Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[charlie]

Does Aba's running style worry anyone in that he seems to clatter one or two throughout & has a slightly odd head carriage? Wonder whether it was the ground & he may prefer better which you'll imagine he'll get at Cheltenham, that being said in the Supreme he might not get away with more than one error... After ripping my Fly Smart ticket up & with only a small e/w on Captain Guinness so far, I'm still searching for the winner in this... doesn't appear to be too much between Aba & Asterion from the race replays I've watched so far...

I'd be lying if I said it wasn't a slight concern. He does seem to race quite keenly and I imagine he will be like a coiled spring come March going there fresh. The strong pace in the Royal Bond certainly helped him and I'd be confident of a strong pace here, which will help him.

[charlie]

This.

I try to imagine what Shiskin or Asterion Forlonge would have done to her, and it would have been far more than what Aba done IMO.

For all that Abacadabras is a very good winner for me in the race, now we have seen a bit more come out I do think it'll be an uphill struggle (excuse the pun) for him, to be winning the Supreme.

Perhaps COD. Time will tell. Buzzing to see how it all plays out. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Asterion Forlonge was the real deal. I thought it was interesting that AF was being hard driven and kept up to his work by DM turning in on yielding to soft ground (on the sharper inside track which favors speed), whereas Aba finished fairly cosily on soft to heavy ground, and clocked nearly 5 seconds faster. (The differences in the track could render that useless, but I thought it was interesting).

[jack1092]

Perhaps COD. Time will tell. Buzzing to see how it all plays out. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Asterion Forlonge was the real deal. I thought it was interesting that AF was being hard driven and kept up to his work by DM turning in on yielding to soft ground (on the sharper inside track which favors speed), whereas Aba finished fairly cosily on soft to heavy ground, and clocked nearly 5 seconds faster. (The differences in the track could render that useless, but I thought it was interesting).

+ race distances. Which seem to be a bigger issue than i'd have imagined in Ireland.

Aba travels like a travelly thing as we know. Asterion as more of a stayer, might just idle etc. We don't know he's only raced twice in a month over hurdles.
Thinking more about it, i'd be disappointed if both Easywork + Mt Leinster couldn't beat HHU, wouldn't you?

[Quevega]

Glad this discussion carried on without me

What if Master Debonair wins really well at the weekend ?
As the mare Heaven Help Us beat him at Cheltenham.

Which I think says a lot about how form can get a bit skewed sometimes, in a lot of the early season novice races. And a lot are not strongly run.

Abacadabra's is another 'bridle bitch' - Discuss

[Can't Catch Me]

Glad this discussion carried on without me

What if Master Debonair wins really well at the weekend ?
As the mare Heaven Help Us beat him at Cheltenham.

Which I think says a lot about how form can get a bit skewed sometimes, in a lot of the early season novice races. And a lot are not strongly run.

Abacadabra's is another 'bridle bitch' - Discuss

Won't matter if he is a bridle bitch, when he swoops past them all up the hill, on the bridle

[Middle_Of_March]

Here’s one for ya lads... if you were pricing the race up right now, how would you have it for the front 5 in the market assuming they all turn up (so effectively NRNB) - not including envoi Allen who won’t be here.

I’d go:
Asterion Forlonge 7/2
Abacadabras 4/1
Shishkin 11/2
Chantry House 6/1
Fiddlerontheroof 17/2

[jack1092]

Glad this discussion carried on without me

What if Master Debonair wins really well at the weekend ?
As the mare Heaven Help Us beat him at Cheltenham.

Which I think says a lot about how form can get a bit skewed sometimes, in a lot of the early season novice races. And a lot are not strongly run.

Abacadabra's is another 'bridle bitch' - Discuss

Wouldn't worry a button what MD does, Fred's now rated 144 as well. Form looks nice, or as you say it's really skewed....given her form since then i think we know which it is.....unless Floressa is better than Annie Power?

[ComplyOrDie]

Glad this discussion carried on without me

What if Master Debonair wins really well at the weekend ?
As the mare Heaven Help Us beat him at Cheltenham.

I'd say fairly irrelevant.

Tizzards, just like last season with Reserve Tank, Copperhead etc..., and this season with Harry Senior and Fiddlerontheroof, have needed at least one run, sometimes two or more, before coming up with the goods.

How much you can put on Master Debonair's seasonal debut is massively questionable IMO.

[jack1092]

Here’s one for ya lads... if you were pricing the race up right now, how would you have it for the front 5 in the market assuming they all turn up (so effectively NRNB) - not including envoi Allen who won’t be here.

I’d go:
Asterion Forlonge 7/2
Abacadabras 4/1
Shishkin 11/2
Chantry House 6/1
Fiddlerontheroof 17/2

It is wide open, but that's incredibly tight pricing, considering there will be a big field?

[ComplyOrDie]

Shishkin given 153, same as Asterion Forlonge, though would presume, as he usually does, the UK handicapper would give AF a few more lbs which would put him ahead, on ratings, of Shishkin.

Chantry House only given 140.

[charlie]

Glad this discussion carried on without me

What if Master Debonair wins really well at the weekend ?
As the mare Heaven Help Us beat him at Cheltenham.

Which I think says a lot about how form can get a bit skewed sometimes, in a lot of the early season novice races. And a lot are not strongly run.

Abacadabra's is another 'bridle bitch' - Discuss

I need to see him off the bridle more times than I have before commenting Q .

[jack1092]

Fella i know was down at Elliots and Malone Road is meant to have yet another setback. Never going to see how good he could've been unfortunately!

[FaugheenTheMachine]

I’d be very surprised if Shiskin and Fiddlerontheroof’s prices were that close together at SP

[Middle_Of_March]

It is wide open, but that's incredibly tight pricing, considering there will be a big field?

True. I was more concentrating on the price differentials between them than the actual price (if that makes sense?)

[Pendil]

Pendil, has the bug all cleared up in Gordys yard now? As you touched upon some of his beaten runners could now be great value for Cheltenham if they were indeed slightly off colour

Hi FTM
I met some old racing buddies on Fri. 31st Jan to talk racing (and enjoy some good wine). Talk about how disgraceful GE handling of Aba non running was where the market knew at least 24 hours before the public. That was when one of the guys who is an owner said about some of GE horses having runny noses.
It's a hectic schedule for top Irish stables from Royal Bond meeting through Leopardstown/Limerick meets 4weeks.
Then DRF 4 weeks and 5 weeks to Cheltenham.
They have to give their horses the flu jab in between. If Archie is about he might know when the big stables schedule that. So yeah I am convinced that some of Gordons stars were under the weather without showing symptoms at home.

Value
To me Fury Road at nearly twice the odds he was in Jan.
May have been under the weather
Still ran respectably beaten just over 5l by Latest Exhibition.
The ground on both days was officially yielding but Saturdays going was definitely on the good side. Sundays racing was 10seconds slower than Saturdays as a result of (over)watering.
FR definitely wants slower ground and a bigger test of stamina.

Apologies for clogging up The Supreme thread