Winners in 2019

[Quevega]

Food for thought.
Before placing any bets.

I enjoy seeing and reading everyones thoughts and fancies on here but it got me thinking about this years winners.

Following is a list of Winners at this years festival. (excluding handicaps)

When were these first highlighted/discussed/even mentioned on a serious level on here ???
(I appreciate some may have been mentioned in passing)

Klassical Dream - December ???

Duc Des Geneivres - March ??? - probably mentioned early on and then we saw it run once or twice and backburned it.

Espoir D'allen - After the race itself

Roksana - January ???

Le Breuil - March ???


City Island - December ???

TopoftheGame - Must have been in the summer sometime (big tick n box there)

Altior - Another Tick (no brainer)

Envoi Allen - Another early one no doubt (although most got put away by the trainer)


Defi Du Seuill - I expect an early one also (another tick)

Frodon - January/February ???

Paisley Park - November ???

Eglantine du Seuil - Probably got a mention early on then we forgot about it till 100yds from the line (some about 30 minutes before the off, Mr Scooby and one or two others)


Pentland Hills - March ??? and that's being kind.

Minella Indo - March ???

Hazel Hill - January maybe ???

Al Boum Photo - Another summer one no doubt (tick in the box)



Out of 17 races, I reckon 5 or 6 were seriously considered early doors and a similar number 5/6 were not considered much at all. The others came to our attention through form and the poor form or injury of others during the season.

Which goes to show how tricky it is at this stage of the season. Roughly a third of the winners we already know, another third we will learn to know and the last third we've got no clue till March.

Before anyone pops up I do appreciate many will have been mentioned at some stage but this is just my memory of how serious they were considered in general on here at different times of the season. Just best guesses from memory.
If anyone can be more accurate then please add on.

[ComplyOrDie]

Klassical Dream was mentioned the season before by Scooby, and it was probably a little tongue in cheek (he'll reject this claim ) it was still a mention.

Eglantine Du Seuil was late Feb

Defi Du Seuil 50's in December*!

They are the ones I remember because I was involved in them early.

*Deleted the post about the 50's in December because I forgot to bloody back him, still haunts me now! The rest of the conversation is there though!

[archie]

If you have the time, it's not a bad discipline to go back to last season's championship race threads and read them up to the same time last year or even up to the end of December.

Most of my betting involves ruling out horses who won't win and it can be educational to see which assumptions played out well and which didn't.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Definitely a good point to raise. One thing I will say though is the price of a couple that were put up before September that went on to win. ABP (cheers Scooby) was widely available at 33s and TOTG (cheers again Sean) at 28s price boost with Ladbrokes (sadly cost me my account) would have ensured a profitable festival for me even without any other winners.

[charlie]

Definitely a good point to raise. One thing I will say though is the price of a couple that were put up before September that went on to win. ABP (cheers Scooby) was widely available at 33s and TOTG (cheers again Sean) at 28s price boost with Ladbrokes (sadly cost me my account) would have ensured a profitable festival for me even without any other winners.

Good point. Quite a few of us were also on Envoi Allen @ 33/1 as well

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Good point. Quite a few of us were also on Envoi Allen @ 33/1 as well

Yeah missed that one, although certain with my love of cash out I would have cashed out after Elliots’s mid-season comments

[ComplyOrDie]

If you have the time, it's not a bad discipline to go back to last season's championship race threads and read them up to the same time last year or even up to the end of December.

Most of my betting involves ruling out horses who won't win and it can be educational to see which assumptions played out well and which didn't.

Some of the crap I wrote makes me cringe, but I'm not likely to stop anytime soon

[Scooby91]

Good point. Quite a few of us were also on Envoi Allen @ 33/1 as well

Envoi allen was early,
Just the mention of his name still hurts. (Thanks gordon)
Ultimately Very poor by myself cashing him completely for profit. Should have cashed for stake back and kept the remaining ammount open. something i hope to have learned from, when i have the cashout feature.

Vinndication another, he diddnt win, but id have been very happy with the 25s or 33s ew for the JLT, regardless of the result.

[Istabraq]

Frodon was always on the radar though confidence was skewered by the possibility of a Gold Cup tilt...

