Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[charlie]

How many do you think will line up then? Can see 12-13 max imo. I don’t really think he’s the forgotten horse I just don’t think people liked that performance over Xmas just holding a 120+ rated hurdler who got beat next time out into third. The word going round Leopardstown was some of Elliott’s team were under the weather so maybe that had something to do with it.

Just holding

[Grinch]

Chanelle was still a poor renewal. We will be having algorithims replacing members opinions soon.

compared to what? theres been a wide range of performances in winning this race. No doubt that the form shown by the winner would need to be improved on (Samcro probably didnt need to improve ..albeit in the 2m5f) but thats concievable ..i dont have an opinion on the form btw and the ownership situation makes it even harder to have a bet ..

[Grinch]

Experience is clearly important in the Supreme, they go a mad clip and don't stop. Most horses have never raced that fast, the ground is usually better than what they have been running on and the field is so big you might not get a great sight of your hurdles. Abra is almost a forgotten horse now since not running at Christmas. Fact he has been beaten as well, in my opinion is a positive. I think you learn a lot more in a defeat than you do in a win about your horse.

that being the case why is the Champion Bumper such a poor trial (of late)..since it replicates many of the factors that seem to be important .. the pace ..generally the field size ..the crowd etc ..Abra aint been forgotten by the books has he ? And no being beaten isnt a positive in a historical sense ...unbeaten horses outperform their price in this race .. what you learn generally is that you are not top class if you get beat on the way to chelts ..in my opinion .. fwiw etc

[Pendil]

How many do you think will line up then? Can see 12-13 max imo. I don’t really think he’s the forgotten horse I just don’t think people liked that performance over Xmas just holding a 120+ rated hurdler who got beat next time out into third. The word going round Leopardstown was some of Elliott’s team were under the weather so maybe that had something to do with it.

I mentioned it at the time strong rumours about sniffles in the yard
Aba was strong fav. In run up but didn't run
Battleoverdoyen didn't run his race
Furey Road is better than that
Column of Fire should have pissed up of that rating
Hopefully can be cleared up over next 4 weeks but may be creating value
I had another bet last week on Furey Road @ 17.5/1 with W Hill last week for the AB as back up to Latest Exhibition

[JackieMoon33]

Master Debonair also has dual entries at Ascot (2m3f) and the Kingwell at Wincanton (2m) on Saturday. I assume he’ll also be re-entered at Exeter as well.

[Kevloaf]

..in my opinion .. fwiw etc

For clarity, the problem I have Grinchy is; when people state something like "Envoi Allen runs here", without the IMO/in my opinion/for what its worth/FWIW/etc.


You saying what you learn does not need it...



Maybe I've not made this clear enough

[Grinch]

For clarity, the problem I have Grinchy is; when people state something like "Envoi Allen runs here", without the IMO/in my opinion/for what its worth/FWIW/etc.


You saying what you learn does not need it...



Maybe I've not made this clear enough

got ya loafy
was just being polite since i am still claiming (think im plotted up for blackbow in the boys race)
and the etc was an attempt at a little irony

ok so its a fact that gettin beat dont enhance your chances of landing a supreme
its a reflective narrative based on what we select and what we want to see
being someone who sucessfully convinced myself that falling in a prep was beneficial ... i feel i can comment

[charlie]

got ya loafy
was just being polite since i am still claiming (think im plotted up for blackbow in the boys race)
and the etc was an attempt at a little irony

ok so its a fact that gettin beat dont enhance your chances of landing a supreme
its a reflective narrative based on what we select and what we want to see
being someone who sucessfully convinced myself that falling in a prep was beneficial ... i feel i can comment

OP is not stating as fact that getting beat enhances the chance of winning a supreme, his point was that horses can learn more in a defeat than in victory, which is true. Take Aba and Shishkin for example. Is Aba learning more in defeat at the hands of Envoi Allen than Shishkin is racking up 1's vs what?

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Pendil, has the bug all cleared up in Gordys yard now? As you touched upon some of his beaten runners could now be great value for Cheltenham if they were indeed slightly off colour

[darlojim]

How many do you think will line up then? Can see 12-13 max imo. I don’t really think he’s the forgotten horse I just don’t think people liked that performance over Xmas just holding a 120+ rated hurdler who got beat next time out into third. The word going round Leopardstown was some of Elliott’s team were under the weather so maybe that had something to do with it.

Just holding? He cleared away by 7 lengths or so after the last, that comment couldn't have been further from the truth.

[MadeinJapan]

Just holding? He cleared away by 7 lengths or so after the last, that comment couldn't have been further from the truth.

Does Aba's running style worry anyone in that he seems to clatter one or two throughout & has a slightly odd head carriage? Wonder whether it was the ground & he may prefer better which you'll imagine he'll get at Cheltenham, that being said in the Supreme he might not get away with more than one error... After ripping my Fly Smart ticket up & with only a small e/w on Captain Guinness so far, I'm still searching for the winner in this... doesn't appear to be too much between Aba & Asterion from the race replays I've watched so far...

[charlie]

Just holding? He cleared away by 7 lengths or so after the last, that comment couldn't have been further from the truth.

I know! Not sure how anyone could interpret the race that way. They jump the last at the same time and Aba sprints clear by 8 lengths in 200 yards whilst giving away 7lbs, and he's apparently 'just holding' the runner up. Nonsense

[jack1092]

I know! Not sure how anyone could interpret the race that way. They jump the last at the same time and Aba sprints clear by 8 lengths in 200 yards whilst giving away 7lbs, and he's apparently 'just holding' the runner up. Nonsense

Crazy comment is right.
The runner up can't win a listed mares even of any kind so far. England or Ireland. You'd be worried if he didn't do that? It was a nothing race. On this basis Floressa should be Supreme favourite She won't even win the bloody mares novice lol.

[ComplyOrDie]

Crazy comment is right.
The runner up can't win a listed mares even of any kind so far. England or Ireland. You'd be worried if he didn't do that? It was a nothing race. On this basis Floressa should be Supreme favourite She won't even win the bloody mares novice lol.

This.

I try to imagine what Shiskin or Asterion Forlonge would have done to her, and it would have been far more than what Aba done IMO.

For all that Abacadabras is a very good winner for me in the race, now we have seen a bit more come out I do think it'll be an uphill struggle (excuse the pun) for him, to be winning the Supreme.

[Can't Catch Me]

I still think the Royal Bond form is the best in this race.

AF, Shishkin and Chantry House all bring unlimited potential but Aba's form has more substance than any of them. I also like the fact he's been to the Festival and performed with credit. To my eyes he should still be fav.