Winners in 2019

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Agreed with Kev; at this stage I’m not thinking definite winner I’m looking at a race and looking to see if I can get 2/3 onside that will be a lot shorter come the day

[Saxon Warrior]

Absolutely definite that any Long-range antepost bets have to be aimed at:-

* Horses that could shorten dramatically - in the backers opinion.
* Horses that could run in and win the races you are backing them in.

There is no point putting money on horses 9-12 months in advance unless you think the price could contract, and the horse has a chance in the selected race.

I too take positions long-term with the aim of cashout if things don’t work out, whilst also adding new selections to the book as the season begins to reveal more information.

Once NRNB comes into play then a further assessment of my book takes place (cashout/new entrants etc again).

The aim is to have as many big prices in the bag, that are well above the market chances of winning that the horses have at the start of Festival week.

This makes me an advocate for a spread of horses in a spread of races at double-figure prices, rather than backing long range banker bets at initially shorter odds.

That way I need less winners at bigger prices to make a profit, and on several occasions in recent years by the end of Day 1 I have been fortunate to have made a profit for the whole week. That’s the master plan each year, I think we all would be looking for the same thing, with slight adaptions we have to suit our own personal betting strategies.

[Kevloaf]

Absolutely definite that any Long-range antepost bets have to be aimed at:-

* Horses that could shorten dramatically - in the backers opinion.
* Horses that could run in and win the races you are backing them in.

There is no point putting money on horses 9-12 months in advance unless you think the price could contract, and the horse has a chance in the selected race.

I too take positions long-term with the aim of cashout if things don’t work out, whilst also adding new selections to the book as the season begins to reveal more information.

Once NRNB comes into play then a further assessment of my book takes place (cashout/new entrants etc again).

The aim is to have as many big prices in the bag, that are well above the market chances of winning that the horses have at the start of Festival week.

This makes me an advocate for a spread of horses in a spread of races at double-figure prices, rather than backing long range banker bets at initially shorter odds.

That way I need less winners at bigger prices to make a profit, and on several occasions in recent years by the end of Day 1 I have been fortunate to have made a profit for the whole week. That’s the master plan each year, I think we all would be looking for the same thing, with slight adaptions we have to suit our own personal betting strategies.

Yeah, absolutely.

The only other variation is (and I don't think anyone on here does it)... purely back to beat SP and then lay off absolutely everything to completely free-roll.

I've considered it but a judgement call that it'd take the fun out of picking winners and turn it into a 'system' stopped me. A very good friend of mine does it (with golfers) but he has £120k sat in Betfair to arse about with.

[TCH29]

Agree with both you. Given you have to factor in what their season performance is and the chance of injury, my estimate and approach is that I need to think the SP will be 50% or more lower than the AP price. If you believe you price will contract that much we’re the horse to make it to the race for, then take the AP. It should work out in the long run, because odds of injury or picking the wrong race across an AP book should be much lower than 1 in 2. Form is the tricky one. That’s why I tend not to do it on the Triumph at all.

[archie]

Just as an addendum to this, a stat on last season's winners.

Date of first race of the season:

Klassical Dream 26/12
Duc Des Genievres 18/12
Beware The Bear 1/12
Espoir D'Allen 10/11
Roksana 2/2
A Plus Tard 24/11
Le Breuil 4/11

City Island 1/8
Topofthegame 7/12
William Henry 26/12
Altior 8/12
Tiger Roll 16/11
Band Of Outlaws 9/12
Envoi Allen 2/12

Defi Du Seuil 18/11
Sire Du Berlais 10/11
Frodon 28/10
Paisley Park 28/10
Siruh Du Lac 8/11
Eglantine Du Seuil 21/8
Any Second Now 10/11

Pentland Hills 25/2
Ch'tibello 20/10
Minella Indo 29/12
Al Boum Photo 1/1
Hazel Hill 15/2
Croco Bay 31/7
Early Doors

Thus, winners by starting month:
1 July
2 August
0 September
3 October
8 November
10 December
1 January
3 February

[The King Pimm]

Cheers Archie, that’s a very interesting post and something I will bear in mind from now on. I’ve already got 52 ante post bets on. Mostly singles from Horses many of you have suggested or backed personally but I’m going to ease up for now unless something stands out.

[archie]

Individual seasons will vary depending on the autumn weather but the figures will be no real surprise when you think that most NH horses will come in from their summer break from about mid-July to the first week in August. It will typically take 10 to 12 weeks before the horse is ready for a run so most will not be ready until mid-October at the earliest and the first G1s are in November.

[Kevloaf]

Very interesting!

How easy is it for you to go back and look at a few other seasons?

Not a "trend" I've ever seen examined really but one that I'd actually think there was plenty of merit behind.



Perhaps last year would be an outlyer though, due to there being no rain?

[Kevloaf]

Bump.

Is this what you were after TKP?

Thanks Nortons who .... if it's correct.