Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[punterorplonker]

Cant decide if gavin said the bannerkingrebel will run in the supreme or not ?hmmm

[Quevega]

Asterion Forlonge wins the Supreme for me.

He has speed and stamina and has won the best trial by far, in good style.

When Mullins has a good Deloitte/Channelle Pharma winner, especially a prominent racer, he usually sends them to the supreme and instructs the rider to ride the horse like he's the best horse in the race.

From the front, setting his own tempo and blasting away. Basically, if anything's good enough to come past and beat it then fair play.

Champagne Fever
Vautour
Klassical Dream

The race has been over 2m 2f in the past so he has sometimes sent them to the Ballymore and on one odd occasion sent one to the bartlett. But they all got beat.

Nichols Canyon went Ballymore because they had Douvan.
Bacardys went Ballymore because they had Melon.
Bleu et rouge went Bartlett !! because they had Min.

The prices are wrong in this race and he should be clear favourite at around the 3-1 mark himself.

I do understand why he isn't, because of Mullins initial thoughts and the other horses the owner has.
I'm not far from commiting to him fully, but will wait for a slightly bigger NRNB price than the 4's on offer right now.
Shishkin would be the worry/only danger.

[luisgarciaisgod]

Abracadbras becoming the forgotten horse here just by sitting in his horse box

[Innoko]

For me there’s one major difference between the horses mentioned and AF.

The fact Ruby won’t be on him.

[Kevloaf]

Champagne Fever
Vautour
Klassical Dream

For me there’s one major difference between the horses mentioned and AF.

The fact Ruby won’t be on him.

I completely agree, it's a negative for me.

However, that might be why he's 5/1 and not 3/1?



Vautour would have won regardless... I don't think Champagne Fever or Klassical Dream would have won with Ruby Walsh riding.

Not trying to knock Paul Townend, I just don't think he has anything in hand on the other jockeys, whereas Ruby did.

[Quevega]

For me there’s one major difference between the horses mentioned and AF.

The fact Ruby won’t be on him.

Brilliant point.
I was going to cover that off, and forgot.
It's the second worry.
Ruby (more often than not) knew exactly what pace he was going and Townend might easily over or under do it.

[Quevega]

Abracadbras becoming the forgotten horse here just by sitting in his horse box

Who's Abacadabra's ?

[jack1092]

Abracadbras becoming the forgotten horse here just by sitting in his horse box

Not forgotten at all. Mentioned and discussed on here plenty.

[Kevloaf]

Abacadabras is unlikely to become a horse people like to talk about, as we know he's not the best 2 mile hurdler in the yard.

Therefore, we are inclined to go searching around the houses for other formlines.



I am still, very hopeful, the Abacadabras / Envoi Allen e/w double that we (I ) put up after their run, is the best bet of the week


It does mean though, there isn't really a lot else to say about him.

Arguably still has the best form of the horses that'll run in the race.... he has some question marks with attitude & head carry.

[Pendil]

Asterion Forlonge wins the Supreme for me.

He has speed and stamina and has won the best trial by far, in good style.

When Mullins has a good Deloitte/Channelle Pharma winner, especially a prominent racer, he usually sends them to the supreme and instructs the rider to ride the horse like he's the best horse in the race.

From the front, setting his own tempo and blasting away. Basically, if anything's good enough to come past and beat it then fair play.

Champagne Fever
Vautour
Klassical Dream

The race has been over 2m 2f in the past so he has sometimes sent them to the Ballymore and on one odd occasion sent one to the bartlett. But they all got beat.

Nichols Canyon went Ballymore because they had Douvan.
Bacardys went Ballymore because they had Melon.
Bleu et rouge went Bartlett !! because they had Min.

The prices are wrong in this race and he should be clear favourite at around the 3-1 mark himself.

I do understand why he isn't, because of Mullins initial thoughts and the other horses the owner has.
I'm not far from commiting to him fully, but will wait for a slightly bigger NRNB price than the 4's on offer right now.
Shishkin would be the worry/only danger.

I have AF backed for the Supreme @ 33/1 and no bet on him for The Ballymore.
However I question the value of the Leopardstown G1, as he was only beating tier 3 horse in Easywork and Mt Leinster.
Tier 1 horses EA and Aba resting in their stables
Tier 2 horse Andy D and Captain G resting in their stables.
Its an interesting conundrum for the Donnellys having Asterion Forlonge Shishkin and The Big Getaway

[Saxon Warrior]

I have AF backed for the Supreme @ 33/1 and no bet on him for The Ballymore.
However I question the value of the Leopardstown G1, as he was only beating tier 3 horse in Easywork and Mt Leinster.
Tier 1 horses EA and Aba resting in their stables
Tier 2 horse Andy D and Captain G resting in their stables.
Its an interesting conundrum for the Donnellys having Asterion Forlonge Shishkin and The Big Getaway

It was a weak Grade 1 lacking depth, but then so was the Fiddlerontheroof British Grade 1 which looked awful form.

It’s got to be even money or shorter that the winner of the Supreme didn’t go anywhere near a Grade 1 this season.

