Ryanair 2020

[The King Pimm]

It’s whether CPS turns up fit though, he doesn’t seem to race that often and like Altior has questions marks whether it will be in attendance at next years festival. Also CPS has yet to race at Cheltenham before and he may struggle with the Hill whilst APT clearly gets up the Hill

[Kevloaf]

I don't think he is bomb proof but do think he won't be 10/1 on the day. For me that is as good as APT & you are absolutely right in being cautious of backing horses 10+ at the festival, Min hasnt exactly been 'over campaigned' so for me he is likely to carry the level of form he showed this season into next season.

I accept that 1 of either DDS or Fakir will run there but connections have already viewed Melon as a potential GC horse and with the GC being the pinnacle of the sport I could easily see Allaho and Samcro go there instead of here. Connections of Allaho have APT for this race and with O'leary winding down how many more GC shots is he going to have?

The 10/1 being value is dependent the majority of horses not going here which isnt by any means a certainty 11 months out but I do think Min is a backable price given the likelihood that the majority of the current challengers in the betting wont show up for this race.

Hmm. How many of your what ifs need to click though for it to work out that way? On one hand you're happy horses being split by owner then in the next we've got Melon up against Al Boum Photo?


"I don't think he'll be 10/1 on the day".... no, he won't. It's quite a commitment beating the SP though, and unless you're going mob-handed attempting to beat SP creating it's rarely worth the risk in my opinion.

With 10 months to go at 10/1, I'd rather wait until 3 months to go with NRNB and take 5/1 and have twice the stake on if I still fancied him as strongly.


10/1 shots, as singles, for a person using a scale of 1-5 or 1-10 pts per bet doesn't appeal to me, however if I was attempting a book on the race I would...but the Ryanair is way too hard to make a book on relative to other races.


As I did say initially, it's a fair price, just not one for me.... I just thought your reasoning was a bit 'perfect case scenario' - when historically, he's unlikely to even go off favourite for the race... not many 10 year olds do, so he's still going to be a 'backable' price on the actual day of race market IMO, but we'll have loads more information about his challengers, level of form etc.

[Hardy Eustace]

Hmm. How many of your what ifs need to click though for it to work out that way? On one hand you're happy horses being split by owner then in the next we've got Melon up against Al Boum Photo?


"I don't think he'll be 10/1 on the day".... no, he won't. It's quite a commitment beating the SP though, and unless you're going mob-handed attempting to beat SP creating it's rarely worth the risk in my opinion.

With 10 months to go at 10/1, I'd rather wait until 3 months to go with NRNB and take 5/1 and have twice the stake on if I still fancied him as strongly.


10/1 shots, as singles, for a person using a scale of 1-5 or 1-10 pts per bet doesn't appeal to me, however if I was attempting a book on the race I would...but the Ryanair is way too hard to make a book on relative to other races.


As I did say initially, it's a fair price, just not one for me.... I just thought your reasoning was a bit 'perfect case scenario' - when historically, he's unlikely to even go off favourite for the race... not many 10 year olds do, so he's still going to be a 'backable' price on the actual day of race market IMO, but we'll have loads more information about his challengers, level of form etc.

You make some good points there. I am definitely looking at it as 'best case scenario' and it rarely pans out like that. Will look forward to seeing how the puzzle unfold over the next 11 months!

[SharpHat]

Got willhill to add lostintranslation to the market. Added him as 7-1 favourite..... not what I was hoping for

[Arkle]

I can see allaho going gold cup aswell as lostintranslation think a plud tard should try the champion this year probably be a smaller field head of the market injury prone perfect opportunity! Min was lucky this years winning that race Townsend did a great steering job! My pick at the moment is samcro I just don’t see me winning a gold cup owners have delta work for gold cup the way he won the marsh was impressive only worry is do they go for the gold cup holding fire on this race! Defi is overpriced @20 but same dilemma with CC campaign

[Kevloaf]

I can see allaho going gold cup aswell as lostintranslation think a plud tard should try the champion this year probably be a smaller field head of the market injury prone perfect opportunity! Min was lucky this years winning that race Townsend did a great steering job! My pick at the moment is samcro I just don’t see me winning a gold cup owners have delta work for gold cup the way he won the marsh was impressive only worry is do they go for the gold cup holding fire on this race! Defi is overpriced @20 but same dilemma with CC campaign

Was it that impressive?
He 'battled' past Melon who doesn't hav a clue how to win a race
and was better than a dinosaur in 3rd

[ComplyOrDie]

I think the Ryanair is rock hard to decide right now, I have 6 or 7 potential bets in the race, I need to narrow that down given the prices available.

I have the following for the top of the market:

Min - Just got home in front this season, will be 10 next season, that's a negative?, probably no improvement left, regression possible.

Samcro - 'Battled back' to get his head in front, although Melon doesn't seem to want to win, so how much did Samcro battle really. Just seen Kevs note about Faugheen being in proximity too which should be taken into account.

