Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Pendil]

Kinloch, that view would be fine if Elliot hadn’t spent the whole winter saying EA would be stepped up in trip (and duly doing so). Having said and done that, he’s made a rod for his own back.

Have you got quotes for that TCH?

[Scooby91]

It's being talked about because not everyone backed the horse for the Ballymore based on his bumper runs. He has looked anything but a Ballymore horse this season and his target from the moment he bolted up (and looked a much quicker model) at Down Royal shouldn't have been anything other than the Supreme. You don't set a target last season and then not adapt to more recent evidence, or at least you shouldn't. Those who have supported him for the Ballymore have been very fortunate to have Elliott on their side.

The 1st part is right. People fell for the supreme chat so still have hope he goes there. Even though its very clear he goes ballymore.

Not sure why people suddenly think he may go supreme again. Apart from they've backed him for the supreme and want him to.

[Scooby91]

Very worried about the Aba drift. Could be an a antepost ruiner if envoi shifts course as a result. I could well be panicking early

What's to worry about. If he wasnt sound he wouldnt have been left in, in the DRF race.
His supreme price is a market correction. Theres alot of opposition now. Compared to when he was fav out on his own.

[JackieMoon33]

If Elliot pulls a genuine switchero here, he deserves pelters, imo. Trainers need to remember this game only exists because of punters. They need to stay on the punters’ side not be completely changing plans so only the bookies win.

I’d say owners play a significant part in this game’s existence.

I’m not sure a switch will happen but if it does, we as punters just have to suck it up. We don’t train or own the horse so have no part in the decision making process. We take our chance with ante post betting and can’t complain.

[Humble Pie]

The 1st part is right. People fell for the supreme chat so still have hope he goes there. Even though its very clear he goes ballymore.

Not sure why people suddenly think he may go supreme again. Apart from they've backed him for the supreme and want him to.

Hopeful pocket talk

[Humble Pie]

I’d say owners play a significant part in this game’s existence.

I’m not sure a switch will happen but if it does, we as punters just have to suck it up. We don’t train or own the horse so have no part in the decision making process. We take our chance with ante post betting and can’t complain.

Cannot have both penny and the bun .

As distasteful as it is agree 100% “ suck it up “

[Scooby91]

Hopeful pocket talk

What have I missed to think that the 5/4 ballymore fav.goes for the supreme where you can get any price you want for that race?

[Humble Pie]

What have I missed to think that the 5/4 ballymore fav.goes for the supreme where you can get any price you want for that race?

Thought that we’d put to bed EA and the Supreme then it’s resurrected

[The Beast]

More chance Shergar turning up in Supreme with Lord Lucan riding him than Envoi coming here.

[TCH29]

I’d say owners play a significant part in this game’s existence.

I’m not sure a switch will happen but if it does, we as punters just have to suck it up. We don’t train or own the horse so have no part in the decision making process. We take our chance with ante post betting and can’t complain.

Of course, but punters are the source of money for the industry. They are the generator of money from outside of the owners. If you reduce attendances, TV viewing numbers, and most importantly of all, the amount staked, the sport is of less value for the sponsors and bookies. All that drives lower prize money across the sport. Lower prize money, as trainers repeatedly flag, puts yards and jobs at risk.

Therefore, trainers need to remember that punters are who they need to side with. The bookies can look after themselves. There over round is often 120%. 15-20% margin is pretty good for most consumer facing industries, so even if every horse makes the right race, at all times have they (usually) ensures their profit regardless. Obviously with antepost punting you’re trying to get a price that is bigger than what it will be on the day should the horse make it, and the risk of injury has to be priced in. However, I do strongly believe, that given all the above i’ve explained, trainers pulling switches and change of targets shouldn’t be one. It is not good for the sport as it degrades the value of punters, the punters that actually make up the core support throughout the national hunt (and/or flat) seasons. It’s a bit like when football clubs take season ticket holders for granted, except worse, because in racing the year long punter is far more important to the entire sport’s funding (and therefore stable jobs and horse’s welfare) than season ticket holders ( due to the role of TV rights money globally in football).

[TCH29]

More chance Shergar turning up in Supreme with Lord Lucan riding him than Envoi coming here.

Hasn’t he been found now in Oz according to the Mirror?!

[AnFiieLD.]

More chance Shergar turning up in Supreme with Lord Lucan riding him than Envoi coming here.

Spot on mate

[The Beast]

Hasn’t he been found now in Oz according to the Mirror?!

Which one

Seriously though EA goes Ballymore , it was Plan A at start of season and it remains Plan A now.

Aba drift could be something or nothing , perhaps they want to keep him fresh for March and let Easywork step in .

[TCH29]

Which one

Seriously though EA goes Ballymore , it was Plan A at start of season and it remains Plan A now.

Aba drift could be something or nothing , perhaps they want to keep him fresh for March and let Easywork step in .

Well, here’s hoping!

That headline in the Mirror did make me do a double take. Was like something from the Daily Star!

[Quevega]

I couldn't give a shit which race Envoi Allen runs in. I'm not heavily involved in him as I didn't want to back a bumper winner at 10-1 or shorter 6 months from the race. So have never got involved barring very small stake speculative doubles and a saver on the supreme cos they left 20-1 for ages.
Although I'd find it more amusing if he turned up in the supreme. Only slightly amusing though as I'd like some of the devotees to get paid off, ideally not at my expense though.

But Kinloch is correct that the new evidence is a factor. And the key difference in my opinion between this scenario and Samcro's novice season was Gordon constantly stated that the Ballymore was the target for Samcro.
With Envoi Allen this has not been the case, he has mentioned he will be stepped up in trip and will likely be better for it, and he has mentioned the Ballymore as a likely destination (mentioning Cheltenham races was more at the beginning though before the season began).
He appears to have been at pains to not mention a Cheltenham specific race target since Envoi rocked up first time this season.
So I don't think anyone could criticise him this year if the horse did run in the supreme.

I think the moves in the supreme market are nothing to do with Envoi Allen though and just a market correction like Scooby suggested, and also the information some bookmakers appear to have got about the likely entries for the Dublin races.

He'll still go for the Ballymore more than likely as it does appear the yard may be involved.
But as I've stated before if it came up heavy, they may change their mind.
Gordon will be hoping that whoever he enters for the 2 miler this weekend can win for him, which would leave him with another ace to play. I hope it's Easywork, and I think so does Gordon.

I also think that depending on the results this weekend, we might get put out of our misery, and Gordon will start talking targets more specifically I reckon. He is a natural Blurt after all.