Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[MTR]

Really hoping the rumours aren’t true, Malone road (supreme) envoi Allen ballymore my biggest outlays for the festival come March. Think could potentially be a double blow of envoi being routed down the supreme road.

Biggest play last season was Le richbourg and got burnt on that also! Can’t seem to get that bit of luck.

[Can't Catch Me]

I can't even think about that option yet

Sure there are plenty of us in this boat mate

You'd like to think stable money is down on the Ballymore already and they stick with that plan for EA. Andy Dufresne and Abacadabras can be their Supreme horses!

[Lobos]

EA is a Ballymore horse through and through. You only need to watch his race back to see that. Samcro all over again.

[Can't Catch Me]

EA is a Ballymore horse through and through. You only need to watch his race back to see that. Samcro all over again.

I personally believe he could win either race in the absence of MR. He certainly isn't short of speed, and is a much speedier type than Samcro to my eyes... Whilst there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side, he's by a crack miler after all.

[Lobos]

I personally believe he could win either race in the absence of MR. He certainly isn't short of speed, and is a much speedier type than Samcro to my eyes... Whilst there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side, he's by a crack miler after all.

They crawled for a mile and a half the other day and only quickened up the last 3f . He did show real speed at the end of his race and was electric over the last 2 hurdles. The fact he took it up from the start and the way he travelled screams the longer race to me.

[Lobos]

MR being backed on exchanges for Supreme.

[billymag]

I personally believe he could win either race in the absence of MR. He certainly isn't short of speed, and is a much speedier type than Samcro to my eyes... Whilst there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side, he's by a crack miler after all.

Think that might be a touch of the recency bias with that assumption, certainly dont mean to offend but people are forgetting how good Samcro was in that Ballymore and how much speed he showed.

In fact just for some substance ive dug out Simon Rowlands piece on him
"The Gordon Elliott trained 6 year old had not set the stopwatch on fire when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown but could not be faulted here, running the 2 miles and 5 furlongs 2.3 seconds quicker than the useful handicapper Blue Berry did winning the Coral Cup but carrying 5lbs more.
That pushes Samcro up to 161, which is comfortably top of the novice hurdlers and within touching distance of Champion Hurdle winning class."

[Lobos]

There's no way EA would still be the price he is currently in the Supreme if they were going that route and especially if MR was injured. The relentless amount of money for him in the Ballymore speaks volumes.

[Can't Catch Me]

Think that might be a touch of the recency bias with that assumption, certainly dont mean to offend but people are forgetting how good Samcro was in that Ballymore and how much speed he showed.

In fact just for some substance ive dug out Simon Rowlands piece on him
"The Gordon Elliott trained 6 year old had not set the stopwatch on fire when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown but could not be faulted here, running the 2 miles and 5 furlongs 2.3 seconds quicker than the useful handicapper Blue Berry did winning the Coral Cup but carrying 5lbs more.
That pushes Samcro up to 161, which is comfortably top of the novice hurdlers and within touching distance of Champion Hurdle winning class."

Fair point billy. I wasnt particularity suggesting that Samcro is slow per se... just that EA appears a speedier type to me.

[Can't Catch Me]

There's no way EA would still be the price he is currently in the Supreme if they were going that route and especially if MR was injured. The relentless amount of money for him in the Ballymore speaks volumes.

To be clear, I dont think this is happening! Im getting the horse well ahead of the cart here.... And am seriously hoping it doesn't for my position... but if MR was to be injured and miss Chelts, I don't think anyone could rule it out.

[Hurricane fly]

Elliot would have Andy Dufresne for the Supreme who I think would be better suited than EA

[Lobos]

Elliot would have Andy Dufresne for the Supreme who I think would be better suited than EA

And at least 10 others I'd imagine.

[JackieMoon33]

What is it that makes people think Andy Dufresne is a Supreme horse? Is there substance to this or does it suit their view that they want Envoi Allen to run in the Ballymore?

Personally I'd think both would be at their best in the Ballymore and as they have different owners, I don't think they'll be deliberately kept apart either. Andy Dufresne came from the a point background and his size and breeding would suggest middle distances to me.

[Can't Catch Me]

I agree Jackie. I see Andy Dufresne as a Ballymore type primarily and have backed accordingly. I think this debate has run away with itself based on the rumours about MR and his well being....

Assuming Malone Road is fit and well and makes Cheltenham then this is almost certainly a pointless debate. At the start of the season we would, no doubt all agree, it was quite clear cut... Malone Road to the Supreme and Envoi Allen to the Ballymore as their best novices and the others would fit in where best suited them.

But if MR doesnt make it to the Festival and the rumoured injury is worse than expected, then as we stand I would suggest EA and AD could be his two best novices. Its quite possible they could be significantly better than the rest. So even if they have different owners, would he fire both bullets in the same race?

Obviously its pure hot air at the minute and a lot of water to travel under a lot of bridges. But its certainly muddied what appeared to be crystal clear waters.

[jack1092]

What is it that makes people think Andy Dufresne is a Supreme horse? Is there substance to this or does it suit their view that they want Envoi Allen to run in the Ballymore?

Personally I'd think both would be at their best in the Ballymore and as they have different owners, I don't think they'll be deliberately kept apart either. Andy Dufresne came from the a point background and his size and breeding would suggest middle distances to me.

Agree, no idea where people are getting it from. They've watched him a horse once, maybe twice if you've seen his point to come up with the judgement hes a 2miler!