Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Hurricane fly]

5/1 is very hard to ignore for a horse I don’t have in my book as much as I’d like (Aba)

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Fly Smart is a strange one and despite the entry Im wondering if hes a big red herring. We all know that a few quid antepost and prices change straight away and yet hes still sat at 33/1 with PP who I think we all accept are the bookie who tend to get that stable the best when it comes to pricing their horses. Everyone i know who bets on horses has backed him at 33/1 and yet he can still be backed at the same price. Ironically this is one of the rare occasions when a horse does deserve to be that big price, but why hasnt the money shifted his price, before Melon made his debut what price was he for the Supreme can anyone recall please?

Excellent point (as ever) Billy; when you consider how short Annamix was for the Supreme before he made his debut this seems strange

[charlie]

Excellent point (as ever) Billy; when you consider how short Annamix was for the Supreme before he made his debut this seems strange

Fly Smart could easily be a red herring, the difference between him and horse like Annamix is the price. 33/1 with the back story is a fair and unfound price in the market, definitely the right price for a speculative punt based on what we know now. If he is a red herring then so be it

[ComplyOrDie]

As much as i don't think ABA is all that. Jeez this Shishkin move is crazy.

It is nuts! Maybe because we are used to seeing it about a WPM runner, but not a Hendo runner, they usually have to do plenty more that win a maiden for this to be happening, that all said, the race is crying out for something special, Aba is plenty solid enough at the head of the betting with form behind him.

It will now be interesting to see how Fly Smart gets on. The market could change dramatically from where it was a couple of weeks ago.

[jack1092]

There obviously has been mention of Fly Smart on twitter etc. Though it's nowhere near as regular as Annamix was IMO.

As Charlie says his French form is something worth chancing. I did expect him to be shorter already, but i guess Shishkin was still this price before his hurdle run. Granted for different connections etc.

[Liammet]

There obviously has been mention of Fly Smart on twitter etc. Though it's nowhere near as regular as Annamix was IMO.

As Charlie says his French form is something worth chancing. I did expect him to be shorter already, but i guess Shishkin was still this price before his hurdle run. Granted for different connections etc.

The funny thing about Fly Smart at 33/1 is only a few shrewd punters will cover it
If they decided to move it to 25s,then 20s and 16s the whole world would back it
Mug punters can’t resist a “ so called “ gamble
Particularly on a Mullins/ricci horse in the supreme

[Arkle]

Out of sight out of mind at the bottom of the page shiskhin was 33’s after that fall and before his last run I think shiskhins turn of foot is what has impressed me the most out of the supreme bunch and the fact the ballymore is being consider aswell you have to stay in a supreme same talk about klassical dream last year

[Saxon Warrior]

As much as i don't think ABA is all that. Jeez this Shishkin move is crazy.

We all know that of all the stables in England Seven Barrows seems to be the most leaky for antepost info. Therefore I would always be very interested in betting moves in or out from that stable. IMO it doesn’t mean that he will win the Supreme, maybe that ‘they’ think he could win, and are willing to takes 6s down to 5s, and not leave it at that price

[jonthehammer]

When did you hear this?

Strange how he finally gets an entry and now he isn't working well, not really WPM's style.

Mate knows a work rider for Mullins. He’s been wrong before though.

[billymag]

From ATR (wonder if he might meet Chantry house)


Master Debonair will bid to enhance Colin Tizzard’s fine record in the Bet At racingtv.com Novices’ Hurdle at Exeter, en route to the Cheltenham Festival.

The Dorset trainer has claimed three of the last four renewals of the Listed prize – abandoned during the equine flu outbreak 12 months ago – and his winners have included subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Native River, back in 2015.

Since suffering defeat on his debut, Master Debonair – a general 14-1 shot for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – has posted successive victories at Ascot, most recently in a Grade Two last month.

Tizzard’s son and assistant Joe said: “He will probably go to Exeter for the two-mile Listed hurdle next.

“Our record in that race is strong, but we are just trying to keep all the novices apart before Cheltenham.”

Three of Master Debonair’s potential Supreme rivals fought out a tight finish in Haydock’s Grade Two Rossington Main trial on Saturday.

Tizzard added: “It looked a decent race at Haydock – so all being well, he will go to Exeter before the Supreme.

“He has been fine since his win at Ascot and he is a progressive young horse that is exciting. This novice-hurdle team is the best we’ve had.”

[ComplyOrDie]

Mate knows a work rider for Mullins. He’s been wrong before though.

No worries, thanks Jon

[JackieMoon33]

From ATR (wonder if he might meet Chantry house)


Master Debonair will bid to enhance Colin Tizzard’s fine record in the Bet At racingtv.com Novices’ Hurdle at Exeter, en route to the Cheltenham Festival.

The Dorset trainer has claimed three of the last four renewals of the Listed prize – abandoned during the equine flu outbreak 12 months ago – and his winners have included subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Native River, back in 2015.

Since suffering defeat on his debut, Master Debonair – a general 14-1 shot for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – has posted successive victories at Ascot, most recently in a Grade Two last month.

Tizzard’s son and assistant Joe said: “He will probably go to Exeter for the two-mile Listed hurdle next.

“Our record in that race is strong, but we are just trying to keep all the novices apart before Cheltenham.”

Three of Master Debonair’s potential Supreme rivals fought out a tight finish in Haydock’s Grade Two Rossington Main trial on Saturday.

Tizzard added: “It looked a decent race at Haydock – so all being well, he will go to Exeter before the Supreme.

“He has been fine since his win at Ascot and he is a progressive young horse that is exciting. This novice-hurdle team is the best we’ve had.”

Nice update.

Not sure Nicky will want to meet him as Nicky likes to keep the '1's' until the Festival where he can. As Chantry has only run once he could easily go for a lesser race or under a penalty I'd imagine.

[Hurricane fly]

Melon made his debut what price was he for the Supreme can anyone recall please?

I think he was hammered down to 7/1 before debut and then went 7/2 after winning

[robith]

Think there could be a few other mitigating factors on Fly Smart's price

- Once bitten twice shy with Senewalk and Annamix, people are less keen on this being the be all and end all
- Since Giggsintown left, Mullins has cultivated a larger group of owners and Ricci horses less prevalent (Klassical Dream for eg)
- Jon Snow tanking would put people off imo
- Ricci owned horses no winner in 2019, 1 in 2018, 1 in 2017

I will concede that if a Mullins horse was fancied its price would be getting cut, but hey at 33/1 for 2 points I'm prepared to find out



I will concede

[billymag]

I think he was hammered down to 7/1 before debut and then went 7/2 after winning

thanks HF that was about what i was thinking