Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[ryanh97]

Anything to take from PP and BF being best price on Abacadabras?

[ComplyOrDie]

Anything to take from PP and BF being best price on Abacadabras?

It'll be the sustained gamble on Shishkin I'd expect, only just holding on to the 4's on the exchanges, so the bookmakers will react to that for sure.

[Morley Street]

Unexcepted's maiden win hasn't worked out great.
Maybe he is actually unexceptional.
But there is a chance his last run was an off day I suppose.

You’re a hard man to please Q... the second won his maiden against useful collateral form lines and the third finished in front of Exit Poll next time out in a race that you yourself have called out as good form in another thread. There was 6l back to the 4th that day and Unexcepted destroyed the two I’ve mentioned with any amount in hand. I don’t see what there is not to like?

[MadeinJapan]

If Unexcepted beats Abacadabras at the DRF

The first thing I will do is back Easywork.

That is one of the horses that would be loaded up in a betslip with the money already deposited ready to fire.




I reckon people are going lukewarm on Abacadabras because we've not seen him for a while. Recency bias plays a part in that, but for everybody that adores Envoi Allen, the 2nd to him was impressive from Abacadabras and arguably still the best piece of 2m form we have so far?

Is that because you think Gigginstown will run Easywork here & not the Ballymore then if Abacadabras gets beat at the DRF? Or am I being thick here?

[Kevloaf]

Is that because you think Gigginstown will run Easywork here & not the Ballymore then if Abacadabras gets beat at the DRF? Or am I being thick here?

Partly that, and partly that I don't think there was any fluke about Easywork beating Unexcepted.




Janidil is the exact same connections as Unexcepted, higher rated, and has 3 wins.

I'd be surprised if Unexcepted didn't go down the handicap route myself, JP owned horses aren't campaigned the same way as others?

[Quevega]

You’re a hard man to please Q... the second won his maiden against useful collateral form lines and the third finished in front of Exit Poll next time out in a race that you yourself have called out as good form in another thread. There was 6l back to the 4th that day and Unexcepted destroyed the two I’ve mentioned with any amount in hand. I don’t see what there is not to like?

We'll all read the form a little differently and all struggle to get it right every time, as horses improve and horses have off days.
But the maiden Mt Leinster won I rate as stronger form, because of the line through Easywork. And to a lesser extent The very Man.
I don't think the maiden jason militant won was any good either.

Having said that, he did win his maiden easily, but it was a typical steadily run early season maiden, and so although his second run might not have been his true ability, it might also show his actual ranking, and when really tested against better horses he's not as good as them yet.

If you assume they all ran to their best ability on every run this season then he's way short.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Shishkin entered at Sandown this Saturday

[MadeinJapan]

Partly that, and partly that I don't think there was any fluke about Easywork beating Unexcepted.




Janidil is the exact same connections as Unexcepted, higher rated, and has 3 wins.

I'd be surprised if Unexcepted didn't go down the handicap route myself, JP owned horses aren't campaigned the same way as others?

Fair comment on Janidil being higher rated. Surely if Unexcepted turns over Abracadabras at the DRF though they'd have him in this instead rather than carrying a likely high weight in a handicap? If we're saying Unexcepted is a handicapper too then Easywork turning him over may not be as good form as thought? I suppose a LOT will depend on how the races this weekend pan out then on this market... still not heavily involved in this yet apart from a couple of points on Fly Smart.

[The King Pimm]

What the deal with Tiger Tap Tap? I thought he still had novice status but he’s entered into a handicap race at the DRF. If he enters will he lose his novice status?? I’ve got him at 50’s for this but don’t hold up much hope but curious as to whether it’s money wasted

[Kevloaf]

Fair comment on Janidil being higher rated. Surely if Unexcepted turns over Abracadabras at the DRF though they'd have him in this instead rather than carrying a likely high weight in a handicap? If we're saying Unexcepted is a handicapper too then Easywork turning him over may not be as good form as thought? I suppose a LOT will depend on how the races this weekend pan out then on this market... still not heavily involved in this yet apart from a couple of points on Fly Smart.

Yeah, if Unexcepted does beat Abacadabras in the Grade 1, he'll be a short priced player in the race. I have no doubt he'd run in the Supreme then.



I'm not saying Unexcepted is a handicapper, I am saying he may well run in a handicap while he has the chance - as JP/Mullins have other options.



I don't think Easywork is likely to come here either, but big price on the exchanges and IF Abacadbras was beaten, connections of that may look at the horse they have that did beat Unexcepted over 2 miles...




I definitely wouldn't be looking at Easywork or Unexcepted as my main bets for the Supreme at this point.

[jack1092]

What the deal with Tiger Tap Tap? I thought he still had novice status but he’s entered into a handicap race at the DRF. If he enters will he lose his novice status?? I’ve got him at 50’s for this but don’t hold up much hope but curious as to whether it’s money wasted

No he's a novice until after Punchestown.

[The King Pimm]

No he's a novice until after Punchestown.

Cheers Jack. I doubt he’ll turn up in the SNH but with Jon Snow not excelling and Fly Smart still in hibernation you never know.

[Quevega]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/exciting-novice-soviet-pimpernel-purchased-and-goes-straight-to-supreme/420023

soviet pimpernel heading here apparantly.
would've liked it in a handicap off 138 myself.

[jack1092]

Cheers Jack. I doubt he’ll turn up in the SNH but with Jon Snow not excelling and Fly Smart still in hibernation you never know.

I'd have thought they'd chance their arm in the handicap rather than the grade 1 at the DRF anyway. Hope they do.

[Mr_mouse]

Joe chambers when asked about fly smart not racing at the weekend on twitter “he will run when he is ready, plenty of races for him yet”