Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Saxon Warrior]

I am only allowed about 2p on with Skybet, but for those who can bet properly with themOddshecker seems to be suggesting a push out in their NRNB prices for the Supreme.

Abacadabras now 5/1
Asterion Forlonge 4/1 to 5/1
etc.

[Joleg]

I am surprised he isn't more popular tbh and I don't think he gets the credit he deserves, perhaps because of EA.

EA is the only horse stopping him going into this as a multiple grade 1 winner and he hasn't put a foot wrong outside of that, winning all his races on the snaff. Were it not for traffic and a poor jump at the last vs EA, I think he could have arguably beaten him. He travelled all over the field between 2 and 1 out and it was just that bad jump at the last that lost his chance. Darver Star finishing half a length behind Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle gives the form a very solid shape, and in my opinion the best piece of form on offer.

Shishkin is priced up on reputation and visually impressive performances in weaker races. Asterion Forlonge won well the other day but I question that form and his jumping is no way near as slick or straight as as Aba (who also has the benefit of Cheltenham experience). Fiddlerontheroof looks good but the form doesn't look great. Chantry House is interesting, but could very well be Ballymore bound. I think Captain Guiness is too inexperienced. Master Debonair won well LTO but lost at Cheltenham to a horse Abacadabras just beat comfortably. The rest don't tempt me.

If Gordon confirmed today that Envoi Allen was going here then he would be even money or odds on. Abacadabras is 5 times the price and I think his form and way he runs puts him bang there. If I was starting again from scratch I would have him over Shishkin, AF and the others I have mentioned.

Agree with all of this

[Quevega]

I have AF backed for the Supreme @ 33/1 and no bet on him for The Ballymore.
However I question the value of the Leopardstown G1, as he was only beating tier 3 horse in Easywork and Mt Leinster.
Tier 1 horses EA and Aba resting in their stables
Tier 2 horse Andy D and Captain G resting in their stables.
Its an interesting conundrum for the Donnellys having Asterion Forlonge Shishkin and The Big Getaway

I question where the list of Tier's and the horses within each are ? Think I'd find them useful.

Obviously formlines are subjective and fluid, and will possibly come clearer after the event. Not always.
And the form of the Royal Bond should encourage Abacadabra's backers. Because it's decent.

I personally like the Easywork/Mt Leinster form line and they pretty much ran to that level in Dublin. So that makes me like Asterion Forlonge so much. Then you factor the trainer and history etc etc.

And add the sprinkle of seasoning that Gigginstown won't win the supreme
And Henderson soft soaps his novices too much.

I'm actually quite please to have a strong position/opinion this year as the last 2 have been pretty tricky with muddled form and not many unbeaten types mainly. This years renewal looks like being better at the moment.

[Saxon Warrior]

I really like the makeup of the top of the market, hopefully they turn up and have no hard-luck and we get two or three that even stay over hurdles to contest the Champion Hurdle next season. - it definitely needs a boost ever since good quality flat horses were sold abroad instead of coming over hurdles.

[Kevloaf]

I am surprised he isn't more popular tbh and I don't think he gets the credit he deserves, perhaps because of EA.

EA is the only horse stopping him going into this as a multiple grade 1 winner and he hasn't put a foot wrong outside of that, winning all his races on the snaff. Were it not for traffic and a poor jump at the last vs EA, I think he could have arguably beaten him. He travelled all over the field between 2 and 1 out and it was just that bad jump at the last that lost his chance. Darver Star finishing half a length behind Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle gives the form a very solid shape, and in my opinion the best piece of form on offer.

Shishkin is priced up on reputation and visually impressive performances in weaker races. Asterion Forlonge won well the other day but I question that form and his jumping is no way near as slick or straight as as Aba (who also has the benefit of Cheltenham experience). Fiddlerontheroof looks good but the form doesn't look great. Chantry House is interesting, but could very well be Ballymore bound. I think Captain Guiness is too inexperienced. Master Debonair won well LTO but lost at Cheltenham to a horse Abacadabras just beat comfortably. The rest don't tempt me.