[Eggs]

...my only positive contribution (I’m genuinely not in the same league as you lot) was highlighting Roksana @ 22-1 for the Mares Hurdle when I joined this forum around January. After it came 2nd at Aintree in 2018, Skelton said this was the target, and to be fair he managed to deliver (if a little fortunately).

[Quevega]

Obviously forgot the Tiger.

[jono]

Timely reminder before the season gets going for sure. I'd echo what RC says...

Definitely a good point to raise. One thing I will say though is the price of a couple that were put up before September that went on to win. ABP (cheers Scooby) was widely available at 33s and TOTG (cheers again Sean) at 28s price boost with Ladbrokes (sadly cost me my account) would have ensured a profitable festival for me even without any other winners.

Without building a book and covering a host of horses it's near on impossible to pick more winners than losers at the festival antepost. It's hard enough even if you were to bet only on the week of the festival to do so. You just have to hope that getting the early bigger prices at times for just a select couple of horses will be enough to swing the profit/loss in your favour.

Also it's very easy to get drawn towards the very top trainers - Mullins, Henderson, Elliott and once again Nicholls. They'll for now still be the best place to start. And some races favour one over others but we still had the following winners in 15 of the 28 races come from:

Cromwell
Skelton (x2)
de Bromhead (x2)
Pauling
O'Brien (x2)
Hobbs
Lavelle
Williams
Walsh
Rowley
Case
Brassil

(some obviously are higher profile than others in there)
come from outside that top quartet being responsible for the remaining 13. Even taking handicaps and races like the Foxhunters aside,in the grade 1 races it's a fairly even split:

Mullins / Henderson / Elliott / Nicholls = 8
Cromwell / Skelton / Brasil / Hobbs / Lavelle / de Bromhead = 6

[Kevloaf]

For me, placing bets this early is more about beating the SP for me than nailing the winner.


The mental switch comes much later, after the Dublin Racing Festival... where then I'll look at my 'book' for each and every race individually, check my position and adjust (cash out/lay off/back something else/increase stakes) depending on what perceived value I have and what I actually think will win each race.

In some cases it pays to be wrong too, which is another rick in the 'back stuff now' camp.

Big difference between backing a horse to win at Cheltenham in September and backing a horse that will be shorter the week before... a fine balancing act

[Quevega]

For me, placing bets this early is more about beating the SP for me than nailing the winner.


The mental switch comes much later, after the Dublin Racing Festival... where then I'll look at my 'book' for each and every race individually, check my position and adjust (cash out/lay off/back something else/increase stakes) depending on what perceived value I have and what I actually think will win each race.

In some cases it pays to be wrong too, which is another rick in the 'back stuff now' camp.

Big difference between backing a horse to win at Cheltenham in September and backing a horse that will be shorter the week before... a fine balancing act

I'd concur with this.
Personally, looking back at this does encourage me to be a little more imaginitive where possible.
But also don't ignore the obvious if I think it is value, equally don't just back the obvious if it don't seem like value.
And as Kev kind of says.
Some bets we make now will be good bets that turn to bad. And some will be bad bets that turn to good.
Just depends how the cookie crumbles.
My aim with most of these bets is to have some runners at bigger prices on the day, so I can let loose when I have more evidence nearer the day. Much like kev.

[TCH29]

I’m sure I flagged Espoir D’Allen on here some months before the festival. I got him ew at a big price (40, I think) a way out too.

You’re right in principle that a lot of the winners would have been huge prices this time last year, or not even priced up(!), but the nuggets are there.

This year, I think Eldorado Allen in the CH is a huge price currently. He’d have been 2nd fav by the Supreme IMO, had he not got injured after being taken out in his second hurdle race last year. If he’d finished top 3/4, he’d be shorter. And the Tizzards rated him well above EdN last Autumn, and he’s 16s.

Similarly, if TD can jump well, his position in the Supreme on unfavourable ground makes him a massive price at 25s, especially given his target is confirmed.

Similarly you could make a case Reserve Tank is a huge price at 33s for the RSA given how he finished the season, Tizzards penchant for 3m chasers, and the fact he has since said he regretted bowing to Robbie Power’s advice to put LIT in the JLT. Won’t make the same mistake twice. And I think the JLT could end up a hot race this year, mainly due to Hendo and Nicholls.