Mt Leinster and Easywork are 170 and 160 on BFX at the moment, it doesn’t look like the consensus is that they are Grade 1 horses that ran into a superstar.

Fiddlerontheroof beat Jeremys Flame (760 on BFX for Supreme) and Son of Camas (180 on BFX for Supreme).

The Grade 1 in Ireland at Christmas won by Abacadabras was a simple enough run when beating a mare rated 128 Heaven Help Us into 2nd (1000 on BFX) and Embittered (who isn’t even entered for the Supreme).

Only the Royal Bond of the Grade 1’s has any substance, and from the placed horses only Abacadabras is a likely runner here.

Interesting that there are three 2M Grade 1’s before Cheltenham and only one in Britain.

[Jrow]

I have AF backed for the Supreme @ 33/1 and no bet on him for The Ballymore.
However I question the value of the Leopardstown G1, as he was only beating tier 3 horse in Easywork and Mt Leinster.
Tier 1 horses EA and Aba resting in their stables
Tier 2 horse Andy D and Captain G resting in their stables.
Its an interesting conundrum for the Donnellys having Asterion Forlonge Shishkin and The Big Getaway

Its easy to call EasyWork and Mt Leinster Tier 3 horses now they have been put in their place, but you had to reserve that judgement before hand.

Too much Hindsight and recency bias behaviour on the go here. We really dont know for certain that ABA is Tier 1, Hes ran 4 times and not come close to matching the RPR AF and Shiskin have achieved. Hopefully he is and we will find out come march.

To win a grade 1 by 9.5 lengths on only your second start over hurdles isnt bad going either, regardless of the opposition

I think people are too quick to downplay horses achievements

[charlie]

Abacadabras is unlikely to become a horse people like to talk about, as we know he's not the best 2 mile hurdler in the yard.

Therefore, we are inclined to go searching around the houses for other formlines.

I am still, very hopeful, the Abacadabras / Envoi Allen e/w double that we (I ) put up after their run, is the best bet of the week


It does mean though, there isn't really a lot else to say about him.

Arguably still has the best form of the horses that'll run in the race.... he has some question marks with attitude & head carry.

I am surprised he isn't more popular tbh and I don't think he gets the credit he deserves, perhaps because of EA.

EA is the only horse stopping him going into this as a multiple grade 1 winner and he hasn't put a foot wrong outside of that, winning all his races on the snaff. Were it not for traffic and a poor jump at the last vs EA, I think he could have arguably beaten him. He travelled all over the field between 2 and 1 out and it was just that bad jump at the last that lost his chance. Darver Star finishing half a length behind Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle gives the form a very solid shape, and in my opinion the best piece of form on offer.

Shishkin is priced up on reputation and visually impressive performances in weaker races. Asterion Forlonge won well the other day but I question that form and his jumping is no way near as slick or straight as as Aba (who also has the benefit of Cheltenham experience). Fiddlerontheroof looks good but the form doesn't look great. Chantry House is interesting, but could very well be Ballymore bound. I think Captain Guiness is too inexperienced. Master Debonair won well LTO but lost at Cheltenham to a horse Abacadabras just beat comfortably. The rest don't tempt me.

If Gordon confirmed today that Envoi Allen was going here then he would be even money or odds on. Abacadabras is 5 times the price and I think his form and way he runs puts him bang there. If I was starting again from scratch I would have him over Shishkin, AF and the others I have mentioned.

[ryanh97]

I am surprised he isn't more popular tbh and I don't think he gets the credit he deserves, perhaps because of EA.

EA is the only horse stopping him going into this as a multiple grade 1 winner and he hasn't put a foot wrong outside of that, winning all his races on the snaff. Were it not for traffic and a poor jump at the last vs EA, I think he could have arguably beaten him. He travelled all over the field between 2 and 1 out and it was just that bad jump at the last that lost his chance. Darver Star finishing half a length behind Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle gives the form a very solid shape, and in my opinion the best piece of form on offer.

Shishkin is priced up on reputation and visually impressive performances in weaker races. Asterion Forlonge won well the other day but I question that form and his jumping is no way near as slick or straight as as Aba (who also has the benefit of Cheltenham experience). Fiddlerontheroof looks good but the form doesn't look great. Chantry House is interesting, but could very well be Ballymore bound. I think Captain Guiness is too inexperienced. Master Debonair won well LTO but lost at Cheltenham to a horse Abacadabras just beat comfortably. The rest don't tempt me.

If Gordon confirmed today that Envoi Allen was going here then he would be even money or odds on. Abacadabras is 5 times the price and I think his form and way he runs puts him bang there. If I was starting again from scratch I would have him over Shishkin, AF and the others I have mentioned.

My thoughts exactly Charlie, just written a lot better

[Saxon Warrior]

My thoughts exactly Charlie, just written a lot better

His Grade 1 form in the Royal Bond represents the only decent depth to a Grade 1 race this season, when the Supreme starts on Tuesday 10th March.

We know most of what Abacadabras is, from his runs, but whether it’s good enough c/w horses we haven’t got close to the max on yet, like Shishkin and Asteriod Forlonge is the key debate.