reading these non racing posts but it’s good to break up threads on occasions

“ let’s be honest “ always You’re either honest or not

Last fence faller after just being headed?....

OF COURSE

Getting a tad edgy on EA , was concerned about how he finished off over extended trip , was he idling , how much left in the tank ?

Gotta a gorgeous 20 month GSD bitch looking for her second walk !

[Leman14]

Fly Smart has been entered in the Supreme (and the Ballymore)
The dream is still alive...

[Muswell]

No Dufresne