Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Be interesting to see how short Shiskin goes off tomorrow, it’s not a terrible race

[darlojim]

Starting to look like AF and Shiskin in the Supreme and The Big Getaway in the Ballymore to me.

Thats always been the most likely targets. Mullins will be more interested in splitting his 2 up so Shiskin didn't really affect AF and TBG especially when Mullins was of the opinion TBG looked a ballymore horse.

[Redbridge]

No wish to alarm anyone but I have the weirdest of dreams and last night I dreamt that Shishkin fell in todays race at Huntingdon not once but twice, I only hold a couple of free tenner bets on him and he's in my dreams..........just wait to the bigger bets line-up

[AnFiieLD.]

PP/BFSB have cut Asterion Forlonge to 9/2 and pushed Shishkin out to 5/1 this morning

[Redbridge]

Probably heard about my dreams

[charlie]

IMO there has been a big over reaction on Asterion Forlonge.

Mt Leinster doesn't set any sort of supreme standard, and as Kev pointed out the form looks a lot more solid than it actually is. AF has clocked an average time, showed a tendency to jump out to his right and beat Easywork who has dispatched of Mt Leinster (who we know isn't that good) and beat Unexcepted & Discorama over 2m which also doesn't look too good. Is that form good enough to win this? It's certainly not good enough to be 9/2 IMO, and ahead of Abacadabras in the betting, who I would have every day of the week at the current prices.

I appreciate that even by the days end Asterion Forlonge will have achieved more than Shishkin, but I am always going to be picking holes at 9/2. I was surprised with Willies post race comments too. I appreciate horses can surprise trainers and sometimes you just don't know till they hit a racetrack, but I'd like to think someone who has trained multiple supreme winners would know if he has a potential candidate as opposed to saying afterwards 'I thought he was a 3 miler'. It's by no means a big point, I just thought it was worth mentioning because if the form doesn't look great, the time doesn't look great, Paul didn't pick him and Willie didn't think he was a supreme horse, then that's a lot to collectively think about if you are wading in to 9/2.

Credit to those on at a bigger price, well done.

[Arkle]

Well said Charlie totally agree time was pretty similar to a wave of the sea in the juvenile race faster first half then slowed not for me AF

[ComplyOrDie]

IMO there has been a big over reaction on Asterion Forlonge.

Mt Leinster doesn't set any sort of supreme standard, and as Kev pointed out the form looks a lot more solid than it actually is. AF has clocked an average time, showed a tendency to jump out to his right and beat Easywork who has dispatched of Mt Leinster (who we know isn't that good) and beat Unexcepted & Discorama over 2m which also doesn't look too good. Is that form good enough to win this? It's certainly not good enough to be 9/2 IMO, and ahead of Abacadabras in the betting, who I would have every day of the week at the current prices.

I think it was Quevega that kept making the points about Mt. Leinsters form lines being franked, so he must have been doing something right, even if probably not quite good enough, but he was beaten 13 1/2 lengths by Asterion Forlonge, which is plenty far enough for me. Think it could have been further with a stiffer finish like Cheltenham too, this will suit AF IMO.

Easywork beat Unexcepted over 2m 4f, which is too far for Unexcepted, IMO, which is what it boils down too, so taking that literally would be dangerous, maybe Unexcepted just isn't that good, but he was hammered by Easywork either way.

I appreciate that even by the days end Asterion Forlonge will have achieved more than Shishkin, but I am always going to be picking holes at 9/2. I was surprised with Willies post race comments too. I appreciate horses can surprise trainers and sometimes you just don't know till they hit a racetrack, but I'd like to think someone who has trained multiple supreme winners would know if he has a potential candidate as opposed to saying afterwards 'I thought he was a 3 miler'. It's by no means a big point, I just thought it was worth mentioning because if the form doesn't look great, the time doesn't look great, Paul didn't pick him and Willie didn't think he was a supreme horse, then that's a lot to collectively think about if you are wading in to 9/2.

Credit to those on at a bigger price, well done.

I'd agree in that for achievements to date Abacadabras has done more and should edge it over Asterion Forlonge, from a price perspective, but AF has just won a reliable Supreme trial in recent times by a fair margin, so can also understand the overreaction, especially not seeing Aba out either.

Shishkin is the worst priced of the lot, but that's another conversation altogether.

Comments from the trainer would not worry me, nor would the fact Paul Townend 'picked' the wrong one, that seems to happen a fair bit, not convinced he always gets first choice, he's not exactly Ruby, and unless anyone can confirm otherwise I'll stick to that belief I feel.

The above is plenty easy enough for me to say with the big prices I have, that said, AF or Aba is a great result for me anyway, so I'm happy with either going in

[Faugheen_Machine]

All fair comments Charlie and only right to pick at him given his current price.

For me, he is really solid and deserves to be at the head of the market given his win at the weekend.

He's a staying 2 miler, perhaps in the mould of Champagne Fever, rather than Altior, but with that he is a very uncomplicated ride. They will jump out and try to make all. Its a shame Ruby isn't still around as it's the type of horse he excelled on at Cheltenham.

The jumping to the right does worry me slightly.

[charlie]

The above is plenty easy enough for me to say with the big prices I have, that said, AF or Aba is a great result for me anyway, so I'm happy with either going in

Good counter and like I said, credit to those at bigger prices cause you are laughing. I 100% agree that Shishkin is the worst priced of the lot but then iv'e got 40's and 33's so hopefully I'll be laughing too

[charlie]

All fair comments Charlie and only right to pick at him given his current price.

For me, he is really solid and deserves to be at the head of the market given his win at the weekend.

He's a staying 2 miler, perhaps in the mould of Champagne Fever, rather than Altior, but with that he is a very uncomplicated ride. They will jump out and try to make all. Its a shame Ruby isn't still around as it's the type of horse he excelled on at Cheltenham.

The jumping to the right does worry me slightly.

Do you think his form is better than Abacadabras ?

[darlojim]

As many others have alluded to on here, Townend may not necessarily get 1st pick all the time and it was interesting that Ruby said pre race that he would have ridden AF if he was still riding..

[Faugheen_Machine]

Do you think his form is better than Abacadabras ?

I think the win on Sunday was probably better than Aba's form but it's difficult to be certain.

There was no hiding place in Sunday's race, with AF and Easywork going at it from a long way out until EW had had enough. Mt Leinster is a decent horse and he couldn't land a blow. It's the nature of the victory, more than the bare form, that impressed me.

[archie]

OR/best RPR

153/156 Asterion Forlonge
149/151 Abacadabras

When your best form is losing to a stayer and your best winning form is beating a proper stayer, I think that the form has to have a question mark against it.

[germanshepherd]

envoi allen isn't just a stayer is he. he'd be a short fav for the supreme.