A Plus Tard - Couldn't get in front this season, possible improver, but would have expected to be ahead of Saint Calvados, another that can improve again. No reason for result to be reversed, currently.

Allaho - Likely overstretched (just) in the RSA, would be interested if he came here, but will he?

Melon - I'm not sure it's in his breeding but I'd prefer him out in trip, he seems to not win a battle, like ever, so possibly best over further, but has the ability for this IMO, just frustrating.

Saint Calvados - Current one that interests me the most, only going to be 8 next season, so still room for improvement. Had trainer doubts but they quickly disappeared after watching the performance in the Ryanair this season.

Defi Du Seuil - Got to come here after that s**t show in the QMCC. Always had doubts about him being a top level 2 mile chaser myself, won some weak renewals of G1's during the season that led to false hope, IMO. Interested when back up in trip.

Angels Breath - Can't help but feel a bit unlucky not to have made it to the Marsh. Would like an update on condition after a nasty injury, but if back to best could be interesting at a price.

Fakir D'Oudairies - QMCC. Have very little doubt at the moment he will not end up here.

Ryders Onthe Storm - Jumping causes me concern, it wasn't just the one he fell at. I think he struggled to go the pace and jump, but I could be wrong. Certainly has a fair level of ability, that I didn't give him credit for prior to the festival.


This is just me summarising the current market with notes I have made, and do make every season. I still end up backing ones I shouldn't mind

I'm also sure some members will agree and disagree, as we all view these things differently

[Arkle]

From being pulled up out of breath at limerick to winning was impressive! Times would suggest they ran quicker than Ryanair (marsh 5.07 - Ryanair 5.19 given another furlong to go) thought if samcro hadn’t of went through that second last fence he would of won quite easily battled well Davy Russell spoke very highly of him recently I was always try and narrow a race down to 2-3 and he’s definitely in there if going this route

[Arkle]

My worry with angels breath is he finds nothing when asked could be another Charlie

[ComplyOrDie]

My worry with angels breath is he finds nothing when asked could be another Charlie

Wouldn't worry about him finding anything, until we know he is sound, otherwise he may not even make the track, which would be a real shame if that were the case.

Don't know if anyone on here has an update?

[Craigy14]

Got willhill to add lostintranslation to the market. Added him as 7-1 favourite..... not what I was hoping for

Even though it’s Tizzard can you really see them going for the Ryanair after finishing 3rd beaten 1 and a half lengths in a gold cup?

Imo absolutely no chance of that happening.

He ran a cracking race and was there with a chance, definitely be back next year and if they are sensible and miss the king George with him can see him being bang there again next year.

[Hardy Eustace]

From being pulled up out of breath at limerick to winning was impressive! Times would suggest they ran quicker than Ryanair (marsh 5.07 - Ryanair 5.19 given another furlong to go) thought if samcro hadn’t of went through that second last fence he would of won quite easily battled well Davy Russell spoke very highly of him recently I was always try and narrow a race down to 2-3 and he’s definitely in there if going this route

Thats it - will he go this route? Or will they be tempted for a crack at the GC? Would love to see him step up in trip myself. Certainly on my radar for both races.

[Kevloaf]

Got willhill to add lostintranslation to the market. Added him as 7-1 favourite..... not what I was hoping for

That is horrible.

His Any Race price is surely bigger than that?!

[Kevloaf]

From being pulled up out of breath at limerick to winning was impressive! Times would suggest they ran quicker than Ryanair (marsh 5.07 - Ryanair 5.19 given another furlong to go) thought if samcro hadn’t of went through that second last fence he would of won quite easily battled well Davy Russell spoke very highly of him recently I was always try and narrow a race down to 2-3 and he’s definitely in there if going this route

It was impressive in terms of winning a Marsh, not impressive as a piece of form looking at next years festival though you could argue?

Technically I'm just debating what your definition of 'impressive' is.

A Plus Tard was 'impressive' in winning the Novice Handicap Chase last year.

The RP comments back it up too....

Vautour's JLT win was impressive.
Black Hercules stayed on well.
Yorkhill kept on.
Shattered Love stayed on strongly.
Defi Du Seuil kept on strongly
Samcro just held on


With a view to the Ryanair, I don't think you can say it was particularly impressive. It's a nice piece of form depending on how highly you rate Melon as a Cheltenham horse, but it's not a piece of form that would put him down as the one to beat, in isolation.

[Craigy14]

My worry with angels breath is he finds nothing when asked could be another Charlie

One I’m definitely keeping an eye on but annoyingly paddy p clipped him from 33/1 to 20/1 I think it was.

I’m going on the basis of Henderson having 2 other runners for the gold cup in Santini and Champ.

He looked impressive in his 2 chase starts but need an update and even a run to pull the trigger in a single.