If Gordon confirmed today that Envoi Allen was going here then he would be even money or odds on. Abacadabras is 5 times the price and I think his form and way he runs puts him bang there. If I was starting again from scratch I would have him over Shishkin, AF and the others I have mentioned.

Yeah, that's the point I was making but I don't think I actually said it

I got carried away explaining WHY Abacadabras is being overlooked and forgot to say that I like him

[Quevega]

To add to the previous comments.

The reason I like the Dublin form vs the Royal Bond form is it looked more of a championship race.

They were strung out from a long way out at Dublin and looked to go very hard.
Whereas this was less so in the bond, and there were quite a few still travelling at the 2 furlong pole.

That's not to say that a horse like Abacardabras won't improve for a stronger pace (as he could benefit). It's just not proven to me and I personally don't think he would.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not that I want to bang the same drum, but worth remembering that the Royal Bond is hardly a prolific race for finding the Supreme winner, unlike the Deloitte/Chanelle in recent years.

Last horses to be able to do it were Champagne Fever and Jezki, but the result from the Royal Bond was reversed on that occasion, and aside from them I think that's about it.

I think the RB definitely seems to favour the horses that go out in trip come the festival.

[Outlaw]

The Royal Bond this year will stack up better ( already reads well) than the CP will IMO . Envoi and Aba both won G1 since chuck in Darver coming out best in the Irish CH , and Turnpike racing competitively off 146 it really is rock solid this season and that's more important than historically what is best surely .

[Quevega]

The Royal Bond this year will stack up better ( already reads well) than the CP will IMO . Envoi and Aba both won G1 since chuck in Darver coming out best in the Irish CH , and Turnpike racing competitively off 146 it really is rock solid this season and that's more important than historically what is best surely .

It's not hard to knock the 2 subsequent grade 1's though, or turnpike's run.
Darver star is the most interesting one, but also the most unexpected.

The after race form of the Dublin race we'll not know till it's too late.

[Outlaw]

It's not hard to knock the 2 subsequent grade 1's though, or turnpike's run.
Darver star is the most interesting one, but also the most unexpected.

The after race form of the Dublin race we'll not know till it's too late.

In general I'd be happy to say think those behind Envoi in the Royal Bond will achieve more going forward in time from now than those behind Asterion was also the jist. Didn't have either of the two highest rated novices in EA/Aba so arguably weaker than previous renewals . Time will tell

[Pendil]

[QUOTE=Quevega;145904]I question where the list of Tier's and the horses within each are ? Think I'd find them useful.

Of course its subjective I forgot to add IMO

[Quevega]

[QUOTE=Pendil;145945]

I question where the list of Tier's and the horses within each are ? Think I'd find them useful.

Of course its subjective I forgot to add IMO

Just found it funny.
There's people on internet with there own business earning a living with worse systems ('value rater') for example.

Think you'd get a couple of years out of it at least.

Pendil's 'Tiered Racing System'

[Jrow]

I think some people are downplaying AF's achievement too much.
To win a grade 1 by almost 10 lengths posting an RPR of 156 in only its second hurdles start is very good going. It took Altior four spins to post a figure of 157 going into the supreme.

Just aside from this...does anyone know the highest RPR recorded pre supreme by previous winners? surely AF is up there

[Kevloaf]

I think some people are downplaying AF's achievement too much.
To win a grade 1 by almost 10 lengths posting an RPR of 156 in only its second hurdles start is very good going. It took Altior four spins to post a figure of 157 going into the supreme.

Just aside from this...does anyone know the highest RPR recorded pre supreme by previous winners? surely AF is up there

It's not so much downplaying as being realistic?

Do you think it's more likely his RPR is inflated, or do you think he'll go on to be as good or better than Altior?



I'm inclined to think he's a little flattered by the RPR.
Doesn't mean he's not in my book and can't go on to win, and win easily.... it just means I am not absolutely sold that he's already as good as Altior was after 4 runs, after just 2.




If you can't downplay things like that, you end up on every single bandwagon and although it's only around 10 years I've been doing this, I've seen enough horses not live up to expectations to make me at least question these kinds of ratings...



****and welcome to the forum

[Quevega]

Using the hype word in this context is probably not fair.
An RPR is not hype.